Montenegro is celebrating two decades of independence with a reputation as the best student in the Western Balkans. In recent years, Podgorica has managed to unblock negotiations with the European Union, accelerate reforms and position itself as a favorite in the enlargement process at a time when the EU is once again showing interest in accepting new members.
"It's easy to be a star in a class of bad students," Daliborka Uljarević from the Podgorica Center for Civic Education told DW.
She warns that behind the image of regional success are hidden problems that have been haunting Montenegro since the restoration of independence. The current momentum in European integration, she says, is primarily a consequence of changes in geopolitical relations that Podgorica has managed to recognize and exploit, unlike the rest of the region, which has stagnated or even regressed on its European path in recent years.
"Our absolute interest is to become a member of the European Union as soon as possible, but it is equally important to us that this process is carried out with quality, and not that we enter as a defective state," says Uljarević.
The same obstacles
Reforms in Montenegro accelerated after the change of government in 2020, when the Democratic Party of Socialists lost elections for the first time since the restoration of independence.
For Aleksandar Popov from the Novi Sad Center for Regionalism, the very fact that the government was replaced peacefully and democratically shows that Montenegro has a greater democratic capacity than most countries in the region.
For Daliborka Uljarević, however, it is disappointing that the change of government has not been accompanied by a change in political practices: "Corruption is still omnipresent today. Some would say it is even more expensive than before, because there are many more actors in government who are trying to satisfy their party and particular interests."
In addition to corruption, the political scene continues to be burdened by identity divisions between pro-Serbian and pro-sovereignty forces.
"Citizens have ended many of these battles both with themselves and among themselves, but unfortunately we have under-capacitated political structures that insist on these topics in order to cover up their own lack of reform capabilities," Uljarević said.
Officially, these two political currents have reached a consensus on the country's European path. Unofficially, Popov warns, that balance remains fragile and susceptible to influence from Belgrade.
"Pro-Serbian forces in the form of Mandić and Knežević can always obstruct the European path at the behest of Belgrade, and that is happening now. Knežević is already doing it, and Mandić is not to that extent," says Popov, adding that part of the pro-Serbian bloc is still showing more pragmatism than before.
The Shadow of Belgrade
Relations with Belgrade have thus remained one of the most sensitive issues for Podgorica, as best evidenced by the reaction of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić to the invitation to participate in the celebration of the anniversary of independence.
He first said that he would be "ashamed" and that by leaving he would "spit in the face of himself and his people", and then addressed the citizens of Montenegro with an author's text.
"You didn't bother us, we saw you as sisters and brothers and wanted to live in the same country with you. I admit, we are guilty, and I apologize for loving you more than you loved us," Vučić wrote.
Uljarević and Popov believe that official Belgrade has never fully accepted Montenegrin independence, but, as Uljarević says, "treats Montenegro as a temporarily lost territory."
Popov also reminds us that with the SNS, the radical idea of unifying the Serbian world has been revived.
"Protests and rallies that eventually led to the fall of Milo Đukanović's regime were conducted from Belgrade, and everyone expected that Montenegro and Serbia would once again become two eyes in one head, but that did not happen," says Popov.
However, Daliborka Uljarević is not so convinced that Montenegrin leaders will be resistant to pressure from Serbia. She cites the lack of official reaction to Vučić's words as an example.
"I think this is because some of them feel loyalty towards him, and some are afraid of entering into any kind of confrontation. Many actors in this government are aware that they are in these positions in large part because Belgrade helped them," Uljarević said.
Tripping games
In the meantime, official Belgrade will do everything to trip Montenegro up on its European path, Popov believes, reminding that there have already been such attempts.
"Vučić went to Brussels with the idea that all the countries in the package would be admitted to the EU. He actually knew that this was not possible, but he tried to sabotage Montenegro in this way. And the second attempt was a letter with Edi Rama in which they recommended admission without the right of veto," Popov recalls.
He believes that Belgrade is politically unsatisfied with Montenegro's entry into the European Union, because it would show that the problem is not in the closed doors of Brussels, but in the policies of the authorities in Serbia.
"That would break Vučić's key argument 'they don't want us'. It's not true, but we are constantly faking that path and maintaining the anti-European narrative. Secondly, Montenegro will slip away as a possible prey," adds Popov.
"When it joins the EU, Montenegro is then both security-wise and legally out of Belgrade's reach. It is leaving the zone of possible blackmail and pressure, and this will cause even greater nervousness in Belgrade, especially since Serbia under this government never has a chance of joining the European Union," Popov concludes.
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