CDT Analysis: Montenegro has not consolidated its civic model to be resistant to political and identity regressions

Montenegro is more open and inclusive today than it was in 2006, but it has not yet consolidated its civic model sufficiently to be resistant to political and identity regressions, according to an analysis by the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT).

An analysis written for CDT by the director of the Damar Institute, Vuk Čađenović, states that the civic state and open society are found in many declarations and party programs, and that political elites constantly mention them in public appearances.

"But 20 years after the restoration of independence, it is legitimate to ask how open and civic a state Montenegro actually is," reads the analysis prepared as part of the dialogue that CDT is launching with the Damar Institute to mark 20 years of independence.

In his analysis, Čađenović recalled that Montenegro is constitutionally designated as a civil state, which means that the political community is based on the citizen as the bearer of sovereignty, and not on a privileged identity collective.

"However, between the constitutional formula and social reality there is a space in which the real character of an order is decided. This space consists of institutions, political parties, the culture of public debate and the everyday ability of society to accept difference without turning difference into permanent conflict," the analysis states.

The document emphasizes that the position of women represents one of the clearest indicators that the Montenegrin political space is at least partially opening up.

It is stated that the Parliament of Montenegro has seen an increase in the participation of women, that quotas and institutional mechanisms have opened doors that party selection and political culture themselves were not ready to open, and that the resistance of patriarchal patterns still remains present.

A similar logic, as highlighted in the analysis, applies to the position of minority communities.

"In the period 2006–2023, the representation of minority parties in the Parliament of Montenegro varies, but 2023 represents the maximum, with a total of ten mandates from minority lists and parties - six from the Bosniak Party, three from Albanian parties and one from a Croat party," the analysis states.

This, as stated, shows that in a plural society, political stability is more sustainable when diversity is institutionally included, rather than when politics is built around the assumption of a single dominant community.

"A civic state, in this sense, is not a negation of minority identities, but a framework in which they are politically recognized without questioning the equality of citizens," the analysis adds.

However, it is pointed out that affirmative representation is not the same as depolarization.

"Available analyses show that minority parties have long acted as stabilizers of the sovereignist and pro-European pole, but also that part of the electoral area has gradually been ethnically consolidated," the analysis states.

The document states that "parties have often translated the correct idea of ​​affirmative representation into the permanent logic of ethnically addressing voters."

"Thus, the referendum formula of a civic and multiethnic state is gradually moving towards a pattern in which parties do not amortize differences, but rather maintain them as a stable infrastructure of political mobilization," the document adds.

The openness of a society, as stated, is not measured only by who is formally present in institutions, but also by how society perceives different groups.

"On a scale from 0 to 1, where higher values ​​mean greater negative social distance, the distance towards Albanians falls from 0,471 in 2006 to 0,383 in 2016 and 0,292 this year," Čađenović's analysis states.

As he said, the distance towards Roma remained very high in 2006 and 2016 (0,605), but this year it dropped to 0,362.

Čađenović said that, in contrast, the distance towards LGBT people remains almost unchanged high - 0,57 in 2006, 0,57 in 2016 and 0,561 this year.

"Montenegro has become more open and inclusive than it was in 2006, but it has not yet consolidated its civic model sufficiently to make it resistant to political and identity regressions," concludes the analysis written by Čađenović for the CDT.