The world order is increasingly moving towards unpredictability, said former Minister of Foreign Affairs and diplomat Srđan Darmanović.
He made this statement at the panel discussion "The End of Wars and (or) the Beginning of a New Order? The Middle East, Ukraine and the Power Games", organized by the University of Montenegro (UCG), in cooperation with the Center for International Politics, Diplomacy and European Integration.
The panel discussion was held in the UCG Rectorate building, and in addition to Darmanović, the participants were former ambassador and president of the Center for International Politics, Diplomacy and European Integration Miodrag Lekić and teaching associate at the Faculty of Political Sciences of UCG Mladen Grgić, and was moderated by journalist and president of the UCG Alumni Association Srdan Kosović.
Darmanović pointed out that, since the Donald Trump administration took power in the United States (USA) for the second time, "nothing can surprise us anymore."
"I think this foreign policy strategy is inseparable from US domestic policy," he said.
He referred to Steven Levitsky, who said that "competitive authoritarianism" is in effect in the US.
He added that Europe has been given a place it did not have in previous strategies, and that under the security umbrella of the US, Europe has been developing democracy.
"We are coming to the question of whether there is still a political West?" he said.
As he pointed out, a document can be a turning point, or it can simply end up in the archives.
Kosović said that Kamala Harris' nomination for US president was undemocratic within the Democratic Party itself.
Lekić pointed out that internal issues often spill over into external ones and vice versa.
"In our understanding of the West, it was first rotten, then brilliant. Russia - first a mother, then a hegemon," he said.
He added that the collapse of international law cannot be defended and recalled the US attacks on Iraq, Syria... without a decision by the United Nations (UN) Security Council (SC).
He pointed out that in 2007, Russia warned that "red lines were being crossed" by NATO's expansion eastward.
"This is where the second Cold War begins, not because of these details, but because of the economic growth of the global south. It meant that 'the West will not rule the world alone'. Changes are taking place that mean the collapse of that previous system," he said.
Comparing Trump to former US President Woodrow Wilson, he pointed out that "one can see a decline in culture and standards."
As he added, multilateralism must be respected.
Grgić stated that when Wilson came to Europe, he believed that it was living in the past, that it did not accept the new order.
He added that Europe is the richest market for both the US and China, but that the EU poses a problem because of its rules.
"Trump no longer cares whether something is a democracy or not. He doesn't even consider the EU a democracy, but rather says that it negatively affects freedom of speech, the independence of its members...", he said.
Grgić announced that Russia no longer poses a threat to the US, but that he expects Europe to find common ground with that country.
He added that the issue of Taiwan, which produces 80 percent of microchips, is important for the US, but also that the last congress of the Communist Party of China concluded that economic growth is not a priority, but internal security.
Darmanović pointed out that democracies do not go to war with each other.
"A series of military coups has returned to Africa. There have been six or seven in the last three years...", he said, adding that the trend of autocratization is inexorable, and that according to data from Freedom House, there are more autocratic states today than in 2004.
He also addressed the case of Israel and Palestine, adding that it is necessary for Benjamin Netanyahu to remain Prime Minister of Israel so that he does not end up in court, perhaps even in prison.
Speaking about Russia, he said that all parties in the Russian Duma parliament are "pro-Kremlin".
"The USSR was more predictable than today's Russia... I fear that we are moving towards a system that will be less and less predictable. I don't think the conflict in Ukraine will end soon. Russia is doing well, it is conquering little by little. It will not conquer everything, but it is making progress and has no reason to end the conflict, and we are constantly receiving messages that 'it is almost over'. Stalin's doctrine was that people are the least valuable capital. The same is true with China," he said.
Lekić pointed out that China has never declared war on European countries, while Great Britain has done so three times.
Responding to the question of who is the economic winner of the current wars, Grgić pointed out that many wars, such as Sudan, are not mentioned.
"Our great ally the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, private armies from Russia and Ukraine are involved there... These groups are being financed thanks to these new centers of power... Diamonds from Sudan are being sold on the stock exchange in the Emirates," he said.
Grgić pointed out that Russia has not made great progress, but also that Ukraine had problems before the war, such as corruption.
He added that the Baltic countries and Poland consider themselves the next target.
Lekić said that European countries have attacked Russia several times throughout history.
"It turns into consciousness, whether it's rational or not," he said.
"The West underestimated Russia's warnings and bears responsibility, and Ukraine has been a target like a geostrategic chessboard," he said.
He added that almost all European countries that are members of NATO have agreed to allocate five percent to defense, but that he is not sure that they will achieve this.
Grgić pointed out that "the victory will probably be Pyrrhic" and that it will "depend on Chinese production."
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