Just 24 hours after the message from the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that the writing of the treaty on Montenegro's accession to the European Union (EU) should begin, France, without prior announcements or hints, blocked Podgorica from closing two chapters in negotiations with Brussels.
This means that Montenegro will most likely "cross out" three chapters by the end of the year - instead of five, as the government has recently announced.
The "red light" for two chapters - 11 (Agriculture and Rural Development) and 13 (Fisheries) - was given by French representatives yesterday at the sessions of the EU Council bodies - the Council Working Group (COELA) and the Committee of Permanent Representatives of the Member States (COREPER II).
According to unofficial information from "Vijesti", the French claimed at the sessions of these bodies that two chapters were not ready for "ticking" and that they were not sufficiently harmonized with the EU acquis, without, however, stating specific reasons for their position.
Although France's decision can be changed at the ministerial level (ministers of foreign affairs or European affairs within the EU General Affairs Council), where the final decision on (not) closing the chapter will be made on December 16, the chances of that happening are very small. Especially since the EU Council officially announced an intergovernmental conference last night, the agenda of which will include decisions on the remaining three chapters - 3 (Right of establishment and freedom to provide services), 4 (Free movement of capital) and 6 (Commercial law).
A purely political decision?
The reasons for the French move - at a time when Berlin, the second most important address in the EU, gave the first concrete and strong hint that the final phase of Montenegro's accession should begin - can only be speculated for now. "Vijesti" sources speculate on two scenarios. The first, that the leader of France Emanuel Macron, whose party faces an electoral battle to remain in the presidential position in 2027, has decided to put aside the topic of EU enlargement, which does not have majority support in the local society, while the opposition and right-wing National Front strongly opposes the expansion of that community.
The second alleged scenario is that it is about "helping" the President of Serbia. Aleksandar Vučić, who two days ago asked Brussels officials to allow the entire Western Balkans to join the EU at the same time.
However, the facts say the following: that Paris, or rather the Ministry of Agriculture there, gave a positive opinion on the "redrawing" of all five chapters at the moment when it was being discussed in the European Commission, which proposed their closure, and that yesterday, out of the blue, "lowered the ramp" almost without explanation. Is that enough to raise the question - is this a purely political decision?
In any case, France's move could - if it is not changed by the intergovernmental conference scheduled for three days - cost Podgorica dearly. That is, it could slow down its entry into the Union. And this could happen if Paris, remaining on the same course, does not give its consent to the creation of a working group that should write an accession treaty with Montenegro. The formation of that team is planned by the end of the year.
This is, for now, only a potential problem. The real and most important one is: how does a country, which will have closed 10 out of 33 chapters as of Tuesday, after 13 years of negotiations, expect to meet the goal it set itself by the end of 2026 - to "cross out" all the remaining ones?
Slower progress and long-term membership
Professor at the University of Graz Florian Bieber, told "Vijesti" that France's concerns regarding EU enlargement are related to the elections in that country, which are expected in 2027.
"So we have a discrepancy between the German 'green light' and the French 'red light.' The French decision seems to be motivated by domestic issues," he stated.
Recalling that, according to data from the Eurobarometer survey, published in early September, 40 percent of French people support Montenegro's membership, civic activist Dina Bajramspahić says this is not new, but a traditional aversion of the French to EU expansion to the Western Balkans.
She therefore says that the Government and Parliament should be aware of this and that they should have "a special strategy for winning the support of the French people and French institutions."
"... Which allowed the process (of negotiations) to flow smoothly, until it started to become more serious," Bajramspahić added.
She told the editorial staff that for months there has been uncritical euphoria in Montenegro, as if it was guaranteed that the country would become a member of the EU in 2028, which is the government's goal. Milojko Spajić (Europe Now Movement).
"... Only with precaution can we avoid surprises and defend the strategic state interest. I warned that it is necessary to consider unfavorable scenarios more agilely in order to react promptly to obstacles on the way. I say this precisely because I am most strongly rooting for our success," added Bajramspahić.
The interviewee stated that in Montenegro there is an ignoring of all unfavorable signals that must be paid attention to in order to be prevented. First of all, she says, the fact that Montenegro has not received the "green light" from one of the key EU members until yesterday.
"The silence is a political message they have been sending us in recent months and to which we should have reacted," claims Bajramspahić.
She pointed out that, since the country was "brought into a bind", closing three chapters seemed like a concession and a gift, rather than something deserved.
"It doesn't matter what arguments will be used to justify the blocking of two chapters. The message is not technical, but political: that Montenegro needs to progress more slowly and that membership is not as certain as is claimed in political phrases. However, this is fundamental and we should have known this ourselves and acted accordingly," Bajramspahić concluded.
Editor-in-chief of the “European Western Balkans” portal, Nemanja Todorović Štiplija, told "Vijesti" that France has reservations about Montenegro's accelerated path to the EU, because it expects a reform of that community, that is, changes in areas related to the enlargement process. He claims that this is an important topic for Paris.
"It is, in a way, slowing down the process, but everything will certainly fall into place in the next year and a half, if it has the opportunity. It is also important for the Montenegrin government to see what France's comments are, especially on the chapters on agriculture (whose closure is blocked), in order to remove these things," he said.
However, the Montenegrin side has so far not received any feedback on what France finds objectionable in the blocked chapters - if anything.
Not six, not seven, not nine
The fact that a "ramp" to two chapters is being prepared was first announced yesterday around noon by the chairman of the European Integration Committee and MP from the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), Ivan Vukovic. He said at a session of that parliamentary body that this would happen “due to the opposition of an influential member”, calling on the Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorcevic (Europe Now Movement) to explain what it is about.
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She said that Montenegro has fulfilled every obligation regarding five chapters.
"I believe that on December 16th, we will have reason to celebrate a joint success of the entire administration - the Government and the Parliament. I believe that a lot has been accomplished in 2025," she said.
The Government has repeatedly announced that the five chapters mentioned will be closed at the intergovernmental conference, and that all obligations in this regard have been fulfilled.
However, Paris' decision is certainly a "cold shower" for the authorities, especially considering the fact that its officials have been bidding for six, seven or nine chapters to be closed this year.
The highest government representatives remained silent yesterday after "Vijesti" reported that France had blocked the closing of two chapters. The only one who spoke out was the Minister of Agriculture. Vladimir Jokovic (Socialist People's Party), whose two chapters "suffered." He told the newspaper that everything that was required had been done and that there may be "reasons that are not related to agriculture itself" behind France's decision.
Felten: Level reached to follow through on agreement
The move by Paris completely overshadowed Friedrich Merz's announcement the day before yesterday that Montenegro "should move to the next step" - drafting an accession agreement.
"I want to make it clear here: it is with Montenegro, which has probably made the most progress among the candidates, that we can now move on to the next step and start working on an accession agreement soon. This is also in our interest, because the closer we are connected, the better we can act together in Europe. This applies in particular to limiting illegal migration. This is of great importance for our two countries," said Merz in Berlin, at a press conference with the Croatian Prime Minister. Andrej Plenković.
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Ambassador of Germany in Montenegro Peter Felten, told Vijesti that Merc confirmed Berlin's position - that the EU accession process is based on results.
"Ahead of important conferences in Brussels - the EU-Montenegro Intergovernmental Conference on 16 December, the EU-Western Balkans Summit on 17 December and the European Council on 18 December, the Federal Chancellor confirmed Germany's position that the EU accession process for candidate countries is performance-based and that Montenegro's progress in fulfilling the accession criteria has reached a level that, in our opinion, allows the EU to start the process of drafting an accession treaty with Montenegro," he stated.
Felten's response states that this message was also conveyed by the Federal Foreign Minister. Johan Vadeful to his Montenegrin interlocutors and the Montenegrin public, during his visit to Podgorica on November 17th.
Commenting on Merco's message, Florian Biber said that this is good news for Montenegro.
"This is the clearest commitment from German Chancellor Merz to Montenegro's accession to the EU. This is significant, because his government has not been as openly supportive of enlargement as previous German governments," he pointed out.
The interlocutor stated that he also sees Merc's message as directed towards countries that might be hesitant. He adds that it was particularly crucial to send a signal to Croatia that bilateral issues should not hinder the accession process, which is currently the case.
Membership far from certain
Vice President of the European Stabilization Initiative (ESI) Christoph Bender, told the newspaper that since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there has been a rhetorical shift regarding EU enlargement, and that even previous skeptics have emphasized that they now consider EU enlargement a strategic goal.
"Merz's statement should be seen in that context. This does not mean, however, that Montenegro's accession is a done deal. There is still significant resistance to EU enlargement within the German leadership that needs to be overcome," he argues.
Bender stated that it is similar in France, explaining that the ruling leadership there believes that its room for maneuver is limited due to the strengthening of the far right.
He stresses, however, that Montenegro is the only candidate country that has a realistic chance of being admitted to the EU before 2030. He argues that this is possible, but far from certain. He says that this will depend partly on the political dynamics in the EU member states, but also to a large extent on Montenegro itself.
"The better prepared Montenegro is by the end of 2026, the harder it will be to reject or delay its accession," Bender said.
The interviewee said that, since the goal of membership is so close, it is worth "giving it all" in the last year, forgetting narrow party interests for a moment, and working together with full force towards a common national goal.
Reply to Vučić
For Nemanja Todorović Štiplija, the German Chancellor's message is a positive and very important signal, especially since, he says, it comes from the largest and most influential EU member state. He pointed out that such an announcement confirms that politics based on the individual results of candidates is still considered relevant in Brussels and Berlin.
"I think that this statement is also a kind of response to President Vučić's proposal that all Western Balkan countries enter the EU at the same time, an idea that no longer suits either Montenegro or Albania, which are making realistic and measurable progress in the negotiations. In that sense, one of the key European actors had to draw a clear line and put an end to such politically frivolous proposals," said Todorović Štiplija.
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He claims that "the timing is not coincidental," stating that the EU is in the process of redefining its enlargement policy, under pressure from geopolitical circumstances, security challenges, and internal debates about the credibility of the process.
"The message from Berlin comes at exactly the moment when it was necessary to reaffirm the principle of merit," the source added.
From the Office of the President of Montenegro Jakov Milatović They welcomed the German Chancellor's statement, stating that at the European Political Community Summit in Copenhagen on October 2, the head of state "clearly called" on Merz and other European leaders to begin drafting the accession treaty.
Joković: I don't know why France waited until the 12th minute
Vladimir Joković told the media three days ago that “Montenegro will close two chapters in the agriculture sector next week.” That will not happen, and the Minister of Agriculture claims that his department has done everything that was required of them.
"Here the facts are completely on our side. Everything that the European Commission asked of us, we have completed. The Commission gave a positive opinion on both chapters more than a month ago and everything that was asked of us, we have completed. Twenty-six out of 27 EU countries, including Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain, Poland... have given a positive opinion and there are no problems in their view and the Commission's view," Joković told "Vijesti".
He added that he is not sure why there was a wait of "12 minutes" (for France's decision), and that there may be reasons that are not related to agriculture itself.
"So, why didn't France vote when we did everything that was asked of us and why did they wait until the last day or the last two days to make a statement about it? I don't know why that is, but I know that everything is finished and I think this is a decision for some other reason than just agriculture," Joković said.
Spajić in Berlin and Paris next week
Prime Minister Spajić, who was in the United Arab Emirates yesterday, will be in Germany and France next week. At the government session the day before yesterday, platforms on this were adopted. During a two-day working visit to Berlin on December 17 and 18, Spajić will meet with German Transport Minister Patrick Schneider and sign a declaration that will enable mutual recognition of driving licenses, and a visit to the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is also planned.
Also, from 18 to 20 December, the Head of Government will pay a working visit to the headquarters of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) in Paris. On that occasion, Spajić will meet with the newly elected Director-General of UNESCO, Khaled El-Enany, and the Director of the UNESCO World Heritage Centre, Lazar Elundu Assom.
It is unclear whether Spajić will be at the intergovernmental conference in Brussels on Tuesday.
Todorović Štiplija: Germany speaks specifically about Montenegro for the first time
Nemanja Todorović Štiplija said that in the previous six months, France was not ready to support the start of drafting an accession treaty with Montenegro.
"However, I do not believe that this is the final position of Paris. During the coming period, especially during the Cypriot presidency of the EU, I expect this issue to be reopened, with more active engagement of the Montenegrin authorities towards the French authorities, in order to overcome any reservations," he added.
On the other hand, the interlocutor stated that Germany had previously sent positive political signals to Montenegro, but that the difference was that now, for the first time, it was talking so clearly and unambiguously about the next, very concrete step in the accession process.
"This is no longer general political support or a diplomatic phrase, but a message that has both procedural and political weight. That is precisely why Merc's statement is significant, because it shows that Montenegro is truly viewed in some key European capitals as a candidate that is ready to enter that final phase of negotiations," concluded Todorović Štiplija.
What Macron told Milatović and Spajić about the EU
In February 2024, during a working visit to France, Prime Minister Spajić met with Macron, who, as he announced at the time, told him that Montenegro was "the first in a series of countries that will join the EU."
"A phenomenal meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, during which we felt France's strong support on our path to the EU," Spajić wrote at the time on the Iks network.
President Milatović met with Macron at the end of October, at the Paris Peace Forum.
"During the meeting, President Macron highlighted France's strong support for Montenegro's path towards EU membership, emphasizing that France remains a reliable partner and true ally in achieving that goal," Milatović's office said at the time.
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