Ćerimagić: The key is not in Brussels, but in Montenegro's readiness

Expectations for a quick conclusion of Montenegro's accession negotiations with the European Union (EU) are divided between the geopolitical needs of Brussels and the resistance of some member states, believes Adnan Ćerimagić, an analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI), and warns that the key factor remains, which is the country's own insufficient readiness for membership.

He announced on Facebook that two assessments stand out when it comes to the possibility of Montenegro concluding accession negotiations with the EU by December 2026.

The first, he says, is that the negotiations will be completed by December 2026 or by the summer of 2027, because the EU needs Montenegro's membership for geopolitical reasons, but also as a signal to other, more demanding candidates that the enlargement policy still has credibility.

"The second is that the negotiations will not be concluded because some member states oppose enlargement for domestic political reasons. Both positions are based in reality," states Ćerimagić.

He recalls that within the EU, especially in the European Commission and among the "friends of the Balkans", there is a clear view that endless accession negotiations no longer serve their purpose. For the EU and its ability to influence other candidates, the conclusion of at least one negotiation process is considered crucial for restoring the credibility of the enlargement policy, after 13 years without enlargement and one exit from the Union.

"At the same time, in capitals from Lisbon to Berlin, Paris and The Hague, there are still concerns about weak public support, pressure on decision-making processes and possible socio-economic consequences," said Ćerimagić.

What, he adds, both positions on the possibility of an early conclusion of negotiations ignore is Montenegro's actual readiness for membership.

He recalls that it states that Montenegro has opened all 33 chapters and closed 14, and that the European Commission has noted that more progress has been made in the last year than in the period from 2015 to 2022 combined.

"However, Montenegro is still far from being ready in the remaining 19 chapters. At the pace achieved since 2022, it would take at least another five years," said Ćerimagić.

He says that Montenegro's priority should therefore be to accelerate reforms.

According to him, this is proving difficult, because the dominant narrative suggests that the outcome does not depend on Montenegro, but on internal competition within the EU between those who want to conclude the negotiations regardless of performance and those who oppose them regardless of progress.

"My view is that the outlines of the concept of 'reverse' membership, as well as different interpretations of the goals of transition periods, safeguard mechanisms and post-accession monitoring, have created the impression that the EU is developing a framework for admitting unprepared members. Even if some have strived for this, it is now clear that this is not realistic. There is no consensus, nor will there be, to conclude negotiations with unprepared candidates," Ćerimagić points out.

For Montenegro, he adds, this means that progress requires an environment in which the dominant position recognizes that the conclusion of negotiations depends on the state's own readiness.

He highlighted two elements as crucial: a clear public confirmation by the EU that negotiations will not be closed without full preparation, and credible guarantees that progress will be rewarded regardless of internal processes in member states, for example through at least full access to the single market and its four freedoms.

"Otherwise, after the initial adrenaline rush generated by the official opening of all clusters with Ukraine and Moldova, the further closure of one - or, hopefully, more - chapters with Montenegro, and even a clear 'yes' from Iceland (in the referendum), the result after the summer will be disappointment, further erosion of the credibility of enlargement and weakening of the EU's influence," concluded Ćerimagić.