The global order is facing deep fragmentation due to wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and such instability increases the vulnerability of small states like Montenegro, said analyst Siniša Vuković, emphasizing that the best shield against global turmoil and malignant influences is internal democratic resilience.
Vuković, who teaches at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, said that current conflicts indicate a weakening of the international system based on law, growing unpredictability in great power relations, and a shift towards a polycentric world dominated by raw power.
In an interview with the MINA agency, Vuković said that the current escalation in the Middle East is not an isolated event, but a consequence of long-standing structural problems, primarily the unresolved Palestinian issue.
"In recent years, the focus of the international community, especially Washington, has been on normalizing relations between Arab states and Israel through so-called transactional diplomacy, with the assumption that economic interests will override political and identity disputes," Vuković said.
He assessed that the current conflict shows the limits of such an approach, emphasizing that economic cooperation cannot replace deep-rooted conflicts that require a systemic, political and, above all, just solution.
"The current situation is an unequivocal and painful reminder that the Palestinian issue, as the core of the Middle East node, cannot be marginalized," Vuković pointed out.
According to him, the conflict is far from being ripe for resolution and is in a dangerous escalating spiral that is difficult to control.
"Key actors have been drawn into a situation in which any serious step towards de-escalation would carry a high political risk domestically, which is why concessions are interpreted as capitulation," Vuković said.
He assessed that tactical moves, including the elimination of moderate parts of the leadership in Iran and those who showed a certain pragmatism and willingness to negotiate, led to the strengthening of more radical structures that are not inclined to diplomacy.
"For the new, more radical generation of leaders, diplomacy is unattractive, they do not see its value in the short term, while the continuation of the conflict seems much more tempting to them because it allows them internal homogenization and consolidation of power," Vuković pointed out.
As he added, when you add to this the strategic vacillations and occasional unpredictability of Washington itself due to its internal polarization, the long-term consequences for the global order become serious.
"The Middle East is rapidly ceasing to be exclusively an American sphere of influence," said Vuković, pointing to the more assertive presence of regional powers, but also China and Russia, which are using the West's unpredictability to point out its double standards and further weaken its authority in the global south.
The war in Ukraine as a turning point
Speaking about the war in Ukraine, Vuković said that it represents a key flaw in the current global system and the return of territorial conquests as an instrument of state policy.
"We are witnessing an attempt to eliminate a sovereign state and a return to imperial domination characteristic of the period before 1945," said Vuković.
He assessed that this war of attrition shows the limitations of Western assessments and reveals cracks within the West, which revisionist forces are exploiting.
"Delays in decision-making and strategic uncertainty are creating a space in Europe that revisionist forces are carefully monitoring and exploiting, seeing a war of attrition as an ideal mechanism for the long-term weakening and fatigue of the Western alliance," Vuković said.
No real winners, the biggest loser is the international order
Asked who appears to be the biggest geopolitical loser at this moment, Vuković said that the most obvious loser is the system of international law designed after World War II, as well as societies located on geopolitical fault lines, such as Ukraine, whose sovereign rights are being trampled upon by brute force.
"There are no real winners at this point - everyone is a loser," Vuković said.
He said that the deconstruction of the existing global order creates a level of uncertainty and unpredictability that cannot be matched by any national crisis planning.
As he explained, no matter how powerful or revisionist a state is, it operates in a deeply interdependent world.
"When the basic rules of the game collapse, global supply chains, energy security, and internal socio-economic stability remain under constant risk and pressure to which no government is immune," said Vuković.
He believes that the rules-based order has not disappeared, but that it is transforming into a selective system in which great and middle powers treat international law and order as a buffet, applying the rules only when it suits them tactically.
Vuković believes that the weakening of the forces advocating the liberal order has been caused by the perception of growing hypocrisy in the eyes of the global South, where the belief has been created that the West applies the rules strictly selectively, but also by the fact that the US, as the main architect of the order, has too often sent signals in recent years that question its long-term security guarantees and willingness to bear the costs of maintaining global stability.
"When a hegemon that has guaranteed order begins to communicate in the language of brutal transactionalism, it inevitably creates cracks that autocratic regimes readily and skillfully exploit," said Vuković.
According to him, this erosion of norms does not lead in the long term to a new, stable multipolar system, but to polycentrism reminiscent of the concerts of powers from the 19th century, but without the balancing mechanisms of that time.
"The dominant currency is once again becoming raw power, which historically has always been a recipe for the proliferation of smaller, regional wars and an arms race," Vuković warned.
UN Security Council Paralysis Reflects Reality on the Ground
Speaking about the role of the United Nations (UN) in these circumstances, Vuković said that the international organization is facing political marginalization, but that its importance remains irreplaceable.
"The Security Council is essentially paralyzed, but this paralysis is not a systemic error of the institution itself, but rather a reflection of the reality on the ground," said Vuković.
He said that the international community cannot afford to weaken the UN because of its key role in humanitarian and global issues.
The EU is in the phase of geopolitical awakening
Vuković assessed that the European Union (EU) is also going through a phase of geopolitical awakening, following the collapse of previous assumptions about the economy as a guarantor of stability and peace.
"For decades, the European project relied on the illusion that economic interdependence alone guarantees peace," said Vuković, adding that the old European model functioned on the postulates of cheap Russian energy, cheap manufacturing in China and, most importantly, free American security.
As he pointed out, all three pillars have collapsed dramatically in the last few years.
"The future of the Union will depend solely on its ability to build true strategic autonomy, not to distance itself from the US, but to ensure its own survival in the event that Washington, due to internal polarization, decides to strategically withdraw," Vuković emphasized.
As he said, if it fails to develop coherent hard power, the EU risks turning from a global actor into just a strategic training ground for competition from others.
New alliances and risks for small states
Vuković said that we are in an era of transition from deep, institutionalized and value-based alliances to minilateral formats and ad-hoc partnerships, which are based on interests, stating that this poses a particular challenge for small states.
"For small states like Montenegro, such fluid, transactional polycentricity represents the most dangerous possible scenario. Small states can achieve security and prosperity only within an order in which the behavior of large actors is constrained and regulated by clear, predictable international norms," Vuković explained.
As he added, in a world where rules are written on the fly and where ad-hoc coalitions are formed around particular interests, small states are quickly becoming a currency for change.
"That is why deep, unbreakable institutional integration into stable systems like NATO and the EU is the only existential shield for smaller systems in this century," said Vuković.
Vuković assessed that the Western Balkans are not at the center of events, but that they are extremely sensitive to their consequences.
He warned of the risk of security crises due to internal tensions and reduced attention from the international community.
"Local political elites and ethno-national 'entrepreneurs' are closely watching Washington's hesitations or disunity in Brussels. When they sense that the West's focus is scattered to Ukraine or the Middle East, they see it as an open window to test red lines," Vuković warned.
He said that the region is not currently on the verge of a conventional war like the one of the 1990s, but that the danger of a serious and violent security crisis is quite real.
"Revisionist actors in the region, fueled by narratives about a new order spread by Moscow and similar actors, are maintaining a state of permanent, managed instability in order to extract concessions from the West in exchange for alleged peace," Vuković said.
He believes that the countries of the region should reject the idea of "sitting on two chairs" and make a clear decision.
"Strategic maneuvering is a luxury reserved exclusively for strong, middle powers with demographic and economic depth. For the countries of the Western Balkans, any flirtation with non-Western authoritarian regimes under the guise of diversifying partnerships is not an act of sovereignty, but a prelude to state capture and opening the door to malign influence," Vuković emphasized.
As he pointed out, the region must understand that the European security architecture is being redesigned and that in the new division there must not and will not be room for strategic ambiguity or neutrality.
Vuković said that for Montenegro, harmonization with the EU and NATO is the only way to protect sovereignty and credibility, adding that true sovereignty today is achieved at the table in Brussels, through alliances, and not in isolated neutrality in the Balkans.
"At a time when the global order is breaking down and major players are rethinking their strategies, the most important currency of a small state is its credibility and predictability in the eyes of its allies," said Vuković.
Internal stability is key
Vuković said that foreign policy and national security always begin and end at home, and that internal political polarization and weak institutions pose the greatest risk to the state.
"Membership in Euro-Atlantic integration is a necessary, but insufficient condition for stability. The best shield against global turmoil and malignant influences is internal democratic resilience, what we call democratic security," said Vuković.
According to him, a state whose judicial system is subject to pressure and blackmail, whose economy is shaped by clientelism and corruption, and whose society is exposed to toxic polarization, represents an ideal target for revisionist forces.
“Autocratic regimes do not need to send armies to destabilize such systems; it is enough for them to corrupt elites or sponsor disinformation campaigns,” Vuković said.
Therefore, as he emphasized, Montenegro's true belonging to the modern Western system of values is not measured by how many times a position is declaratively expressed or how many times decision-makers are photographed for the media while shaking hands with some officials from Brussels or Washington, but solely by the unequivocal strength of the rule of law, the impartiality of institutions and the resilience of its own democratic fabric.
"It is also the only lasting barrier against the historical shocks that lie ahead of us," Vuković concluded.
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