"There is no clearer signal that the EU sees Montenegro as its next member"

The war in Ukraine has put enlargement back in the European Union's (EU) focus. Montenegro is next, but Brussels is demanding reforms and lifting the veto.

The war in Ukraine has put enlargement back on the EU agenda. While Brussels is signaling that Montenegro could become the next member, deep divisions remain within the Union. Some countries insist that the EU must first reform itself. Numerous proposals are on the table.

"Enlargement is a priority for the European Union and if our candidates deliver what is required of them, then we must also deliver on our promise," said Enlargement Commissioner Marta Cos ahead of a meeting of EU foreign ministers.

As proof that the EU is moving from words to deeds, Kos stated that for the first time in 17 years, the Union has formed a working group to draft an accession treaty - this time with Montenegro.

"There is no clearer signal that the EU sees Montenegro as its next member," Strahinja Subotić, a researcher at the Center for European Policy (CEP) in Belgrade, told DW. "Using the example of Montenegro, the Union has shown that enlargement is not just rhetoric."

Reforms first, then enlargement?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought enlargement back to the centre of European politics. For many member states, the issue of European integration has become central to discussions about the Union's security and international standing.

"The geopolitical need for enlargement is recognized among all member states," Steven Blokmans, a researcher at the influential Brussels-based think tank the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), told DW.

But, he adds, the debates on enlargement have become inseparable from discussions on reforming the European Union itself. The issue continues to divide member states. Blokmans points out that some countries have traditionally been more skeptical of enlargement, especially France, which has long insisted that the EU must first reform its own governance and decision-making system before accepting new members.

On the other hand, countries on the EU's eastern flank are advocating for accelerated membership for Ukraine and Moldova, while supporters of enlargement to the Western Balkans believe that the region has been "waiting in the lobby of the European Union" for too long.

New models on the table

As the EU tries to balance geopolitical urgency with internal skepticism, there is growing debate in Brussels about whether the traditional enlargement model is still viable. Commissioner Kos acknowledged that the EU is still using a methodology developed four decades ago and that proposals for reform are on the table.

"What we are now discussing with member states is whether the principles of gradual integration, which we currently mainly use in the sphere of the common market, can be extended to other areas, especially security," Kos said.

The idea of ​​"phased accession" or "gradual integration" implies that candidate countries gradually gain access to EU policies, funds and institutions before full membership.

"The idea arose out of frustration over the lack of progress in the enlargement process for the Western Balkan countries," said Steven Blokmans, one of the authors of the proposal.

"These proposals are based on the idea that countries receive concrete benefits earlier in the process, in exchange for reforms," ​​he said.

These ideas have already become mainstream, although they are sometimes overshadowed by much more ambitious ideas, Blokmans recalls. Among them is the proposal for a so-called "reverse enlargement", supported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and parts of the European Commission, under which countries like Ukraine would first formally join the EU and only then complete reforms. However, the member states quickly rejected the idea.

The veto is no longer taboo

Among the more controversial proposals currently circulating in Brussels is the idea of ​​temporarily limiting the veto rights of new members upon accession.

The proposal developed by the Belgrade-based Center for European Policies immediately met with criticism that such a rule would create second-tier members.

One of the authors of this proposal, Strahinja Subotić, tells DW that the aim of this proposal is to reassure skeptical member states who fear that enlargement could paralyze the EU.

"We feared that enlargement fatigue could lead to a situation in which the EU would no longer be ready to accept more than one or two candidates," Subotić told DW. "The worst-case scenario would be that a country implements all the reforms and still has the EU door closed to it."

He believes that the restrictions could be limited in time and content.

"This could only apply to one or two areas, and not necessarily in the same way or for the same duration for each candidate country," said Subotić.

Blokmans believes that legally such a mechanism could be built into the accession treaties. Politically, however, the issue remains very sensitive because it concerns the sovereignty and equal rights of member states, he adds.

However, several Western Balkan countries have already signaled their willingness to adopt such a model. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia have said they would accept temporary restrictions on veto rights if it would accelerate membership.

Montenegro as a test case

Montenegro, however, does not want delays or transitional arrangements. Analysts believe that it will likely be the last country to join the EU under current rules, before more serious institutional reforms of the Union.

At the same time, both Steven Blokmans and Strahinja Subotić believe that Montenegro's accession could serve as a testing ground for new enlargement mechanisms being discussed in Brussels today.

Subotić expects that the EU will introduce stronger post-accession monitoring mechanisms through the accession treaty with Montenegro than in previous rounds of enlargement, especially when it comes to the rule of law and democratic regression.

"It can be expected that Montenegro will become a guinea pig for testing the limits of transitional arrangements and safeguard clauses," Blokmans also believes.

He adds that the accession treaty currently being prepared could become a template for future enlargements. Because while Brussels is writing the rules for Montenegro's entry, it is actually preparing for a much bigger challenge.

"The main debate today is really about Ukraine's accession," Blokmans concludes. "It's about a country at war and a large state that would have a huge impact on the way the EU is run, the distribution of European money, but also on the position of all the other candidate countries."