If a referendum on the independence of Montenegro had been held again in November last year, over three-quarters of the citizens who would have voted on the issue would have voted for an independent state.
This stems from data from a public opinion survey conducted by the "Spektrum Analitika" agency, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade, Miloš Bešić, which he gave to "Vijesti".
The research was conducted on a representative sample of 1.017 respondents in the period from November 17 to 30 last year. The standard error of measurement on 1.017 respondents is plus/minus 3,17 percent for phenomena with an incidence of 50 percent.
According to this data, if a referendum were held in November last year, 62.8 percent of citizens would vote for independence, 14,6 percent would be in favor of a joint state with Serbia, but with some kind of independence, 4,8 percent would vote for Montenegro to join Serbia, 0,9 percent would vote for Montenegro to unite with Serbia, but to annex some other territories inhabited by Serbs and Montenegrins, while 16,9 percent do not know how they would vote.
In the referendum held on May 21, 2006, 55,5 percent of citizens, or 230.661, voted for the restoration of independence, while 44,5 percent - 185.002 - voted for the survival of the union with Serbia. Turnout two decades ago was 86,49 percent.
If respondents who said they did not know how they would vote on the independence issue at that moment were counted as not having "turned out to the polls," then the result of the "referendum" from the survey would be that 75,6 percent of citizens voted for independence, and 24,4 percent for remaining in the common state. The turnout in this hypothetical scenario would be 83,1 percent.
When asked whether they think it is better that Montenegro achieved independence, or if it would have been better if it had remained in the union with Serbia, regardless of whether and how they voted in the 2006 referendum - 62,1 percent of citizens think it is better that Montenegro became independent, 19,8 percent think it would have been better if Podgorica had remained in the union with Serbia, while 18,1 percent of them have no opinion on the matter.
For assistant professor at the University of Donja Gorica Nikoleta Djukanovic The results of the research indicate that the issue of Montenegro's independence, almost two decades after the referendum, is largely politically "closed" at the level of the majority of citizens.
"The data that 62,1 percent of respondents believe it is better that Montenegro has restored its independence, and that 62,8 percent would vote for an independent and internationally recognized state, suggests a stable majority that accepts the existing state framework," she told Vijesti.
The 2006 referendum was preceded by many turbulent events of the 1990s, during which the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia began and when the idea of an independent Montenegro was supported by a small percentage of the population. However, this changed at the end of that decade, when the then unified Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) split and when the party, led by Milo Đukanović, turned her back on the then president of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) Slobodan Milosevic...
Voters of Albanian parties, DPS and BS, predominantly for independence
The research indicates that 40,9 percent of political abstainers (those who consciously or unconsciously decide not to participate in political elections) believe that it is better that Podgorica has restored its independence, that 13,1 percent of them think that it would be better if the union with Belgrade had survived, and almost half of that group (46 percent) has no opinion on the issue.
On the other hand, 100 percent of those who vote for Albanian parties think that independence was a better option, as do 88,5 percent of those who vote for the Bosniak Party (BS), and 11,5 percent have no opinion on the matter.
Half of those who vote for Democrats think it would be better if independence was restored, 31,4 percent of them think it would have been better if the union had not broken up, and 18,6 percent of them have no opinion.
As for citizens who vote for small civic parties, the vast majority (85 percent) believe that it is better for Montenegro to be independent, while the opposite situation is among those who vote for the New Serbian Democracy (NSD), Democratic People's Party (DNP), Socialist People's Party (SNP) or United Montenegro (UCG) - 68,4 percent of them believe that the union is a better option.
A convincing majority of those who prefer an independent state are also among the voters of DPS (95 percent) and the Prime Minister's Europe Now Movement (PES). Milojko Spajić (75,7 percent).
100 percent of voters of Albanian parties, 97,5 percent of DPS voters, 90,6 percent of BS supporters, 81,3 percent of those who vote for small civic parties, and 72,2 percent of PES voters would vote for an independent state.
Slightly more than half of those who vote Democratic (52,9 percent) would like an independent state again, 16,5 percent of party supporters Alekse Bečić would remain in the union with Serbia, while 5,9 percent of them would annex Podgorica to Belgrade.
On the other hand, according to the survey data, 52,6 percent of those who vote for NSD, DNP, SNP or United would vote for a joint state with Serbia, and 14,5 percent of them would vote to annex the state to Serbia.
Relations with Serbia - a polarizing topic
When asked how they assess current relations between Montenegro and Serbia, 22,6 percent of respondents said they think these relations are very good, 27,9 percent believe they are better than they were, but that they could be better, 13,7 percent said they think relations are bad, while 7,7 percent said they think Montenegro should not strive to have good relations with Belgrade at all.
When asked if Montenegro as a state would be forced to choose between membership in the European Union (EU) and friendship with Serbia, 35,9 percent of citizens chose EU membership, even at the cost of conflict with Serbia, 27,7 percent chose friendship with Serbia, even at the cost of not joining the EU, while 36,4 percent responded that they had no opinion on the matter.
As for party voters, 80,8 percent of those who vote for BS would choose EU membership, as would 79,7 percent of those who vote for DPS, 73,4 percent of those who vote for small civic parties, 54,5 percent of those who vote for Albanian parties... On the other hand, 71,5 percent of those who vote for NSD, DNP, SNP or United would choose friendly relations with Serbia, as would 42,4 percent of those who vote for Democrats.
This question left many undecided, with 61,6 percent of abstainers having no opinion on the matter, as well as 52,9 percent of those who vote for the Democrats and 47,8 percent of those who vote for the PES...
Đukanović: Identity issues are not over
Nikoleta Đukanović assesses that the fact that around a fifth of citizens still express the opposite opinion (from those who support independence) or prefer various forms of unity with Serbia is an indicator that identity and state issues have not been completely overcome. She points out that it is particularly interesting that political divisions are clearly reflected in the responses of voters from different parties, where the attitude towards independence is still strongly linked to party and ideological affiliation.
"This shows that the issue of statehood, although formally resolved, remains an important line of political mobilization and differentiation on the Montenegrin political scene," the interviewee adds.
When it comes to relations with Serbia, Đukanović states that the survey findings show a certain ambivalence in public opinion: a relatively small number of citizens believe that relations are very good (22,6 percent), while a significant portion believes that they can and should be better, or cannot clearly assess them. This, according to her, indicates the existence of space for improving bilateral relations, but also the perception that they are not at a satisfactory level.
Djukanovic emphasizes that additional complexity is shown by the issue of choosing between EU membership and close relations with Serbia, where citizens are almost evenly divided, with a large share of those without a clear position, adding that such a result suggests that there is a need for a policy that will simultaneously lead European integration and develop stable regional relations.
The interviewee stated that, overall, the research shows that independence as a state fact is consolidated, but that society remains politically and identity-wise heterogeneous, with pronounced differences in views on the strategic directions of the country's development.
"At the same time, the relatively high percentage of undecided or those without a clear position on several issues indicates a certain level of political uncertainty or fatigue with polarizing topics. I would like to point out that in order to interpret these findings, it is necessary to have insight into the research methodology, sample size and structure, data collection method and margin of error," said Đukanović.
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