France's decision to block Montenegro from closing two negotiation chapters is political, said former Minister of European Affairs and member of BiEPAG Jovana Marović, adding that the country is still mostly guided by the mood of its public opinion.
Montenegro will likely close three of the expected five chapters in negotiations with the European Union (EU) by the end of the year, as French representatives in EU working bodies blocked the closure of chapters 11 - Agriculture and Rural Development and 13 - Fisheries on Friday.
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Marović told the MINA agency that it had been clear for weeks that there was no consensus among the EU member states on closing all five chapters that were discussed at the sessions of EU working bodies and on which a common position was established.
"Despite this, public discourse in Montenegro was marked by the belief that the process was irreversible, rapid and almost complete," Marović stated.
According to her, in this discrepancy between the political reality in Brussels and the messages sent by Montenegrin institutions, it became obvious that there was neither a serious lobbying strategy, nor crisis management, nor a willingness to take responsibility for failing to foresee possible risks.
"These are all things that need to be thought about more deeply and far-reachingly, regardless of how quickly we move forward in the negotiation process after this blockade," Marović pointed out.
She believes that France's blockade is political.
"Despite the fact that I am sure we still have a lot to do to meet the conditions, because all of this could have been defined through transitional periods," Marović said.
She said that the message was clear – that there were no shortcuts and that the negotiations would not be closed so easily.
"We can always find a new shortcoming in meeting the conditions, and thus reduce the story to merit, and not to the lack of political will for enlargement to happen," warned Marović.
As she added, all of this would be legitimate if it had not been continuously heard from all sides in the EU that Montenegro has a chance of becoming a member in 2028, including the recent statement by the Commissioner for Enlargement that the country is "on track to close negotiations by the end of 2026."
Marović also reminded that the European Commission has assessed that the conditions for closing these chapters have been met, with it being more competent to assess the substance.
She added that everything would be legitimate and that the French Ministry of Agriculture had not given the green light to close the chapter.
"And that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz did not say the day before yesterday that the preparation of the Accession Treaty of Montenegro should begin soon, and that the same thing about the Accession Treaty was not mentioned in the draft conclusions of the EU Council," Marović stated.
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She said that Paris' move calls into question the expansion of the Union.
"This move by France reopens numerous questions about whether and when enlargement will happen at all, because it shows that this country is still guided first and foremost by the mood of its public opinion, which is traditionally not in favor of enlargement," said Marović.
She assessed that it is obvious that the Western Balkans remain the only training ground for French President Emmanuel Macron to practice his own importance.
According to Marović, the hot-and-cold game between France and Germany continues, which, as she stated, has become almost predictable.
She stressed that, despite optimistic statements, there has never been an EU vision of what the next enlargement should look like.
Marović pointed out that the situation is being further complicated by yesterday's media reports about a peace agreement that would provide for Ukraine to join the EU in 2027.
"Although such a scenario currently seems impossible, if it were to potentially occur, it would further complicate the entry of other countries precisely because of the need for internal reform," believes Marović.
She said that it is interesting that France has no problem with always being the blocking country.
"We can only hope that the title of brakeman will not be replaced by the title of gravedigger of the enlargement process," Marović emphasized.
She stated that it was also symptomatic that Serbian officials on Thursday were racing to make statements that Montenegro's membership in the EU was not certain.
"Well, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of direct lobbying from the highest level to make this happen," said Marović.
She said that Montenegro's goal is unchanged, but that the path to that goal must be redefined.
Marović pointed out that this goal can no longer rest on assumptions, optimistic interpretations and the belief that the political will in the EU is permanent and unquestionable.
"This goal implies mobilizing all available capacities, a clearly defined and realistic strategy, serious lobbying, institutional responsibility, and the willingness to lead the process even in conditions of stagnation, blockades, and open political messages that are not always encouraging," said Marović.
According to her, only with such an approach can Montenegro show that it is a credible partner, regardless of how ready the Union is to recognize that credibility at a given moment.
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