Along with tangible reforms, the date is not in dispute: What do the German Bundestag think about Montenegro's entry into the EU by 2028?

All parties in the German parliament (Bundestag) support Montenegro's entry into the European Union (EU) or have a positive attitude towards Podgorica. However, although some of them believe that the goal set by the Government Milojko Spajić has set itself the ambitious but achievable goal of joining the "European club" by 2028. Almost everyone warns that the true implementation of reforms, as well as the full implementation of the basic market and democratic principles of the EU, is more important than the date of entry, with the message that when the country is ready for membership, Brussels will know how to recognize it.

This stems from conversations that "Vijesti" had with representatives of parliamentary parties there last week in the Bundestag.

While the newspaper's journalist was in Berlin, it was announced that the Committee of Permanent Representatives of the EU Member States had approved the formation of an ad hoc working group to draft the Treaty on the Accession of Montenegro to the EU, which was welcomed in the German capital as an important step forward. German Chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Mertz, was among the first to call for the early start of work on the accession agreement, when he said in early December last year that Montenegro could "move to the next step".

In the largest European Parliament (630 members), there was positive talk about Montenegro as a country that should be an example to other candidates for EU membership, and from conversations with German parliamentarians, one could get the impression that everyone sees Podgorica as the next EU member, but that they are more cautious in their forecasts of when that could happen, emphasizing that tangible reforms are the only true measure of readiness.

The ruling majority in Germany currently consists of the CDU/CSU coalition (208 MPs) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 120 representatives, while the opposition includes the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 150, the Alliance 90/Greens with 85 and the Left with 64 MPs, as well as three independent MPs.

Although the local MPs view Podgorica positively, the same cannot be said for the local population. According to a Eurobarometer survey from September last year, in Germany the level of support for Montenegro's accession to the EU was one of the lowest in Europe - 45 percent.

Montenegro gained candidate status in 2010, began negotiations in June 2012, and has so far provisionally closed 14 negotiation chapters (out of a total of 33), 11 of which in the last two and a half years.

A process based on merit, not dates

MP from the ruling CDU Peter Bayer, told "Vijesti" that the CDU/CSU coalition supports Montenegro's accession process, as well as paying tribute to Podgorica for the "long journey" it has traveled, acknowledging what has been achieved. However, Bayer noted that it is not all about the accession date, but that he understands why someone would set a goal to become a full member by a certain date.

“You need a goal, some incentive, some internal motivation, which I think is good. That’s why I would be the last person to criticize governments or anyone who says that. Last week, the President of Montenegro (Jakov Milatovic"(...) was here. I hosted him with my working group for the Western Balkans. We talked about that too and, honestly, I think he said it publicly - if it's 2028, then let it be 2028. Because everyone has to understand the long-term processes within the EU," he said.

Bajer reminded that the work on drafting the accession agreement for Montenegro will take some time, and that the European Commission will need a lot of time to translate it into a document, forward it to the member states, and then the ratification process in the 27 national parliaments will follow, "and that takes a long time."

"There is now additional pressure, which can actually bring more dynamics to the whole process. Perhaps the time pressure can also be a motivation to act faster, because important elections are coming up in some member states, for example in France next year. The closer we get to those elections, the more difficult it will be to implement this accession process through parliaments and governments," he underlined.

Analysts familiar with the situation on the Old Continent have repeatedly warned that it would be very important for Montenegro to close all chapters and sign an EU accession agreement before France possibly gets a new president. The current head of state of France, Emanuel Macron, is an advocate of Podgorica's entry into the European Union, while the eventual choice would be Jordan Bardele (leader of the far-right National Rally) significantly complicated this process.

Bajer noted that there is time pressure, but that it is not about dates, but about strengthening state institutions, which at the same time makes societies more resilient.

"But I also understand very well that Montenegro deserves to probably be the first next member," he underlined.

His SPD colleague agrees with Bayer, Jasmina HostertShe told "Vijesti" that the party she is a member of clearly advocates for EU enlargement, especially when it comes to the Western Balkans.

"This region is geographically located in the heart of Europe. As a European, it has always been logical for me that these countries should join the EU, many of which have been waiting for the process to continue for more than two decades," the interviewee said, adding that Europe "must finally fulfill that promise."

She welcomed the fact that momentum had noticeably improved in the last two years, recalling that the former Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) placed the Western Balkans agenda among the priorities of the previous government, and that the current Minister of Foreign Affairs Johan Vadeful (CDU) traveled to all six countries in the region at the beginning of his mandate.

Hostert said that any process must be based on merit, and that the basic conditions for accession, the rule of law, an independent judiciary, the fight against corruption and media freedom, are not subject to negotiations.

"We need a clear perspective, with clear rules and clear benchmarks, in order to strengthen the trust that governments, and above all citizens of the region, have in the EU. But the EU must also adapt to geopolitical changes and, above all, to a possible enlargement to 33 or 36 member states. Enlargement must be a dialogue, not a monologue. The most important thing is to think about the citizens of the Balkans - we must not allow ourselves to lose their trust and hope in the European Union," she points out.

The interviewee described the closing of 14 chapters as an "exceptional success", recalling that the rule of law and a clear separation of powers are a condition without which one cannot do anything (Latin: conditio sine qua non), and that she believes that entry by the end of the decade is an "ambitious but realistic goal".

Tajh: The EU has advantages, but also disadvantages

Za Tobias of Her, a member of parliament from the largest opposition party, the AfD, which political scientists characterize as far-right, Montenegro's entry into the EU is not just a question of reforms, but also of a broader ideological view of the way the community currently functions. Tajh emphasized that his relations with Podgorica are quite good, and that he has a very positive attitude towards Montenegro, as well as towards all other Balkan countries.

He told "Vijesti" that he spoke with President Milatović last week, and that he spoke with Prime Minister Spajić a few months ago, describing the conversation as "very positive."

"I respect their desire to move towards the EU, towards membership. Montenegro is the frontrunner, one of the most popular candidates for EU entry. From our perspective, however, it is a rather different issue, because we want the best for the citizens of Montenegro and for the country. But, as a German, we have a different view on everything related to the EU," the interviewee explains.

Tajh assessed that as an EU member, there are clear benefits and advantages in the beginning, but that after a while the public will also see the less positive things that the EU brings.

"There will be big changes for the population, for your culture, internal security, sovereignty, for making your own decisions and for voting against something. If citizens are clearly against something, you will have big problems with the EU," he added, citing Hungary as an example of that thesis.

He noted that Hungary was perhaps the only country that caused certain problems for the EU “just because it has its own opinion and its own view on some important issues.” There has recently been a change of government in that country, as the EU-skeptic party Viktor Orban, after 16 years of rule, was convincingly defeated in the elections.

The Copenhagen criteria are key

On the other hand, a member of the Alliance 90/Greens, Boris Mijatović, said that his party strongly supports the enlargement process, as well as that they firmly believe that the Balkans, or rather Southeast Europe, are an essential part and heart of Europe, and that they should become part of the EU, if they so wish.

"For that, it is necessary to complete certain steps because the EU is, first and foremost, a market. That is why you must have norms and standards so that your economy can compete in that market. That is very important, because we cannot have a situation in which the system does not function," he told "Vijesti".

Mijatović noted that the Copenhagen Criteria are very important, explaining that they concern economic aspects, such as standards and norms, but also the foundations - democracy, human rights, citizen participation and the rule of law, which, according to him, also supports the market.

"So, there is a lot of work to do, but I see Montenegro in a very good position, because it has done a lot in this regard and implemented certain reforms. There is still work to do, but 14 chapters have been closed. So, congratulations, it is almost halfway done, but you still have to continue strongly and with quality in order to have a chance to join the EU. And when you are ready, we are ready," he said.

The Left's message Gokaj Akbulut She stated that developments regarding Montenegro's accession to the EU are currently positive, and that her party supports the accession process.

"And, of course, that depends on whether the key criteria, the Copenhagen Criteria, will be implemented in Montenegro. So, it's about certain standards, such as the rule of law, freedom of the media and expression, fundamental rights, the fight against corruption, equality, environmental protection policy - that these areas are implemented appropriately through measures and reforms," ​​she told "Vijesti".

Protective mechanisms without support in Berlin

European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, said in mid-February that Montenegro's accession treaty with the EU should be the first with stronger safeguards. However, that idea is not very popular in the Bundestag.

Peter Bayer says that, in his view, adding additional obstacles, criteria and barriers to the accession process, even if they were only found in the accession agreement, is problematic.

"I wouldn't rule it out completely if it makes sense and if both sides, the receiving side and the acceding side, i.e. Montenegro and the EU, or the Commission, agree and understand that, for example, these specific issues would make sense, that it would actually be good for the country and give the process more credibility and acceptance. But if that's not the case, if it's just to show something to the public, as some kind of embellishment, "here, we made it harder for them", then it shouldn't be done," he assessed.

The CDU MP stressed that he is not a big supporter of such an approach, but that if someone presents convincing reasons and arguments for it, and if both sides agree, then it is fine, "but we should not exaggerate."

Jasmina Hostert stressed that key reforms must be completed and firmly established before accession, not after. She stated that various contractual instruments or steps to provide safeguard mechanisms are conceivable, but must be negotiated with the countries concerned.

"I think it is important that we simultaneously take into account both our own readiness for reform and our flexibility to respond to changing political circumstances. Internal EU reforms and enlargement must go hand in hand. Whether within the existing legal framework or by allowing new treaties to serve as an instrument of reform," she added, stating that safeguards against regression must apply equally to all members, not just the new ones.

Boris Mijatović said that he did not think that the accession agreement with Montenegro should contain safeguard mechanisms, but that he knew that such special agreements existed for a certain period of time. He assessed that he would always limit it in time, to, for example, five or seven years.

"However, I would not be in favor of any concession - neither for the EU to keep a candidate for membership under control through protective mechanisms, regardless of motivation, nor for candidate countries to have a concession when it comes to reforms. As I said, this process must not fail, because it is very important. But I think that the economy in Montenegro is strong, as are the institutional frameworks. If you can compete in the market, you are more than welcome," Mijatović concluded.

Gokaj Akbulut said that it is important that the decisions made in the context of the accession agreement are implemented, and that these various points are applied appropriately.

"Whether it will be 2028 or 2030, I think it is more important to move forward slowly and safely than to rush. I think a lot has already been done here and that Montenegro has time to implement it properly. Also, in relation to the Commission's report, there was information that the treaties should contain stronger safeguards against regression when it comes to the rule of law and fundamental values. And that is something that should be taken into account," she underlined.

Separate Montenegro and Iceland

The news that Iceland will hold a referendum in August on “unfreezing” its EU negotiations has been described by some analysts as an event that could help Montenegro on its European path. Before putting accession negotiations “on hold”, the Nordic country had opened 27 chapters, of which it had temporarily closed 11. Due to its high level of alignment with the EU, Reykjavik would close a large number of the remaining chapters very quickly, with the only problem being the issue of fisheries.

The idea that the accession agreements of Montenegro and Iceland would be presented together in the parliaments of the member states was assessed as a potentially great benefit for Podgorica, because it is believed that entering the EU "as a package" with Iceland would be significantly easier than if the issue of Montenegro's membership were to be presented individually throughout the European parliaments.

However, members of the Bundestag do not see this idea as something that would really help Montenegro.

Peter Bajer told the editorial staff that he opposes the idea of ​​creating clusters of accession countries.

"Iceland decided against it, but now it would be a perfect candidate for the EU. I would very much welcome Iceland becoming part of the club. It is likely, although I have not checked, that if they decided in a referendum that they wanted to start the accession process, they would meet all the conditions on the first day. I can only assume, but I think so," he says, noting that it could be a coincidence that Montenegro and Iceland are the next two EU members.

Bajer emphasizes that he would separate these processes, and that each country should be evaluated according to its merits, according to the so-called regatta principle.

"If the timing coincides, fine. But they shouldn't be linked for one reason or another to supposedly make something easier. I think it would also show disrespect towards Montenegro and Iceland if they were somehow linked together. For what reason? To say it's easier? I don't accept that argument. I hear it all the time, but I don't think it actually holds up," Bayer said.

Tobias Tajh said that he too is not in favor of Montenegro and Iceland joining the EU "as a package". He stated that these are two different countries, with major differences in terms of economy, borders and geopolitical independence.

"Iceland is very different from Montenegro. As far as I remember, President Milatović answered my question on that topic. He is not in favor of it, because Montenegro has already achieved certain goals. It has closed many chapters, it is the leader of the process and it is not best to be tied to such a partnership with Iceland, because Montenegro is a sovereign state and that should be respected," the AfD MP underlined.

The interlocutor said that Milatović also mentioned another country, which he did not want to name, but that that other country did not have as many obligations to fulfill as Montenegro.

"In my opinion, the decision should apply only to Montenegro, and not together with Iceland, because the two countries are too different for me. A country can become a member, but it should be a challenge for one nation individually, and not be associated with another country and what that other country needs to achieve," Tajh said.

Boris Mijatović believes that these are two different processes.

"If at some point they coincide, fine, but I wouldn't link them together. Montenegro's application is an individual application. It doesn't go together with the five other Balkan countries. So Montenegro has an individual candidacy and it should be in a position where, if the reforms are implemented, we don't say: okay, now we're waiting for Iceland or now we're waiting for someone else. In my opinion, in my world, if Montenegro is ready, we would be stupid not to accept you," he said.

Gokaj Akbulut, unlike his parliamentary colleagues, is not an opponent of the idea of ​​joining with Iceland.

"If this strengthens Montenegro's position, and not weakens it, which I do not assume, then Iceland can be taken as a positive example and a lot can be learned from each other within such processes. In that sense, I would support it, because situations can arise in which everyone wins: the EU, Iceland, and Montenegro," said Akbulut.

Teich: Talks between AfD and Montenegrin officials needed

When asked whether the AfD would vote for ratification of the Montenegro EU accession agreement in the German parliament when it comes, Tobias Teich responded that the party has "strong individualism" and that this must first be discussed within the party, but also with Montenegrin officials.

"That would be a very individual question... I think that, if I can speak on behalf of my entire party or parliamentary group in the Bundestag, we need to talk about that first. It's a different thing, a new thing, and we need to make sure that we determine what is the right decision for us and what is the right decision for you as Montenegro," he noted.

He emphasized that there is a very pronounced individualism in the party, and that there are different views on this, but that he thinks it can all be reduced to one point:

"We are absolutely pro-European, pro-state and pro-sovereign oriented. And that is precisely our problem with the EU. I recently spoke with the Swiss ambassador to Germany. Switzerland has bilateral agreements with the EU, about 140 or so. It is okay to conclude such agreements so that your country has benefits and advantages, but Switzerland remains a sovereign and neutral state and does not get the negative things that you get if you are a full member of the EU," he said, explaining that because of this he would not answer the question lightly or too quickly.

Teich reiterated that he would first have to talk to his party, and then to representatives from Montenegro "to make sure that our decision will be the right one."

"I think it can only work that way, through bilateral talks between the AfD in Germany and your representatives from Montenegro," he said.

Asked if he would be concerned that, if it joins the EU, Montenegro would then be the southeastern border of that community, Tajh replied that he would not be concerned about the mindset of the government in Montenegro.

"... Because, in my opinion, you are very well-oriented and are going in the right direction on many things. The only thing that would worry me is the things coming from the EU when it comes to borders, border closures, border control and securing them. I think there will be big questions there," he said.

Teich added that this issue is something he would like to discuss with Montenegrin representatives - how many people are there to secure the border, how many are there to secure the interior of the country, and whether there is a possibility that EU membership could open a new route for people who want to illegally come to the EU, to travel through Montenegro, and then further west, mainly to Austria and Germany.

"That would be one topic I want to discuss, but I think your country is on the right track and will cooperate in an excellent way," he said.

Bayer on the EU: A master plan is needed, no one really knows where this ship is going

Peter Bajer said that he had noticed a certain trend in recent years, that ways and means were being found to slow down the accession process. He noted that this did not necessarily have to do only with Montenegro, because the enlargement process in the existing EU was not popular.

"I personally wouldn't go so far as to say that no one really wants it, because we fully support it and understand why it makes perfect sense for the existing EU to welcome Montenegro, and other countries, into the club that now has 27 members," he said, adding that there is a slowing trend.

Bajer assessed that new ideas, methodologies, additional fences, associate membership, a phased accession process, lessons learned from a long development process are emerging... but that there is no master plan.

"I think the EU needs to provide more guidance. It's creating a lot of uncertainty, because right now nobody really knows where this ship is going. There are so many ideas - what is actually the right path to the EU?" the CDU MP asked, saying he doubted Birsel knew the answer at this point.

"That's why I would expect even more political leadership from my government, from Germany, and they are trying to do that, the Chancellor and the Foreign Minister, in this whole process in Brussels. Because right now it seems that no one in the EU has the appetite to take that leadership position when it comes to EU enlargement. That's not popular, people think that there is no political gain from it, it's complicated, we don't want that. The government in Berlin needs to take the lead in the EU enlargement movement," Bayer said.

Hostert: Laws on the ANB and the police led to a stalemate in chapters 23 and 24

Jasmina Hostert said that Montenegro is on track to realistically close all chapters this year, and that this is “what we are hearing from the European Commission and our government.” She stated that Montenegro's commitment and efforts towards full cooperation instill confidence that the remaining 19 chapters will be closed by the end of 2026.

She noted that there have been recent internal political developments regarding the planned reform of the intelligence service (National Security Agency) and the police, which, according to her, has led to a delay in the fulfillment of Chapters 23 and 24.

"I hope that these issues can be resolved through political dialogue and improvement of specific laws. It is up to the Montenegrin government to enable the closure of the chapter," she said.

Amendments to the law on the National Security Agency and Internal Affairs have led to new disputes between the government and the opposition in Montenegro. The opposition and the civil sector have characterized the proposed regulations as a path towards a "police state", while the government has said that the changes are necessary to fulfill the European agenda.

President Jakov Milatović returned the laws to parliament for reconsideration, but they were promptly re-adopted.