A map without clear road signs: A draft national foreign policy strategy without concrete guidelines

Montenegro is set to receive its first foreign policy strategy this year since the restoration of its independence in 2006. However, the draft document, which is supposed to explain in more detail the country's foreign policy plans for the next few years (2026-2029), does not currently offer precise guidelines that would help fulfill the strategic goals outlined therein, nor does it prescribe specific steps in the event of geopolitical turmoil, such as those currently occurring around the world.

"Vijesti" was informed last week by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MVP) that the draft strategy will be subject to public discussion until April 22. They assessed that in conditions of growing global instability, geopolitical, security and economic challenges, successful implementation of foreign policy requires a proactive, planned and coordinated approach, based on "the ability to timely recognize future trends, opportunities and challenges, as well as manage them in a way that strengthens the resilience of society and the international position of the state."

"Based on the above, the need for the adoption of a single planning document has been recognized, which will contribute to direction, continuity, inter-institutional coordination, and responsibility in the implementation of established foreign policy priorities for the next four-year period," they added.

The draft document lists the country's membership in the European Union (EU) as a priority goal, while others include "credible membership" in NATO and strengthening defense and security capacities, improving economic cooperation with foreign countries based on the rule of law and sustainable development, strengthening the state's reputation, and a modernized professional service.

However, the draft is littered with terms like “strengthening,” “improving,” and “commitment,” which are just substitutes for clear steps. As a result, the strategy's goals are more concerned with technical issues - such as participating in international missions or opening digital channels.

Vuković: There is a lot missing

MP for the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and former head of the parliamentary Committee on European Integration, Ivan Vukovic, told "Vijesti" that he expects that the quality of the document, based on suggestions from the professional public, will be significantly improved before adoption.

He stated that in its current form, the strategy acts more as a list of general political positions than as a document that should "frame" the activities of Montenegrin diplomacy until the end of the decade.

"It is evident that the strategy lacks a lot, including concrete measures to improve the unsatisfactory situation in the foreign affairs sector, a serious review of the numerous challenges that Montenegro faces internationally, etc.," added Vuković.

Asked whether a country can, in an unstable geopolitical moment - war in the Middle East, turmoil within the EU, the unpredictability of the United States under Donald Trump - plan more concrete steps, Vuković replied that "it can and must".

He pointed out that a country the size of Montenegro, with limited economic resources and modest potential for developing military forces, has no other way to influence political conditions on a broader scale than through foreign policy.

"Therefore, it is extremely important that the task of developing a foreign policy strategy be approached seriously, that is, that the total intellectual potential, professional knowledge and experience of numerous prominent individuals, primarily active and retired career diplomats, be put to use for its long-term development," the interlocutor emphasized.

Flaws and contradictions

Although the draft document refers to the principle of financial sustainability, it also sets extremely high financial targets. At the NATO summit in The Hague at the end of June last year, Montenegro committed to investing five percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) annually on defense by 2035 - two and a half times more than the current “quota” of two percent. It is planned to allocate 3,5 percent to direct military spending, and 1,5 percent to “broader security spending.”

The draft strategy envisages that these allocations will increase by 0,2 percent each year, reaching 2,8 percent of GDP in 2029. Given the country's current economic strength (according to Eurostat data from June 2025, Montenegrin GDP was 54 percent of the EU average), this could represent a fiscal pressure that could be unsustainable without jeopardizing other sectors, such as health or education.

Also, the fiscal strategy for the period 2024-2027 foresees the opening of eight new diplomatic and consular missions. However, the draft foreign policy strategy does not explain in detail how staffing for so many new missions will be provided without compromising the quality of the existing network, which, according to experts, is already deficient.

The draft document recognizes “growing global instability” and “hybrid threats” as key challenges, but the solutions in the section on operational objectives are mainly focused on increasing the number of cooperation activities and participation in missions. The document does not offer specific mechanisms for responding in the event of a sudden escalation of relations between great powers or disruptions in supply chains, which are stated in the introduction to the draft as a possible consequence of the current geopolitical situation.

In addition, the document states that digital diplomacy is “a necessary, not an additional instrument of modern action”, and that the establishment of digital diplomacy mechanisms contributes to the strategic positioning of the state. However, the operational goal in this domain is “the number of digital channels used in communication with the public”, with the indication that by 2029, these channels are expected to be 51 or more. However, the number of channels can hardly be considered as successful digital diplomacy as, for example, increasing the positive narrative about Montenegro in leading international media or combating disinformation that damages the state’s reputation.

The priority strategic goal is full EU membership, but the strategy in this regard relies heavily on meeting the final benchmarks and aligning with the acquis communautaire. While this is a necessity, it is clear that the plan already discussed by experts familiar with the European integration process, namely lobbying skeptical EU members outside the standard political dialogue, is missing.

EU accession depends not only on the performance of the state, but also on the political will of the member states, which the strategy, one could conclude, treats as a guaranteed item. Although it is clear that the mood for enlargement exists within the EU, experts have warned that large centers, such as Paris, Amsterdam or Brussels, could pose a problem when the accession treaty of Montenegro reaches the parliaments there.

As for the direction of economic diplomacy, a broad and bureaucratic definition of further plans was given.

"... Strengthening economic resilience, attracting and diversifying investments, assessing and selecting investments of importance for the protection of national interests and economic security, internationalizing the Montenegrin economy, improving trade relations and developing sustainable international partnerships, with the aim of achieving long-term prosperity and overall social progress," the document states.

In that section, for example, it is not stated in which markets Montenegro wants to market its products, nor are specific technological branches in which the state is looking for partners proposed.

MVP: Planning process based on Government methodology

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, headed by Ervin Ibrahimović (Bosniak Party), recalled that the department began the process of drafting a foreign policy strategy in 2025, and that "special emphasis" was placed on the planning process based on the methodology adopted by the Government.

"The process is guided, among other things, by the principle of transparency and involved various stakeholders, which enabled the consideration of different perspectives in the preparation of the draft document," they explained.

They announced that after the public debate is completed, the Ministry will consider all received comments and suggestions in order to prepare a strategy proposal, which will then be sent to the Government for consideration and adoption.