"Forgot" who they are to fish for votes and foreigners: Political acrobatics of NSD and Andrija Mandić

New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and its leader Andrija Mandic In the last 10 days or so, they have taken a series of moves that are contrary to their long-standing actions, which "Vijesti" interlocutors see as an example of political pragmatism, or the calculation that such a more moderate approach could bring them more benefits than harm.

Mandić broke the "ice" by attending a reception organized by the Prime Minister on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of the restoration of state independence. Milojko Spajic, thus continuing his "conciliatory" mission, which he has been carrying out since the 2023 presidential election campaign, and especially after he was appointed head of parliament in October of that year.

This was followed by the decision of the NSD leadership at the end of last week to put support for the initiative to withdraw recognition of Kosovo in Pljevlja on hold until it sees the effects of that decision in Zeta, thus adopting the proposal of their long-time coalition partner, the Democratic People's Party (DNP). Milan Knežević, was briefly blocked in the northernmost Montenegrin municipality. This morning, as announced, that decision was reversed after talks between the party committees from Pljevlja and Zeta, and they will still support Knežević's initiative.

The "icing on the cake" was the vote by NSD MPs the night before last to amend the Law on the Descendants of the Petrović Njegoš Dynasty, which nevertheless retained the formulation that Montenegro was forcibly annexed in 1918 - something the NSD has always denied. MPs from that party Jovan Vučurović i Dejan Djurovic At the end of December last year, when the amendments to the law were initially discussed, they proposed that the term “forcible annexation” be completely removed from the regulations. At the time, they explained that it was important to remove “any unilateral historical interpretations” from the text.

However, these decisions did not go without the scolding of those with whom the NSD and Mandić had been "colluding" for years. Thus, from the mouth of the President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić could hear that the only thing he was certain about was that Knežević and his deputies did not vote for changes to the regulations on the Petrovićs - because the DNP leader is an "honorable and upright Serb" - until the local propaganda outlets "caught wind" of Mandić's announcement that after the Petrovićs had been "repaid their debt", the property of the Karađorđević dynasty and the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC) would be returned.

Discovered pragmatism

Political scientist Miloš Perović He told "Vijesti" that perhaps the key question is not whether the NSD's latest moves are ideological turns, but whether the party has assessed that the political benefit of demonstrating statesmanship is greater than the harm it may suffer in its traditional electorate.

"In just a few weeks, NSD and Mandić have sent a series of signals that contradict the policies for which the party has been recognizable for years," Perović asserted, adding that Mandić is no longer an opposition leader who politically profits from confrontation with state symbols and dominant narratives about the independence of Montenegro, but that, as the first man in the Parliament and one of the key pillars of government, he obviously has an interest in showing international partners, but also a part of the Montenegrin public, that the NSD can be a factor of stability, not a permanent political crisis.

According to him, this is precisely why the NSD leader can be interpreted as being willing to "swallow" certain symbolic defeats in order to preserve his broader political position.

Perović noted that such a strategy, however, also carries risks, because for decades the NSD has built its identity on clearly defined issues - the attitude towards the 2006 referendum, Kosovo and the interpretation of the events of 1918.

"When he sends more moderate and pragmatic messages in all three fields in a short period of time, he opens the door to accusations that he is abandoning his own principles for the sake of preserving power," the interlocutor assessed.

A journalist from the weekly "Monitor" agrees that the cause of the NSD's unusual signals is pragmatism. Zoran RadulovićHe told "Vijesti" that he thinks the reality of the situation in Montenegro is a measure of the transformation of Mandić's party.

"Following both public opinion polls and the demonstration of devotion to May 21st that we had on the streets of Montenegro, it is obvious that some of their stories don't really hold water, and that they are then a little willing to move away from what could have caused them problems - ignoring Independence Day, opposing Montenegrin independence...", he stated.

However, Radulović recalled that Mandić in Banja Luka, immediately after receiving Spajić, said that the NSD is not giving up on its strategic goals.

"The party's basic policy remains for them - Montenegro as the third Serbian state," the interlocutor said.

At the Assembly of the "United Srpska" party in Banja Luka, four days after the reception by the Montenegrin Prime Minister, the head of parliament said that many still want the Serbian people in Montenegro to be "returned to the position of second-class citizens", saying that he wanted his address to be a symbol of strong cooperation between the Serbian people and their political representatives that no one can prevent, "because we belong to the same culture, the same church and nation".

"We are us, a living organism that is exposed to numerous, often ill-intentioned and conflicting influences on different parts of our national body," Mandić said at the time.

Perović: There will hardly be a split

And will the NSD's political acrobatics upset those within the party who still hold on to the "original postulates", and perhaps lead to divisions? Miloš Perović believes that the possible consequences of the latest decisions will probably not manifest themselves through an open split within the party. He stated that the NSD is a traditionally hierarchically organized party with strong top-level control over local committees and officials, so it is difficult to expect the public formation of factions.

"It is much more realistic that there will be growing tension between the pragmatic policies of the party leadership and the expectations of a portion of the membership on the ground, especially in environments where identity issues remain a dominant political motive," he added.

The events in Pljevlja best demonstrate that there was turmoil in Mandić's party due to the new course. Although the head of the Pljevlja NSD Milan Lekic came out publicly and said that the councilors' club would wait with any possible support for the initiative to recognize Kosovo, first four out of ten NSD councilors in the Pljevlja parliament signed the DNP initiative, despite his words, and then it was announced today that they would still support the proposal of Knežević's party, after talking with their colleagues from Zeta.

For Perović, the essential question is whether the NSD has assessed that it no longer depends primarily on identity mobilization, but on the political power it possesses today as part of the government.

"Unlike the period 10 or 15 years ago, the party today does not rest solely on the ideological commitment of voters. In recent years, a significant number of party cadres and people close to the NSD have obtained positions in state administration, public enterprises and other institutions. Such a network of political influence creates a much stronger connection between the party and its activist core than was once formed by national and identity issues alone. Therefore, a mass exodus of voters does not seem particularly likely at the moment," says the interlocutor.

However, he warns that there is another danger - that if the NSD continues to take more pragmatic positions, the DNP could gradually take on the role of "guardian of the original principles" within the pro-Serbian political bloc.

"In such a division of roles, Mandić would probably retain the largest part of the electorate and institutional power, but Knežević could strengthen his political authority and negotiating position by presenting himself as a more consistent advocate of the issues around which that political bloc was created," Perović concluded.

Radulović: Space for other coalitions

Zoran Radulović believes that there is a possibility of splits within the NSD, but that the public still has no reason to suspect that Mandić and Knežević's play is not synchronized.

"And those who would leave the NSD would end up with Knežević, and as strange as it may be - they would remain members of the same coalition that is still in force and functioning," he says.

Even before the January “split”, i.e. the DNP's exit from the government, Mandić and Knežević have been playing the roles of “good” and “bad” cops. Almost as a rule, Mandić takes a broader, more liberal position, while Knežević acts as a “hardliner”.

Asked what the NSD could gain and lose with such moves, Radulović replied that they could lose a more radical electorate, while gaining some of the voters of the Democrats and the Europe Now Movement (PES), and that he thinks that in their calculations they are counting on gaining more than they can lose.

"The second thing is that Mandić is positioning himself as acceptable to the majority - both in Montenegro and in the international community. And the third thing is that somewhere on the far side, with such a shift towards the center, it is possible that - not tomorrow, not maybe after the next elections, but later - Mandić will open up space for the possibility that the Democrats and PES are not his only coalition partners," said the interlocutor, explaining that the possibility is also opening up that one day someone in the NSD who says out loud: "Why don't we form a coalition with the Democratic Party of Socialists", will not be burned "like a witch", but will provoke reflection on the topic.

Perović: Mandić believes he can be moderate and not lose voters

NSD spokesperson Mirko Miličić announced yesterday that the vote on amendments to the Law on the Status of Descendants of the Petrović Njegoš Dynasty was not a vote on the history of 1918 or the character of the then "unification", but on specific property and legal issues.

When asked whether Miličić and Mandić's justifications that the return of property to the Karađorđevićs and the Serbian Orthodox Church is now possible can be accepted by their voters, Miloš Perović replied that the NSD will probably build its defense of its move on that logic.

"It is politically much easier for the party to present support for the law as part of a broader process of restitution and correction of historical injustices, rather than as acceptance of the narrative of the 'forced annexation' of 1918. In other words, the argument will not be that they have changed their position on history, but that they have supported resolving the property issues of the Petrović Njegoš family and opened the space for similar principles to be used in the future to raise issues of Karađorđević or SPC property," he stated.

Perović emphasized that the question remains how long it is possible to maintain such a political balance.

"Mandić obviously believes that he can simultaneously send moderate messages to the center and the international community, without losing his dominant position among pro-Serb voters. Time will tell whether this assessment is correct," the source concluded.