The ideas that are increasingly being heard from the EU - about restricting the rights of potential members of that community - should not come as a surprise, because behind them lies the fear of repeating the "Hungarian scenario", that is, the two-decade practice of reaping benefits from the EU, while systematically undermining common policies, say the interlocutors of "Vijesti".
When asked why such proposals are so frequent, the political consultant and political scientist Aleksandar Music responds by saying that there are two reasons for this. The first, he says, is ideological. Europeans, he explains, “have had a bitter experience with the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban raised caution for any future cuckoo eggs within the Union itself”.
The second reason, says Music, is functional. According to him, Europe is aware that, due to the sensitive geopolitical moment, it must accelerate the admission of new members, and that it does not have the luxury of time and "feeling around" like it did 15 or 20 years ago. Therefore, claims the editorial staff, some diplomats are considering how to accelerate the admission of new members, while still incorporating some protective mechanisms so that this accelerated admission does not "backfire".
Analyst of the European Stability Initiative (ESI) from Berlin Adnan Ćerimagić, said that ideas about certain temporary derogations from rights - whether it be freedom of movement for workers, voting rights or mechanisms for enhanced post-membership supervision in the area of the rule of law - should not come as a surprise. The reason, he said, is clear.
"Within the EU, there is a tangible fear of repeating the experience with Hungary - both in terms of democracy and the rule of law, and in the context of foreign policy and abuse of the veto right. Whether an agreement will be reached among the member states on such solutions, and what it will be like - remains to be seen," Ćerimagić told the editorial staff.
Veto, probationary period, transitional clauses...
The EU has had a problem with Orban for years due to the erosion of the rule of law and democracy in Hungary, accusations of misuse of European funds, frequent veto blocking of key Union decisions, and distancing from a common policy towards Russia and Ukraine.
After the Brussels-based Politico reported in mid-October that, under a proposal to amend the EU membership rules, which is still in its early stages, new countries could join the Union without full voting rights, a similar idea was recently heard in Germany. The chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hojfrajter, stated that the possibility of EU membership "with a temporary restriction of the veto right" is being seriously considered as an option for candidate countries, including Montenegro, RTCG reported.
Ambassador of Germany in Montenegro Peter Felten He said that the accession agreement with Montenegro will contain “transitional clauses.” This means that, as he stated, “during the transition period,” other member states will want to protect themselves if the newly joined country fails to fulfill its obligations under the accession agreement, he told RTCG last week.
Along with the idea of limiting the right of veto, the message from the European Commissioner for Enlargement also attracted great attention among the Montenegrin public. Marta Kos - that new EU members could be put on a "probationary period" to prevent them from acting like "Russia's Trojan horse" upon joining the Union.
They are not afraid of Vucic's players.
Aleksandar Music states that he does not believe that limiting the veto right in the case of Montenegro is being proposed out of fear of the pro-Serbian coalition in power, close to the President of Serbia. Aleksandar VučićThe interlocutor says that awareness "of the malignancy of Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) towards Montenegro is weak outside of Montenegro itself, and that this is very dangerous.
"The primary reason for this is the fact that France (and until recently Germany) have been extremely patronizing Vučić and his regime, which has been buying their favor with billions in debt - which Serbia will pay off for decades," explains Music.
In this sense, he adds, the Union, on the surface level, condemned the violence of the Vučić regime with declarations and lamentations, while below the surface, at the actual level of power, it still kept him in power.
"Vučić's regime is obsessively (and cunningly) engaged in (irrelevant) propaganda for a reason (Toni's) Picula (European Parliament rapporteur for Serbia), uses it to throw sand in people's eyes, and keeps quiet about those in Europe who really decide about it...", said Music.
A secondary reason why awareness "of the malignancy of the SNS" is weak outside Montenegro is, as he notes, the fact that the Montenegrin opposition has no serious contacts at the European level, "has no one to talk to, hangs out mostly with the remnants of (useless) Yugoslav remnants, and when it attacks Vučić and his servants in Montenegro - it uses vocabulary and arguments that few people hear in Europe."
"If you attack Mandić with a story from 10 years ago, about him being a pro-Russian player, and the Europeans know full well that he is a servant of Vučić who buys Western European favor with billions of euros - no one will listen to your story," Music underlines.
Therefore, as he adds, "the fate of Vučić's servants in Montenegro is tied to Vučić's relationship with Europe, not to issues of America and Russia."
According to Music, Mandic is simultaneously doing everything he can to improve his image through contacts in both Europe and America.
"When you combine these dynamics - you get an impression on European and world addresses that increasingly diverges from the real (malignant) situation in the country, and that is a huge problem for the future and health of Montenegro. Few people in Montenegro understand this at all. Most think that it will resolve itself by joining the EU. It won't, it may even get worse and be sealed forever," he warned.
Asked whether the recent signing of an agreement on cooperation in the field of infrastructure development between Montenegro and Hungary influenced the idea of limiting the veto right, Music replied that perhaps this move by Podgorica was not perceived as that important after all.
"But the overall incorrect Hungarian behavior as such over the past 20 years - where all the benefits of the EU were exploited to the maximum, and it did not participate in the burdens and risks, but even proactively undermined them - is the dominant reason for such thinking," said Music.
The finale of the negotiations opens discussions
Adnan Ćerimagić argues that Montenegro's progress, as well as the willingness of member state governments to support it in the final stages of negotiations, inevitably opens up discussions within the EU on the conditions under which they are ready to accept new members. He recalls that Podgorica is knocking on the Union's door after the longest period of non-enlargement, in a context marked by the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, the war in Ukraine, changed and tense transatlantic relations, and a strong sense of security threat from Russia and political and economic challenges posed by China.
"In such an environment, it is entirely expected that part of the discussion will be dedicated to the broader context, but also to long-standing debates about the future organization of the EU itself, its budget, policies and decision-making procedures," said Ćerimagić.
Therefore, he adds, the various ideas that are emerging in public should not be surprising. He says that they should also be viewed in the context of the broader debate on EU adaptation, the preparation of the next multi-annual budgetary period, which is taking place in parallel with the talks on Montenegro's membership.
"However, it is important to take concrete steps first. The formation of a working group (to draft the accession treaty) represents the beginning of a process in which member states will present their positions and proposals. It is already clear that these talks will be neither simple nor devoid of political emotions, and it is difficult to predict their outcome in advance," the interlocutor noted.
Ćerimagić points out that the most important news for Montenegro's European path from Berlin, which could be clearly heard in recent weeks, is the public and unequivocal support for the plan to form a working group to draft the Accession Treaty by the end of the year. If, he says, all 27 member states agree on this, it will, according to him, be a strong, encouraging and at the same time procedurally and politically very important message of support for the efforts of the authorities in Podgorica.
"This message will not be a gift or an act of goodwill, but the result of Montenegro's concrete and intensive work on preparations for EU membership," the interlocutor assessed, recalling that, according to the European Commission's assessment, Montenegro has made greater progress in the level of preparedness within 33 negotiation chapters in the last 12 months than in the five-year period from 2015 to 2020.
Ćerimagić states that there are still several chapters where, in addition to the key areas of the rule of law, institutional stability, and the fight against corruption and organized crime, additional and serious efforts will be necessary. This applies, among other things, to environmental protection, freedom of movement of workers, as well as social policy and employment.
"The willingness of member states to begin talks on the content of the accession treaty should, in this sense, be seen as a strong incentive to continue and accelerate reforms, but also as a sign of confidence that Podgorica has the capacity to complete this work," he concluded.
Negotiations on Montenegro's accession to the EU began on June 29, 2012. Since then, Podgorica has opened all chapters (33) and temporarily closed seven, three of which at the end of last year and one in June of this year.
The government expects to close five more chapters by the end of this year, and the remaining ones in 2026, so that Montenegro can join the EU in 2028.
Musić: The idea of a veto has not yet taken root among the leadership of the strongest members
Aleksandar Music assesses that, at this moment, it is not realistic for all EU members to accept the idea of limiting the right of veto, because, he says, this proposal is not yet dominant among the leadership of the most powerful members of the Union.
He also states that the proposal might not literally create "first- and "second-tier" states (the benefits of membership for new members would still be enormous), but it would send an unhealthy message, which is contrary to the idea of a united European continent.
"That would certainly be used for propaganda by those who despise (any) idea of Europe and European civilization as such," Music underlined.
Ćerimagić: Montenegrin diplomacy must be up to the task
Adnan Ćerimagić says that Montenegrin diplomacy and political leadership, both the government and the opposition, must be up to the task. He emphasizes that it is necessary to continuously prove through clear arguments and concrete moves that the reforms are credible, but also that Montenegro is a serious and reliable foreign policy and security partner of the EU.
"Every move or statement will be carefully watched and may be used as an argument for introducing stricter provisions in the accession treaty, including issues such as unfilled ambassadorial positions in EU member states. Finally, it is important to emphasize that Podgorica will also have the opportunity to decide whether it is ready to accept the final EU offer," said Ćerimagić.
Pantelić: No veto rights only for the admission of new members
Journalist Željko Pantelić, in yesterday's column in "Vijesti", citing sources well-informed about Montenegro's negotiation process with the EU, wrote that Podgorica will not have the right to veto only one thing that "native countries in the European bloc" have - and that is the ability to veto the negotiation process with other candidate countries.
"In other words, Montenegro will not be able to realize its interests and goals in bilateral relations using the negotiation process, as Croatia or Bulgaria do for North Macedonia, with the Western Balkan candidates for EU accession, plus Ukraine and Moldova. This will also apply to Albania and every future EU member state," explained Pantelić.
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