If Iceland reactivates negotiations with the European Union (EU), it would be a strong political signal that enlargement is once again attractive for highly developed European countries, but it would not mean a change in the agenda that would push Montenegro into the background, according to Vijesti's interlocutors.
Editor-in-chief of the European Western Balkans portal, Nemanja Todorović Štiplija He said that it is realistic to expect Iceland to close the process faster than most candidates, probably within two years, but that does not mean that Montenegro would be sidelined.
"On the contrary, it is much more likely that the EU would lead both processes in parallel, with Montenegro remaining the most advanced candidate from the Western Balkans and its pace continuing to depend mostly on its own reforms, not on Iceland's," said Todorović Štiplija.
An analyst from the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI) also believes that Montenegro's accession process depends primarily on domestic reforms and commitments, not on Iceland. Adnan Ćerimagić.
He says that the accession of Iceland and Montenegro as a package could facilitate ratification, "but it is too early to talk about a concrete scenario."
Prime Minister of Iceland Kristrun Frostadotir announced last week that the country would hold a referendum in the “coming months” on whether to reopen accession talks with the EU. The talks were frozen in 2013, and interest in the EU has risen again due to rising living costs, the war in Ukraine and threats from the US president. Donald Trump to annex Greenland which is geographically close to Iceland.
Icelanders are further concerned by the statement Billy Long, the US ambassador to Reykjavik, who, as reported by Deutsche Welle, joked in front of several members of Congress that Iceland could soon become the 52nd US state, and he might be its governor.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iceland, which has a population of about 400, demanded an official explanation, social media was flooded with criticism, and thousands of citizens signed a petition to deny him accreditation. Under pressure, Long softened his stance, saying he had not meant it seriously and apologizing to anyone who felt offended.
The latest poll, published in February this year, shows that just over 42 percent of Icelanders are in favor of joining the EU, while the same percentage is against. The percentage of citizens who are in favor of the EU has decreased compared to the results of the poll from last year, when it was 44 percent.
Iceland's full membership in the EU has so far been hampered by the issue of fisheries (one of the chapters that has not been opened), which is a key sector of the economy. Iceland would have to accept the Common Fisheries Policy, open its waters to other member fleets and lose full control over quotas, with fears of overfishing.
The EU currently has 27 members, and if Iceland were to join the Union before Montenegro, it would be the 28th member, not Montenegro, which launched a campaign with a clear slogan: "28by28 - The next EU member".
The Montenegrin government also branded the national airline Air Montenegro's aircraft with that slogan last week.
The Ministry of European Affairs announced that the aim of the campaign is to convey the message to the international public that Montenegro will become a member of the European Union by 2028.
Montenegro has been negotiating with the EU since 2012 and has so far provisionally closed 13 out of a total of 33 chapters.
"Iceland is a close and valuable partner of the EU"
The European Commission told Vijesti that Iceland's application for EU membership has never been formally withdrawn, meaning it is still valid, and if the citizens of Iceland decide to continue negotiations, the EU is ready to respond in a timely manner.
"The EU and its member states will then decide how to continue the process, building on the work already done," the EC said in response to a question from Vijesti whether there was a possibility that the EU would politically "push" Iceland as an easier case, while Montenegro would be left for later.
Spokesperson EK Markus Lamert said today at a press briefing in Brussels that the Commission welcomes Iceland's intention to hold a referendum on relaunching EU accession negotiations.
"Iceland is a close and valuable partner of the EU," said Lamert.
Iceland applied for EU membership in July 2009, the European Commission gave a favourable opinion in February 2010, and the Council decided to open accession negotiations in June 2010. After the new Icelandic government took power in May 2013, Iceland put accession negotiations on hold, and by then had opened 27 negotiation chapters (out of a total of 35), of which 11 were provisionally closed, according to the European Commission website.
In March 2015, the Icelandic government requested that “Iceland not be considered a candidate country for EU membership”.
Iceland is, according to the EC, strongly integrated with the EU through membership in the European Economic Area (EEA), the Schengen Area and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). It is also a signatory to the Dublin Regulation on asylum policy and a partner in the EU's "Northern Dimension" policy, which aims to promote cooperation in Northern Europe.
Through the EEA, Iceland participates in the single market and contributes financially to social and economic cohesion in Europe.
"A significant part of EU legislation is currently applied in Iceland. Iceland also participates, although without voting rights, in a number of EU agencies and programmes, covering areas such as entrepreneurship, environment, education and research," the EC website states.
Iceland, it is added, has had a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the European Economic Community since 1972. Two-thirds of Iceland's foreign trade is with EU member states.
Ćerimagić: Negotiations with Iceland would be a formality
Ćerimagić believes that if Iceland truly reactivates negotiations on joining the European Union, it would primarily send a strong political signal, but it could also have practical consequences.
He recalls that Iceland is already part of the single market and a member of the Schengen area, with a stable democracy, a developed market economy and a strong rule of law.
"For many member states, especially those traditionally cautious about further enlargement, Iceland's potential membership would not represent an institutional or political and financial risk, but a gain. Therefore, a possible decision by Reykjavik to restart the process would be welcomed positively," said Ćerimagić.
This, he adds, does not mean that the negotiations would be a formality.
According to him, issues such as the common fisheries policy remain sensitive and would have to be carefully negotiated, but Iceland's starting position is significantly different from most candidates.
"And on the issue of fisheries, the neighbor that previously caused problems, the United Kingdom, is no longer part of the EU," he stated.
When asked how justified the fear is that Montenegro could be pushed into the background if Iceland enters the process and which scenario is more realistic - that the EU accepts only Iceland or that it decides on a "package" that would also include Montenegro, Ćerimagić replied that the two countries are in different phases and frameworks of their relations with the Union.
He recalls that Iceland is already deeply integrated into the four freedoms and a large part of the acquis, while Montenegro is going through a demanding reform process, especially in the area of the rule of law.
"In the capitals of the member states, when it comes to Podgorica, the challenge is seen primarily as fulfilling the commitments undertaken. This is a process that depends on domestic reforms, regardless of Iceland," he said.
Another question, which would possibly arise only at a later stage, is, as he says, whether it would be politically advantageous for the accession treaties of Iceland and Montenegro to be ratified at the same time.
"Such a 'package' could facilitate ratification, but it is too early to talk about a concrete scenario," believes Ćerimagić.
However, he says that at this point it is not certain whether Iceland will formally reactivate the negotiations, let alone when it could conclude them.
"Informal assessments in Brussels and individual member states suggest additional negotiations lasting 8 to 12 months, with the possibility of lasting longer, depending on political dynamics and outstanding issues," he said.
As he assessed, Iceland's starting position is favorable, but the final pace will depend on the political will on both sides and the willingness to close the remaining sensitive chapters in a mutually acceptable manner.
Iceland would have to undergo an audit due to the stalemate
Štiplija Todorović believes that after the renewal of the negotiation process, Iceland could progress relatively quickly, although due to more than a decade of stagnation, it would have to undergo a revision in areas where European legislation was changing.
He points out that Iceland is already very close to the standards in chapters 23 and 24, i.e. in the areas of rule of law, justice, security and fundamental rights, which were also key for Montenegro to obtain the IBAR (Interim Benchmark Assessment Report for Chapters 23 and 24), "so this part of the process could be administratively easier for it than for most other candidates."
He believes that the main obstacle remains fisheries and the EU's common fisheries policy, as it is a strategic sector for the Icelandic economy and a politically very sensitive issue, but it is precisely here that Brexit has changed the broader context - with the United Kingdom's exit from the EU, space has opened up for Iceland to further strengthen its position in the European fish market, which some of the Icelandic elites may see as a new calculation for a more pragmatic attitude towards membership.
Mackerel war
The UK and Iceland have had a tense relationship over fishing for decades, including the so-called “Cod Wars” from the 1950s to the 1970s. During the accession negotiations, new tensions emerged over the amount of mackerel caught by Icelandic fishermen – a dispute dubbed the “Mackerel War” – with the European Union even threatening trade sanctions, Politico recently reported.
For Iceland, the benefits of membership would be primarily security-related, and less economic-related, states Politiko, recalling that the country has the fifth-largest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the world.
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