The European integration process is increasingly refracted through the political calculations of key members of the European Union (EU), so the issue of Montenegro's rapprochement with it is no longer a matter of closing negotiation chapters, but rather an assessment of whether it is even profitable to support the country in the current geopolitical climate.
This is how the interlocutors of "Vijesti" answer the question of whether Montenegro, at this stage of negotiations with the EU, should start lobbying for entry into that community in Paris and Berlin, or at all addresses where there is either skepticism towards the expansion of the Union or where there is no unequivocal support for that process.
They say that in the main EU members, France and Germany, EU enlargement is not a priority topic, which, they claim, is evident in the fact that in Berlin, for a long time, no one in power has invested authority or "stepped on the gas" to admit the Western Balkan countries into the common bloc, and it is similar in France, where, they warn, the situation could be even worse if the right-wing parties there win the 2027 elections.
Therefore, the interlocutors add, the question is how, in such a context, new countries can be admitted to the EU, while gaining the support of both citizens and leaders of skeptical countries - primarily France and Germany.
Professor at the University of Graz Florian Bieber, said in September in Podgorica that Brussels is not the place where Montenegro's membership will be decided, but in the 27 parliaments of the EU member states, adding that the main message is that Montenegro is not lobbying in Brussels, but in Paris, Berlin and all member states.
According to a survey of EU citizens' attitudes towards enlargement (Eurobarometer), conducted in mid-year, 51 percent of citizens support Montenegro's membership, with some deviations from one member state to another. The highest levels of support for Montenegro's accession are recorded in Sweden (81 percent), Slovenia (70 percent), Denmark and Croatia (68 percent each). The lowest results were registered in Austria and France (40 percent each), as well as in the Czech Republic (43 percent), followed by Germany (45 percent) and Belgium (49 percent).
Journalist from Bonn Nemanja Rujevic He told "Vijesti" that since the French president came to power Emanuel Macron The EU has a maxim - EU reforms first, then enlargement. However, he notes that reforms within the bloc are not in sight at all.
"From the perspective of the EU's main axis, which is Berlin-Paris, these reforms should include the abolition of unanimous decision-making, i.e. the fact that practically every EU member has a veto right and can block any major decision. They have seen this first from Poland, and recently primarily from (the Hungarian Prime Minister) Viktor Orban", and they got sick of it," explains Rujević.
The EU has been increasingly vocal in recent months, especially in terms of proposals to admit new countries to the EU without veto power. After the Brussels-based Politiko reported in mid-October that, under a proposal to amend the EU membership rules, which is still in its early stages, new countries could join the EU without full voting rights, a similar idea was heard in Germany this week. The chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hojfrajter, said that the possibility of EU membership "with a temporary restriction of the veto right" is being seriously considered as an option for candidate countries, including Montenegro, RTCG reported.
Heufreiter said that major reforms are not needed for the EU to accept Montenegro, "because it is a small country."
"We only have one real problem, and that is the veto. So why don't we make an (accession) agreement with Montenegro - you can be a full member of the EU with one exception. You will sign an agreement that you will not use your veto right until we reform it," Heufreiter said at the Foreign Policy Forum in Berlin.
Ambassador of Germany in Montenegro Peter Felten, said that there will be transitional clauses in the accession agreement with Montenegro.
"All of this is subject to negotiation. Everyone has to agree, the 27 member states and Montenegro, otherwise there is no agreement. The bottom line is that the accession agreement will never make Montenegro a second-class member of the EU," Felten told RTCG on Wednesday.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MVP) did not respond to questions from "Vijesti" yesterday about what strategy the Government will take to explain to EU members why it is important for Montenegro to join the EU, at which addresses it will lobby, and whether it is time to shift the focus to Paris, Berlin and Amsterdam...
The big ones don't want to be blocked by the small ones.
Rujević states that the talk about the veto means, in other words, "that the big ones don't want the small ones to block their decisions," and that, in that sense, they are saying, "there's no way we're expanding, so we're going to take in I don't know how many small countries that will then also be able to block us."
He claims that "nothing will come of the reform within the EU", because Orban would have to agree to having his veto power taken away, and "he won't agree to that". He recalls that the idea of an EU in "concentric circles" or "multi-speed" has appeared from time to time, where the question is raised whether this is then "real" EU membership, whether it is some modest consolation prize, etc.
Journalist for the French "Mond Diplomatique" Ana Otašević, claims that enlargement is not popular in France and that, according to the latest public opinion polls from September, only 43 percent of French people and 49 percent of Germans support enlargement, compared to the European average of 56 percent.
She told "Vijesti" that analysts in France are saying that "nothing serious is on the table" and that the question is how, in such a context, the integration of new members can even take place, while gaining the support of both the citizens and leaders of those member states.
Otašević states that the dynamics coming from European institutions are different, because since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the issue of enlargement has become a political priority.
"One thing is the political messages coming from Brussels, which are supposed to encourage enthusiasm and they have, so countries such as Montenegro and Albania have the impression that this is a process that is about to happen," Otašević underlined.
According to her, the EU's institutional framework, as envisaged by the current treaties, is not adapted to the possibility of a major enlargement by 2030, especially in terms of decision-making, and "unanimity and retention of the veto in the area of foreign policy or the presence of one commissioner per member state are real obstacles."
Membership with prerequisites
Rujević said that he could imagine that, if a decision is made to move towards a relatively rapid EU enlargement, "which, globally speaking, is actually terribly slow", Montenegro could become part of the Union in the coming years. He pointed out that it was conceivable that it would be a kind of "membership with preconditions", that Montenegro would not be a full member for some time, because it would not have the right of veto like other members.
"I cannot be sure that EU enlargement will be considered at all. Ultimately, for that to happen, the leaders of European countries, for example Germany, must at some point come out before their citizens and say - look, we support the entry of Montenegro, Serbia, Ukraine because of this and that...", the interlocutor stated.
He reminds that, according to the latest polls, public opinion in Europe varies greatly, and that this is also related to various crises, from economic to migration, so, he emphasizes, it is thankless to predict anything. He added that, in the end, it may turn out that the Union has somehow "castrated" itself, by giving up enlargement as a powerful mechanism to attract countries to its side to become more inclusive, and that enlargement is like "a slaughtered chicken."
"It's still running, it seems like something is happening, but in fact it's dead," says Rujević.
Responding to the question of whether Montenegro should start lobbying for membership in Berlin and Paris, Otašević said that this, above all, depends on the evolution of internal politics in those countries themselves.
"It's not a matter of whether certain conditions have been met, whether chapters have been closed, but whether the policies of those countries themselves will assess that it is worthwhile for them as a foreign policy move in the context of this geopolitical situation," she said.
Coordinated approach during member visits
In early November, the government adopted information on the promotion of Montenegro's membership in the EU countries for the period 2025-2026, which states that the promotion is "a joint task of the entire executive branch."
"The process of promoting Montenegro's membership in the EU should be viewed as a joint task of the entire Government, which assumes that all ministers and representatives of state administration bodies consistently communicate key messages about Montenegro's European path during their visits to EU member states, public appearances and media engagements," the document states.
Such a coordinated approach, it is added, will contribute to "greater visibility of reform efforts, strengthening the country's credibility as a candidate for membership, and creating broader support among EU member states."
The Government believes that strategic and targeted communication towards political actors within the EU and towards the public in the member states, as well as towards the domestic public, is one of the key tools for the successful completion and preservation of the "credibility of the process". Strengthening political dialogue and bilateral cooperation with EU member states, as they state, ensures the smooth dynamics of the process of closing negotiation chapters.
"Even when certain issues are not formally part of the final benchmarks, their inclusion in the messages significantly contributes to strengthening the credibility of the process and sends a clear message that Montenegro consistently strives to strengthen cooperation and European values," the information reads.
The communication strategy and ongoing activity will, it is added, gain in importance as the membership negotiation process draws to a close, and in anticipation of the procedures for ratifying the accession treaty.
"Such a coordinated and dedicated approach should result in strengthening political dialogue with EU members, but also ensure the necessary preconditions for consolidating the capacities necessary for finalizing the integration path," the document states.
Negotiations on Montenegro's accession to the EU began on June 29, 2012. Since then, Podgorica has opened all chapters (33) and temporarily closed seven, three of which at the end of last year and one in June of this year.
The government expects to close five more chapters by the end of this year, and the remaining ones in 2026, so that Montenegro can join the EU in 2028.
Clear, targeted and current messages for individual members
The Government believes that strengthening public support in EU member states through communication with the international public should be directed not only towards all levels of decision-making in member states, but also towards other relevant actors in society.
"In addition to general messages that apply to all member states, it is necessary to formulate clear, targeted and current messages that would be designed for individual EU member states, and that would take into account the attitude of the specific state and its citizens towards the enlargement policy in the current geopolitical context, as well as towards Montenegro as the leading candidate and the first next EU member state," the information states.
Key messages for the continuation of political dialogue, it is added, should be developed through communication theses that will be regularly, quarterly, and more often if necessary, updated and adjusted to the development of relations, the context and the degree of progress achieved, but also based on the political environment in the EU member states themselves.
"Uniform and coordinated messages will further strengthen confidence in the consistency of Montenegro's European path, both at home and abroad," the Government said.
Rujević: A sweet-talking story about perspective, without concrete works
Nemanja Rujević said that in Germany, for a long time, no one in power - and here, he says, he is primarily thinking of former Chancellor Angela Merkel - has pledged their authority, nor has they "stepped on the gas" to admit the Western Balkan countries into the EU.
"That was never the focus. It was a sweet talk about the perspective, however, without concrete actions. On the other hand, we know that there are countries in the region, first and foremost Serbia, but also some others, that are actually guided by the logic - 'we would like to join, and they would like to accept us', and that they actually do not like, for example, the judiciary to be free...", Rujević stated.
He stated that, in that situation, it was constantly being put aside for years, so that, for example, the current German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, “who doesn't really care much about the region, made a shocking statement at a forum, saying that he was in favor of economic integration.”
"So, just for inclusion in the EU market, and here he put the Western Balkans and Ukraine in the same basket, which almost the day before yesterday received candidate status, and we all know why. This showed a kind of disinterest that spilled over into the work of Friedrich Merz's government, and in circles in Berlin that deal with our region, the question is being asked - whether they are in favor of enlargement at all or not," he assessed.
Rujević said that there is no clear signal, stating that what some opposition members or some ambassadors are saying does not mean that the executive branch in Berlin is clearly and loudly in favor of this or that model.
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