Twenty years after regaining its independence, for a small country like Montenegro, the question of sovereignty lies not in its ability to resist external pressures and make independent decisions, but in its ability to balance the desires of great powers with its own interests. However, today, due to its economic weakness and underdeveloped institutions, Montenegro lacks another type of independence, equally important - one in which citizens do not depend on the government, because the system works no matter who is in power.
With these words, the interlocutors of "Vijesti" answer questions on the occasion of the great state jubilee, the 20th anniversary of the referendum on independence: how sovereign is Montenegro today, has it shown that it can lead responsible politics, how has it changed over the past two decades, what could have been done but was not, what were the greatest victories and which defeats...
On May 21, 2006, the citizens of Montenegro decided on the future of the country with a “pen” – a rarity in its long and turbulent history, in which many important decisions were made “with a gun”. In 2006, after almost nine decades, the country found itself on the world map again, and it was conceived as it had never been before: as a democratic, civil, social justice, ecological state based on the rule of law - modeled after the most modern and developed societies in the West. Joining the European Union (EU), along with NATO membership, was proclaimed as an absolute foreign policy goal.
The country is celebrating its great anniversary in circumstances that seem idyllic to many from the outside - NATO membership has been achieved, negotiations with the EU are proceeding at an accelerated pace, and Podgorica is seen as the next member of the Brussels club, perhaps in two years, as the government hopes.
On the other hand, global turmoil has shaken the EU, NATO and liberal democracy to its foundations. However, Montenegro is vulnerable even without "disorder" on the world stage - primarily because it is still divided by referendum and, more importantly, because it lacks those things that make up the essence of a state: strong and independent institutions that would welcome and welcome any government. Similar troubles are also being suffered by Montenegro's neighbors, especially those that are not in the EU.
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The Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) and its long-time leader Milo Djukanovic have completely shaped the direction in which Montenegro has been moving in the first 14 years since the referendum. They paved the way for the "liberators", who in 2020, with the assistance of the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), removed them from power after three decades. So now - although some of them were against the restoration of the state, and still dispute its symbols to this day - they are bringing the negotiations with the EU, which were started by the DPS government, giving panegyrics about Montenegro as a reliable NATO partner, although they did not support it, but also nurturing the system that the DPS left them, and thus keeping the country "captive" in a partitocracy, reaping the fruits of power that had eluded them for decades.
However, it would be foolish to say that Montenegro has not made any progress in the past 20 years, which the newspaper's interlocutors agree with. They argue that democracy and the rule of law are undoubtedly at a higher level than in 2006, and that the same applies to media freedoms and human rights. Changes for the better have been "brewing" for years, but it seems that what Montenegrin society is at least declaratively striving for will require years of hard work and introspection.
In order for the 230.661 who voted for independence 20 years ago today to be able to call the country their own, as well as the 185.002 who wanted to remain in union with Serbia, but also the generations that came and are coming after them, and those who left Montenegro in search of a better life - it is necessary, for a start, to step out of the trenches and admit: that such a small country can hardly survive if allies on the other side are not sought for the most important decisions.
The little ones don't survive without maneuvering.
Teaching associate at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Podgorica Mladen Grgić He told "Vijesti" that Montenegro today has formal sovereignty, but that as a small and open economy it operates within serious limitations imposed by the global economy, security alliances and international integration.
However, he states that this is not specific to Montenegro, but a characteristic of almost all modern states.
"That is why today the issue of sovereignty is less about the formal right of a state to make decisions, and much more about its actual capacity to conduct autonomous economic, security and development policies, and to balance between national interests and the limited sovereignty imposed by the complexity of the international system," he notes.
Grgić noted that in small states, the room for maneuver for such action is further narrowed by dependence on foreign capital, tourism, energy and international financial flows, adding that this is precisely why the quality of institutions is crucial - the weaker the state is institutionally, the less its actual autonomy is, regardless of formal sovereignty.
"This is also seen in the European integration process, where we often implement reforms primarily due to external pressure and meeting formal criteria, while the essential transformation of institutions and the development of administrative capacity remain limited," he underlined.
Za Esada Kočan, long-time editor-in-chief of "Monitor", Montenegro is not sovereign today in the sense that it independently makes decisions on important issues, let alone at the international level.
He pointed out that it is obvious that, whatever happens with Montenegro in the foreseeable future - "it may be able to improve something, but it has no subjectivity on the international level."
"Look at current events - the crimes in Palestine, the reappearance of (the American president) donald) Trampa"We see a new fascism of the world before our eyes, and how is the Montenegrin government behaving?" the interviewee asked.
Kočan assessed that Montenegro lacks strength because it is economically dependent and does not have a political class that would create a strong state from within, saying that it belongs to the countries that do not have a developed so-called second independence.
"The second independence is the independence of citizens from the government, a democratic institution that is not controlled by political power combined with the tycoon-economic class that did not come from the ranks of the most capable, but the most greedy... This was especially evident after the change of government in 2020, while at the same time the power of the Serbian Orthodox Church grew," he told "Vijesti".
When it comes to sovereignty, the Government is fully aligned with the EU's foreign policy, and Podgorica's positions do not differ from those in Brussels, so, for example, the unprovoked attack by the United States and Israel on Iran is not condemned, while Tehran's response to it through strikes on the United Arab Emirates provokes reactions from the highest state officials, who stand in defense of the territorial integrity of the Gulf state.
On the other hand, the editorial staff's claims about economic dependence are perhaps best supported by data on the state's external debt. According to the Central Bank of Montenegro, at the end of 2006 it amounted to 504 million euros, or 27,6 percent of the then gross domestic product (GDP), while at the end of last year it was 4,85 billion euros, or almost 60 percent of GDP.
"You run away from thieves, you run into chauvinists"
Former long-time MP and official of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which was part of the so-called sovereigntist bloc, Džavid Sabović He said that Montenegro is not a sovereign state today, and that this can be seen in the example of the current state leadership, which he assessed as "blind obedient servants and vassals of Belgrade."
"... It's as if they're competing to see who will please them the most - by that I mean everyone, even those who are not interesting to Belgrade," he said.
Šabović said that the idea before the referendum was to create a Montenegro of all its citizens and peoples, but that, unfortunately, "it wasn't exactly as they thought."
"Those who were true leaders and leaders at the beginning began to slowly move away from our common goal. They thought more about themselves, their pockets, their families, and I slowly began to become disappointed, so at the end of my last term I was against such people," he told "Vijesti".
The interviewee assesses that when "you run away from thieves - you run into chauvinists", adding that the new government "totally deceived the people".
"They raised salaries and pensions, and the people rushed in... 'These are good, these are European', and we see what they really are. It turns out they just felt bad that they weren't there instead of these people earlier... They used to be little kittens for these people today," Šabović concluded.
Neven Gosovic, a former MP for the Socialist People's Party (SNP), which was part of the bloc for a common state, told the newspaper that Montenegro is today a country that is deep in the process of European integration, but that the key question is not just whether the country is formally sovereign - because, according to him, it has always been that way.
"The key question is who this sovereignty served. DPS has long treated sovereignty as a private deed, not as a statesman's obligation. They did not build a state of all citizens, but a mechanism of power of one party, one network and one circle of interests. That is why Montenegro was independent on paper, but trapped in practice," he said.
He claims that Montenegro is more sovereign today than it was then, because it is no longer trapped "in a single political will", explaining that sovereignty is not just a flag, anthem and a chair in international organizations, but when "a citizen knows that the state does not belong to any criminal organization".
"Sovereignty is when the government can change without threats, blackmail, fear, and talk about forests...", says Gošović.
Without 1997, there would be no 2006.
The legacy of the DPS is not negative in every respect, and one of the positive things is the country's orientation towards the so-called Euro-Atlantic path, which the majority of citizens, as can be concluded from public opinion polls, support. What the DPS often promoted as its virtue was their competence in conducting what can today be considered modern Western politics.
Mladen Grgić points out that the restoration of independence in 2006 itself showed that Montenegro had the political capacity to define and achieve its strategic goals, despite serious internal and external pressures, especially considering that the international and regional environment at that time was extremely negative towards the idea of independence.
According to him, this is precisely why the success of the referendum had a much broader significance than an internal political issue - it was proof of the political maturity and ability of a small state to articulate and implement a strategic goal despite pressure and skepticism.
"For a small state, which does not have great military or economic power, the key resource is not force, but credibility. And credibility rests on the strength of institutions, the quality of democracy and the ability of the state to be a predictable and reliable partner. Small states in modern international relations do not survive through a demonstration of power, but through the ability to build alliances, understand international processes and carefully position their interests," he said, adding that, in this sense, NATO membership and the path towards the EU show that Montenegro still possesses a certain level of political and diplomatic capacity.
However, the interviewee notes that modern politics is not conducted only from the outside, and that if a state wants to project certain values in international relations - democracy, the rule of law, stability or the European system of values - then it must first successfully live those values within its own society.
"In other words, the quality of foreign policy directly depends on the quality of internal institutions. This is exactly what is seen today, where foreign policy often operates uncoordinated, without clear priorities, and is handled by too many people with different views and directions of action. But if you look at the structure of the Government, the number of members and departments, then this is not strange," Grgić underlined.
He said that it is difficult to draw parallels between 2006 and today, because the challenges 20 years ago were different - greater than in the last decade. He asserted that Montenegro is today an internationally recognized state, a member of NATO, a country that is the most likely future member of the EU and a society that, despite numerous problems, is still freer and more pluralistic than it was two decades ago.
"But that process did not begin yesterday, nor in 2020, nor in 2006, but in 1997, when Montenegro finally abandoned its disastrous policy." Slobodan Milosevic", is gaining international political credit that will be crucial for holding the referendum despite the negative attitudes of key partners and is slowly turning its course towards the West. Without that date, there would be no 2006," the interlocutor said.
Grgić emphasized that today there is a greater degree of individual freedom, openness to the world, greater mobility of people, access to education, technologies and international markets, and that in economic terms, the standard of living is objectively higher than in 2006, regardless of the serious structural problems that the country continues to face.
However, he notes that, in parallel with these positive processes, Montenegrin society is constantly trapped in a model of partitocracy, weak institutions and limited meritocracy. The general impression, Grgić claims, especially among young people, is that party affiliation and political connections carry more weight than knowledge and professionalism.
"This weakens the state's capacity in the long term and creates distrust in institutions," he said.
Only when bullets aren't flying...
Asked what positive and negative things have marked the past 20 years, Esad Kočan replied that the best thing about 2006 was that it passed peacefully. He said that it was no small feat that the citizens of Montenegro decided on their state status with votes, not bullets.
"The fact that the result of the referendum was accepted by both the then opposition parties and those who voted 'no' in the referendum speaks volumes. And the fact that it passed peacefully is also their merit. Just participating in the process is already a positive relationship. The fact that someone voted differently in a legitimate referendum does not mean that they should be classified as some kind of patent enemies of Montenegro," he said.
Milo Đukanović would apparently disagree with Kočan. Five years ago, as head of state, speaking about certain proposals for ambassadorial positions, he said that those who were against the restoration of Montenegrin independence "have no moral right" to seek Montenegro's consent to be its diplomatic representatives.
The long-time editor-in-chief of the influential weekly also sees the first change of government in the 2020 elections as a positive thing. He pointed out that the change occurred at a delicate moment and with a close result.
"If someone had asked me what the change of government in Montenegro would be like, I would have always said before that it would be more dramatic than it was in 2020," Kočan added.
Ahead of the elections on August 30, 2020, individuals close to the then opposition, and the current government, claimed that the DPS, if it loses the elections, would take tanks to the streets, and that the arsenal of weapons had been distributed to groups close to the DPS. However, these claims turned out to be false.
For Kočan, a positive thing was the population census at the end of 2023, which he assessed as perhaps the best move by the current executive government - which accepted all the conditions that were necessary, and perhaps even those that were not.
"We now take it for granted that the census was conducted and that the results were accepted by everyone. It didn't seem like it was going to be that way," he said.
The census was conducted after a two-year delay, and the opposition was enabled to monitor the manner in which it was conducted and the results were calculated through several control mechanisms.
Kočan sees the increased influence of the church as bad things, but also “lost hope.” He said that one of the fastest-disappearing illusions is that the change of generations will bring something good.
"Let's say that young people who don't have a mortgage from the war will be ready to face the past, that they will be less greedy when it comes to privileges, that an administration will slowly begin to be created that will be state-owned, not party-owned. We have this greed for privileges, for monopolies. This is a taken over mechanism, it was given some ideological colors and it continued at the same pace," the interviewee assessed.
Kočan says that in the past, a huge concentration of power was in the hands of Đukanović and his "tycoon circle", and that he would not say that there is such a concentration of power in a single circle now, because no one is even close to implementing it at the level it once was.
"But the power of the political class, as a class, to dominate the agenda of change in Montenegro, to shape it, remains unchanged," he underlined.
Slow, difficult and painful changes
Neven Gošović assessed for "Vijesti" that Montenegro has shown that it can lead modern politics, but only when it began to free itself from the logic that one party is the same as the state. He stated that the biggest untruth of the DPS was that without them there would be no Montenegro, that it was political blackmail by an irresponsible generation - "either they, or the disappearance of the state", and that time has shown the opposite.
He stated that the capacities are modest, because Montenegro is a small country, with limited human resources, an overloaded administration, and a system that was built for decades under the DPS according to party logic, not professional logic.
"But that's exactly why it's important to say - the problem is not that Montenegro can't do it alone. The problem is that for three decades they have been convinced that it can't do it without DPS," he added.
Gošović said that Montenegro has changed slowly, difficultly and often painfully since 2006, but that it has changed in the most important way: today it is freer than it was before.
"Today, the government is replaceable, citizens are less afraid, voters can more easily vote according to their conscience, the media, the civil sector and the public are much more free to open up topics that were once locked behind party doors...", the interviewee assessed.
He said that it was also better that the European path had regained real momentum after years of stagnation, and that the fight against organized crime was stronger than ever. He also said that it was now much clearer how deep the consequences of a system that had been built as a private state for decades were.
"We see how difficult it is to recover institutions that have been captured by parties for too long. We see how difficult it is to heal a society that has been deliberately divided," he said, emphasizing that today it is "not worse," but "freer, but still not sufficiently just."
The former SNP MP says that until 2006, Montenegro had institutions, but did not have full institutional freedom, and that democracy today is not perfect, but it is more vibrant.
"The government is changing. The public is braver. Affaires are being opened. Processes are being initiated. No one can count on ruling for thirty years without accountability. Montenegrin society has shown that it is ready to make sacrifices. Citizens have shown that they can withstand pressure, division, fear and propaganda...", says Gošović.
Victories and defeats
When talking about victories and defeats over the past 20 years, for most of the public, it can be reduced to a few points. Membership in NATO and rapid accession to the EU are seen as triumphs, while failure is reflected in the weakness of institutions, divisions, partitocracy...
Mladen Grgić stated that Montenegro's greatest success is that it managed to preserve peace and stability in a region that went through wars, state collapses and deep social traumas during the 1990s. This, he added, does not mean that the facts that the state has not always managed to ensure peace and security for others can be ignored.
"First of all, I am thinking of war crimes (deportations, Dubrovnik, Štrpce, weekend warriors...) and the very problematic role of some political and state structures during the 1990s," he explained.
Grgić assessed that another important success is the preservation of the democratic framework of the state, and that Montenegro today is a more democratic and open society than it was. According to him, this democracy is often unfinished and burdened with numerous weaknesses, but it is still functional.
On the other hand, the interviewee sees the biggest defeat as the fact that a framework for the rule of law has not been built.
"Even after independence, institutions remained weak, but even after the political changes of 2020, they were often politicized and insufficiently resistant to party, economic, personal interests, as well as external ones and those coming from religious organizations. This is probably the key reason why the state continues to have difficulty achieving long-term social and economic development," said Grgić, noting that without the rule of law there is no serious economy, no trust of citizens, and no efficient state.
He stated that strengthening institutions is not a matter of money, but of political will and knowledge. Instead, Grgić points out that a system was often built in which party connections were more important than capacity, and short-term political interests than the long-term development of the state.
"And that has continued, perhaps even more starkly after the political changes. On the other hand, Montenegro is also a society in which serious conflict issues are channeled through institutions. But I think that successes should not be romanticized. These should not be exceptions that we admire, but the standard of a normal and orderly state. We should not be delighted that politics is working at the bare minimum," he said.
Esad Kočan assessed that Montenegrin society is vulnerable and that this is best demonstrated by the fact that the political class easily establishes control over it. He recalled that a huge number of people are leaving the country, and that this is a dangerous trend.
"We have entire areas abandoned, and this is happening simultaneously from the periphery of the country to its center and from its center to other countries," he added.
Kočan said that Montenegro has a "poor consciousness", and that it cannot possibly turn around and say: "This country and this society can be a decent place to live". The interlocutor stated that it is difficult to compensate for the large number of personnel leaving Montenegro, and that no one is seriously addressing these issues.
He recalled that the state was under the control of parties even before 2006, and that it was a matter of the dominance of a pyramid in which politics, crime and business were combined.
"... But the dismantling of that system is not happening. Not only is it not happening, and we are not satisfied with the pace, but the way it is being done is to take over the preserved monopolies," Kočan assessed.
Neven Gošović's greatest successes are the European path, preserving peace, its multiethnic character, and the fact that Montenegro has shown that it can survive a political change of government, while his greatest defeat is that DPS tried to privatize the idea of the state.
"Instead of independence being the beginning of a civil, legal and European Montenegro, it has been used for too long as a shield for party enrichment, institutional control and the production of divisions. This is a historical sin - they took the most noble idea, the state, and tried to turn it into a title deed," he said, adding that the defeat is also that the judiciary was not liberated earlier, as well as that young people are leaving, who have wasted decades on false dilemmas while small private empires were built behind big words...
Šabović: Supposedly, we are running towards Europe, but in reality we are not moving from our place
Džavid Šabović pointed out that 2006 was a year of strength and hope, but that nationalism is more than present in today's society, and that "walking with a monument" and openly celebrating war criminals is outrageous, alluding to the case of the erection of a monument to Chetnik commander Pavle Đurišić in Gornji Zaostr.
"... And then they act like democrats. I will never accept that. No matter what their name is, whether it's Pavle or Osman - for me they are all the same criminals," emphasized Šabović.
He pointed out that the country used to "run" towards Europe, and that now it is supposedly "running", but in fact it is not moving from its place.
Asked where he sees the country in 20 years, Šabović replied that, if the people do not start electing their "real representatives," Montenegro could be the 27th electoral unit in Serbia.
Gošović: The myth of the untouchability of DPS has been shattered
Neven Gošović points out that immediately after the restoration of independence, the most important thing could have been done - the separation of the state from the party, and that during that period an independent judiciary could have been built, public administration professionalized...
Why not? Gošović says the answer lies in the fact that the DPS did not like a modern, but rather controlled, state.
"A state in which the institution is formally public, but essentially party-based. A state in which patriotism was a slogan and privilege was a reality. A state in which citizens were told about identity, while those closest to the regime received jobs, concessions, influence and protection," the interlocutor underlined.
He says that what was long unexpected has been done - the "myth of untouchability" has been shattered.
"This is the biggest change from 2006 to today: Montenegro has only been slowly returning to those to whom it has always belonged - the citizens, since 2020," Gošović concluded.
Kočan: These will be two long years
Esad Kočan assessed that the path towards the EU is the period when the most qualitative changes occur - while the eyes of the international community are focused on Montenegro.
However, he states that the set of circumstances is such that there is a desire for the EU to accept Montenegro as soon as possible, and that the consequence of this is a lowering of the criteria, which, according to the interlocutor, is not good for Montenegro.
"At the same time, Vučić's anti-Europeans do not allow important topics to be in focus, but constantly take us back to the past, and that is why much less has been achieved... These will be two long years, perhaps the longest in the recent history of Montenegro, because they will do everything to prevent Montenegro from joining the EU," said Kočan.
Grgić: Montenegrin economy - we live by spending part of the future
Mladen Grgić sees the problem in the fact that the state has not fully defined a sustainable model of economic development. He believes that reliance on consumption, tourism and external sources of capital is too great, while productive sectors of the economy remain underdeveloped.
"And today's economic model does not offer sustainable development, but redistribution, without creating new value. In a way, we live by spending part of our future - through the growth of debt (public and private), the sale of resources, or the absence of a long-term development strategy," he said.
Grgić says that if Montenegro is compared to part of the region, it is clear that progress has been made, but if it is compared to more successful European countries, then it becomes obvious how far it still lags behind.
"Countries should not compare themselves to those who are worse off than them, but to those who are better off. Only in this way can they realistically see how much room they still have for progress," he stressed.
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