Comparisons of Montenegrin conditions with those in Hungary during the reign Viktor Orban They are more a part of daily political bickering than serious analysis because the current government in Podgorica does not have the key features of Orban's governance model, and the Europe Now Movement (PES) cannot be identified with the Hungarian Tisza, the party that triumphed in the elections there a few days ago.
Thus, the interlocutors of "Vijesti" comment on the reactions from Montenegro to the outcome of the elections in Hungary (held on Sunday), namely the controversy between PES officials and the European Union. Vasilija Čarapić i Miloš Đuričković about which Montenegrin government Hungary under Orban resembles more - the one before or after August 2020.
Analyst Stefan Djukic assesses that any comparison of any Montenegrin situation with Hungary is extremely far-fetched and does not correspond to the truth at all.
"As much as Orban's regime was denounced in the EU, it was still in the EU, and therefore there were some very different rules that operated, which were never present in Montenegro," he said.
Foreign policy commentator Bosko Jaksic says that the claims made by Đuričković - that the policy of the current ruling majority in Podgorica is "designed" according to Orban's model - seem misguided and can only be interpreted as a need for criticism of everything that exists.
"The authorities in Podgorica can be criticized for not being more agile in some necessary reforms, but this is more a result of undermining the integration processes and the activities of pro-Serb saboteurs who Donald Trump "(the US president) is being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize, rather than a lack of sincere desire," he said.
After 16 years in power, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban was defeated in the parliamentary elections: Tisa party Peter the Hungarian won 137 out of 199 seats, while Orban's Fidesz won 56 seats.
Who looks more like Orban?
On Monday, the day after the elections, a controversy ensued on social media between the PES and the European Union about who supported Orban, which government in Montenegro more closely resembles his - the current one or that of the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS).
Vasilije Čarapić, referring to the comments on these platforms, said that the reactions to Tisa's victory reveal political inconsistency in Montenegro: "Those who are against Orban are those who are the biggest supporters of his obvious parallel in Montenegro - (Mila) Đukanović, and for Orban, those who were against Đukanović, whose way of governing was similar to Orban's."
He also assessed that many are ignoring the parallel between Tisa's triumph and PES's victory in the 2023 elections, which he interprets as "the triumph of pro-European politics over a model that led to democratic regression."
"Some who until yesterday criticized the positioning of the PES within the EPP (European People's Party) family of parties have no objections to the victory of the Tisa party, which is part of the same family," Čarapić stated.
As he added, this only shows how unprincipled certain voices, mostly coming from "traditional parties" in Montenegro, are when it comes to their view of the domestic political scene, or rather "it shows their ignorance, bad intentions and outdatedness."
Miloš Đuričković responded, saying that Čarapić's parallels are arbitrary and out of context, and that the current government in Montenegro is showing "closeness to Orban's policies" with its moves. He cited contacts with Orban, praise for Trump and the AfD (Alternative for Germany) as examples, and assessed that PES cannot be identified with Tisa, but that former PES members, such as Miodrag Lakovića.
"You are the ones who went on a pre-election visit to Orban (Filip Ivanovic)", stated Đuričković, adding that "their" official (from the ruling parties) praised the AfD and Trump on social media, that the Prime Minister Milojko Spajic "sang songs to Trump", that the Speaker of the Parliament Andrija Mandic nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize...
He said that the PES cannot even use its membership in the EPP as a fig leaf, because Tisa's victory is, among other things, also a victory for the social democrats who supported her, "which is also evident from the statements of European leaders."
Čarapić countered by saying that the support of the European Social Democrats for Tisa is comparable to the support that the PES received, including the support of the ALDE group, because both options defeated, as he claims, the authoritarian model of government.
"This support exists because we defeated Đukanović in the elections, who is Orban on steroids, and who was written off by all major political groups in Europe in 2023, even though his DPS is a member of the family of European socialists," Čarapić said, adding that Đuričković's "bad attempts to construct impossible parallels" seem frivolous.
"Especially when you do it in defense of the political class that has robbed Montenegro worse than any occupier," he added.
Đuričković told TV E on Tuesday that it is undeniable that there was political cooperation between PES and Orban's Fidesz.
In July last year, Prime Minister Milojko Spajić signed agreements with Orban on cooperation in the field of infrastructure development and cooperation in the fields of telecommunications, IT and law enforcement.
Shaky parallels
Stefan Đukić claims that Montenegro did not resemble Orban's Hungary before, nor does it now. He says, however, that some parallels can be drawn between the DPS and Orban governments - in the sense that the structure was monolithic, that it was a government that tried, if nothing else, to capture the state at all levels, that is, to influence the judiciary and the prosecution, that there were accusations of corruption...
He recalls that, while Orban was at his strongest, the opposition held Budapest and some other cities, which was not the case in Montenegro during the DPS era.
"We have seen how, when the result is close (with the opposition) in large municipalities, it has happened that officials of certain parties suddenly decide to go solo and not respect the will of their voters," said Đukić, recalling cases Dear Đurović in Nikšić and Stevan Džaković in Budva, who, as members of the opposition parties at the time, supported the DPS to form a government in those municipalities.
Đukić points out that this did not happen in Hungary, despite all the undemocratic practices of Fidesz, and therefore equality with Montenegro during the DPS era cannot be emphasized.
And even less, as he adds, can one emphasize the equality between Fidesz and the current Montenegrin government, "which is completely non-monolithic, which is party-based, which in many aspects does not respect its own voters, etc.", but is not a unified structure that rules with a firm hand.
"Some will say that they would be like that too if they could, but that's a 'what if' story and doesn't befit political analysis...", said the interviewee.
Đukić reminds that the current ruling majority is made up of several ideologically different parties, "which pull in different directions and do not have one dominant leader who unites them", that is, that "there is no Orban above them who governs them all and who is a unifying factor".
"Spajić is not, nor can he be," the analyst emphasizes.
Tisa defeated Fidesz, PES is not DPS
Boško Jakšić believes that he does not see how the success of PES can be compared to the triumph of Peter Mađar's Tisa party, as claimed by PES MP Čarapić.
He reminds us that Tisa was defeated by Fidesz, and that PES came to power when DPS had already lost the national elections.
DPS lost power in August 2020 to several opposition parties that formed a government together, while PES came to power in 2023.
Jakšić also states that he does not find logic in Čarapić's statement that, looking at the reactions on social media, he concluded that those who are Đukanović's biggest supporters are against Orban, and those who were against Đukanović are for Orban.
"I wouldn't say that a parallel can be drawn between Đukanović and Orban, least of all between their voters. Some apparent similarities lead to superficial, but erroneous conclusions," Jakšić points out.
According to him, Orban is a great nationalist who promoted traditionalist and Christian values and actively influenced Hungarian minorities in Romania and Serbia, and to a lesser extent in Slovakia. He says that he fueled, rather than calmed, traditional intolerance towards Ukrainians.
Jakšić claims that Đukanović was not a nationalist, that he was oriented towards the EU and NATO and that he laid the foundations of Montenegro's European path, despite possible criticism of his way of governing. On the other hand, he claims that Orbán built a model of "illiberal democracy", concentrated power, subordinated institutions and the media, and became a symbol of anti-EU, authoritarian and populist politics, close to (Vladimir) Putin, Trump and the European far right.
"There can be debate about Đukanović's way of governing, but he was committed to democracy and the values of the EU and NATO, and he laid solid democratic foundations that today allow Montenegro to be first in line for membership (in the EU). During his rule, the majority of the media were oppositional...", the interlocutor underlines.
Đukić: PES remains ideologically unprofiled
Stefan Đukić recalls that PES had an interesting situation when it identified one of US President Trump's programs with its own.
He believes that these are attempts to extract some kind of foreign legitimacy for his party, which is essentially still unprofiled ideologically and politically.
"It is still an interest group, as is every party in the end, but here we still don't see what that interest actually is other than being in power and exercising power. Therefore, they are trying to equate the 'Europe Now' program with some kind of Trump program, to link the change of government with Tisa's party, etc.," he explains.
How was Orban overthrown?
Orban's political decline began in 2024, after a scandal involving the pardon of a man convicted of covering up child sexual abuse, which severely damaged Fidesz's moral narrative.
The affair, which was uncovered by the 444.hu portal, led to the resignations of Hungarian President Katalin Novak and Justice Minister Judit Varga, and further exposed the weaknesses of the system and the role of the top government.
After that, Judit Varga's ex-husband, Peter Magyar, appeared on the independent YouTube channel Partizán. He resigned from his state functions and began to speak openly about the inner workings of the regime.
In just a few days, the interview was viewed by millions of people. Within a few weeks, the Hungarian decided to enter politics...
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