If, after next year's elections, the balance of power on the political scene is the same or similar to the results of the latest public opinion polls, the Europe Now Movement (PES) will be at the crossroads it was at in 2023: choosing between the two strongest blocs - the opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and the former Democratic Front (DF), with which it is in power. "Vijesti" interlocutors point out that cooperation with both alliances carries different dangers - with DPS, they claim, it is difficult to expect a reform of the system that the party has "captured", while with the DF the problem is primarily of an ideological nature.
The results of a survey by the Spektrum Analitika agency, published last week, show that PES is supported by 20,2 percent of citizens, DPS by 26,3 percent, while the parties of the former DF - New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and Democratic People's Party (DNP) - have 15,1 and 7,5 percent of support, respectively. Total - 22,6 percent.
If such figures were to be reflected (if not to the same extent, then to a similar extent) in the national elections next year - and given the goal set by the Government Milojko Spajić: for Montenegro to be a member of the European Union (EU) by 2028 - questions are rightly being asked: with whom could PES form a government, which scenario is "more dangerous", how realistic is one option and how much the other in the context of bringing negotiations with the EU to a close, what kind of arrangement does the international community prefer, but also whether the possibility of DPS and the former DF "bypassing" Spajić's party and forming a government themselves can be ruled out.
PES was faced with the same choice after the 2023 parliamentary elections, although the decision was much easier then - at that time he was still a member of PES. Jakov Milatovic had defeated the decades-long leader of the DPS in the presidential elections a few months earlier Milo Đukanović, so cooperation between PES and DPS was not to be expected.
Therefore, the former DF entered power through the "back door" - first by supporting Spajić's government in parliament, and then by reconstructing the executive branch in the summer of 2024, it also gained seats in it.
Dangers on both sides
Asked whether it is "more dangerous" for PES to continue with DF or to put DPS "back in the saddle", the Zagreb political scientist Aleksandar Music claims that it is much more dangerous to continue with the DF. According to him, the point is that the DPS in power was weak in terms of power and money, but that it had no real interest or ability for what determines, liberates or destroys a society in the long term - which are ideology, cultural, media and educational policy, lobbying, alliances...
"If he ever got involved in it, it seemed futile. Unlike DPS, DF is definitely interested in these things," he told "Vijesti".
Music assessed that the DPS today is a "pale shadow" of the former DPS, that they "have somewhat remained arrogant and bureaucratic", but that now in the opposition it looks "ridiculous and essentially powerless", while the DF, on the other hand, especially the NSD, knows how to use the reins of power down to every, even the smallest detail.
"They enjoy the privileges of 'in-depth' positions, but at the same time, through specific public policies, they are profoundly changing Montenegro for the worse, primarily changing the minds of Montenegrin Serbs, and indirectly pulling increasingly large parts of citizens with dual identities into their orbit, especially through the element of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), fear and party recruitment, which means that they are distancing them from Montenegro, its independence and dignity," the source said, adding that the head of parliament and the NSD Andrija Mandic He is not afraid of cultural or educational politics, diplomacy, or advice from those smarter than himself, on the contrary.
Docent at the University of Donja Gorica, Nikoleta Djukanovic, told the editorial staff that she would not say that the choice between continuing cooperation with the DF and returning the DPS to power is a simple choice between "lesser" and "greater" danger, but that both options carry serious political risks, just of different natures.
"When it comes to the future of the civil character of the state, its independence, Euro-Atlantic course and international credibility, cooperation with the DF carries greater damage and greater risk. On the other hand, when we talk about internal consolidation, democratization of institutions, depoliticization of the system and healing society from partitocracy, the DPS and the DF show similar capacities, or rather similar limitations," she told "Vijesti".
Đukanović points out that PES has already shown that it will form a government with almost anyone, if that is the condition for retaining or regaining power, and that the coalition with DF has clearly demonstrated this. He notes that PES, instead of acting as a corrective factor and offering a new model of political behavior, has continued to play by the rules of the established partitocracy.
"By doing so, they missed a great opportunity to change both society and the way in which parties understand power, not as a responsibility, but as a prey," the interviewee emphasized.
DPS did not reform, Mandić "sold the story" to the West
When asked how realistic it is for PES and DPS to form a government that will complete negotiations with the EU, and what the arguments are for and against it, Music replied that the argument for it would be a possible signal from abroad. However, according to him, if it hasn't arrived by now, it probably won't.
"Hope in politics is only for the naive," the interlocutor stated, adding that there are many arguments against it - "interests and money are on the side of existing relations (in government), in terms of personnel, most PES members are either literally former DF members, or they admire Mandić, or they fear him, the SPC is strongly pushing both in that direction with its influence, and the quarrels within the partners in government are actually minor."
Music stated that DPS has not carried out a radical purge, nor has it truly renewed its personnel, and that as such it serves both PES and DF as an "eternal free scarecrow, to its own detriment."
Asked how realistic it is for the PES to continue the European integration process with the DF, as well as what the arguments are for and "against" this cooperation, Music replied that Mandic has found a way to "sell" himself abroad as an element of stability in Montenegro, saying that he represents a third of the population, that he is for peace and reconciliation, that he has the Serbian Orthodox Church on his side, and that the majority of the population has trust in the Serbian Orthodox Church...
"I am one of the few who said from the beginning that we should be careful about shouting that Mandić is incompatible with Europe. Not because he has European beliefs, whatever they may be, but because Europe is, at the end of the day, a geopolitical machine... And Europeans (as well as the British) know very well that Mandić's pro-Russian stance is a pose, an aesthetic, and not a true belief, that the master is in Belgrade, not Moscow, and that European states cooperate quite nicely with this master in Belgrade under layers of regime propaganda and noise," he said, assessing that all of this has been quietly making Mandić "acceptable" to Europe in recent years, to the detriment of Montenegro.
DON'T MISS IT
Music said that the "Eurobots" from the so-called sovereignist scene thought they were subscribed to American and European mercy and that Mandić in power was only a short-lived anomaly that would die out on its own, followed by a "true European government."
"Of course, as with everything in the last almost six years - by placing their hope in foreigners, they were deceived and lost the most precious thing - time for quality work within Montenegro - time that they can no longer get back," said the interlocutor.
DF skillfully uses the levers of power
Đukanović assessed that cooperation between PES and DPS would not automatically bring a qualitatively better situation, noting that the argument for such cooperation would be that DPS formally inherits a pro-European and pro-Western orientation, and that such a government might be more acceptable to some international partners.
"However, the arguments against are much more serious: DPS is the very party that has spent decades building a system of captive institutions, political clientelism and resource control. It is difficult to expect that those who created such a system will be the ones to dismantle it," she stated.
On the other hand, Đukanović says that it is very realistic for PES to continue EU integration with DF, especially if DF continues to grow stronger. According to her, DF has a stable electorate, and now access to institutions and resources, which allows it to further consolidate through political recruitment and other mechanisms of government.
She said that the paradox is that the European integration process in Montenegro today is largely led or supported by parties that do not essentially share the values that EU membership implies - the rule of law, the civic character of the state, institutional autonomy and a clear foreign policy orientation.
Looking at the results of public opinion polls over the last three years, the former DF has significantly increased its rating during that period.
Ahead of the national elections in June 2023, they had 13,2 percent support, and won 14,7 percent of the vote in those elections. The growth continued in the Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CEDEM) survey from March 2024, when they had 15,5 percent support, and in September 2025, they had a record 23,5 percent. In January, they were at 20,1 percent, while, according to the latest data from "Spektrum Analitika", they have 22,6 percent support - with the NSD (15,1 percent) and DNP (7,5 percent) now being measured separately, after the party Milan Knežević left the state government at the end of January, and raised the issue of the survival of the alliance with the NSD.
According to surveys, Prime Minister Spajić's party recorded a record rating of 29,1 percent in May 2023, a month before the parliamentary elections held in June of that year, when 25,5 percent of those who went to the polls voted for it. According to a CEDEM survey from March 2024, PES enjoyed the support of 26,3 percent of voters, while the next survey by that non-governmental organization, in September 2025, showed a sharp decline - to 20,3 percent. A survey by "Spektrum Analitika" from January confirmed that PES was in decline - then support was registered at 19,1 percent, but the agency's findings published last week showed a slight recovery - support at 20,2 percent.
A comparison of the surveys shows that in the last three years, the DPS has had a stable rating. It (the rating) has always been within a few percentage points - in May 2023, they had 24,1 percent, and in the elections, in a coalition with the Social Democrats, the Liberal Party and the Democratic Union of Albanians, they took 23,2 percent. In March 2024, they were at 26, in September 2025, they had 0,2 percent less, in January they were listed at 25,2 percent, and the latest poll shows that they now enjoy 26,3 percent support.
What do foreigners want?
After Mandić was elected as the head of parliament at the end of October 2023, the Quinte countries (USA, Great Britain, France, Germany and Italy) and the EU Delegation did not congratulate him on his election to office, they opposed the former DF's entry into power, and the United States Embassy sent a message that this alliance, which was against the country's membership in NATO and the recognition of Kosovo's independence, was not a partner for them.
When asked whether the international community wants stability in order to complete the negotiations (the same government as now), or whether it thinks that strengthening the DF is dangerous and that it would be good to form a coalition with the DPS, the newspaper's interlocutors have conflicting answers.
Aleksandar Music claims that the international community is currently quite satisfied with this government in Montenegro, and that he does not expect any serious disruption from that side.
"Those who think that even PES's stumble on the European path would be enough to bring down the government are mistaken, and I see that this is now a new point of false hope. This government can change the prime minister, it can rearrange itself within the ruling majority, it can go through a crisis - but in order to fall - it will need more quality people, work and effort, perhaps even new forces within Montenegro," he said.
On the other hand, Nikoleta Đukanović said that she would not view the international community as a single actor with a single position, assessing that the EU today is not what it used to be, nor is it always what the public in Montenegro imagines it to be.
"There are also strong right-wing, conservative and radical currents within the EU itself, which is why the DF is not an equally unacceptable interlocutor for all international actors. Some partners will probably give priority to stability and the continuation of negotiations, even with the current ruling configuration. Others will see the strengthening of the DF as a long-term risk to Montenegro's European path. Therefore, we should not expect a clear and unified message from the 'international community'," she said.
It is (un)realistic that DPS and DF cooperate
When asked whether the possibility of a coalition between DPS and DF should be ruled out or whether that unthinkable combination is still conceivable, Nikoleta Đukanović replied that she would not completely rule out the possibility of such cooperation.
"In Montenegro, unfortunately, almost anything is possible when it comes to power. The example of Budva best shows that even the most politically unthinkable combinations can be made conceivable when there is an interest in forming a government. Ideological differences then often prove to be less important than control of institutions, resources and political influence," she assessed.
On the other hand, Aleksandar Music said that this combination is unthinkable, but not because some actors would not go in that direction, but because the DF does not need the DPS.
He stated that the DF has become so strong and has such levers of power on its side that it only needs the DPS as a "scarecrow", a supposed symbol of evil to which it returns when it has nothing to offer, as well as a solid mobilizer of its votes.
"To accept DPS into power on the DF side would be political suicide, and no one there is that naive. DPS, on the other hand, is already clear that it will lose the next parliamentary elections. It simply does not have the math to win, and the way they are working - they cannot create it," he said.
Music said that on August 30, 2020 (when the three-decade-long DPS government was replaced in the elections), the government found its recipe for success - the slogan "no to anything but DPS" as a rallying cry and connective tissue, day and night mentioning the mafia and mafia-related things, and presenting themselves as alleged fighters against the mafia, schoolboy swearing in Europe and Europeanism, vote buying, control of the Public Service Broadcasting Service, adding that this recipe serves it perfectly to this day, despite "all the stumbles and all the embarrassment."
"The ruling parties, united, are regularly around or over 50 percent, and that is a completely comfortable position for further action. If some fall a little, others grow a little, a third appears and fixes the story just enough, and so on. On the other hand, the opposition does not have its own recipe. And it has not had one for almost six years," he underlined.
DPS leader Danijel Živković said in an interview with "Vijesti" at the end of March that they "deeply believe that the time has come to overcome the Montenegrin-Serbian gap", but that they will not cooperate with the DF while it is in the ideological positions it currently holds.
DON'T MISS IT
What if Mandić asks for the prime minister's seat?
Asked what if the DF becomes so strong that Andrija Mandić seeks the prime minister's position for himself or someone close to him, Nikoleta Đukanović said that, if that happens, it would not only be a serious test for the PES, but also for international partners.
"Then it would be clear whether the priority is truly the European agenda or mere stability of government. Because stability in itself is not a value if it means normalizing policies that undermine the civic and European character of the state," she stated.
Aleksandar Music stated that Mandic will definitely "step forward" next year, and whether it will be personally or through another person ("probably a woman") remains to be seen.
"He knows he won't have another chance to make that move. That step forward will be accompanied by his activation of his sleepers in PES, and there are quite a few of them," said Music.
Musić: The government has embarrassed itself a thousand times, but no one is paying for it
Aleksandar Music told "Vijesti" that from August 30, 2020 until today, the opposition struggle should have been a struggle for the citizens of Montenegro, an internal political struggle, a struggle for young people, for the upcoming generations, for those who are disappointed and passivized...
"It should have been a fight to solve internal pressing problems, with capable people who can credibly offer a healthier Montenegro. Instead, we have seen almost six years of oppositional calculation from within and flattery from without, servicing old relationships and failed stories, and it ended, after all, one can freely say - in a disaster. The government has embarrassed itself a thousand times, and there is no one in Montenegro to hold it accountable," he said.
DON'T MISS IT
See more:
Download the app and follow the news
FOLLOW US ON
