In order for Montenegro to avoid a massive outflow of labor after it joins the European Union (EU), it needs, first and foremost, the will of the establishment to thoroughly address the issue and create serious national strategies to combat the “labor” exodus. The transition period after accession, in which citizens will not be able to work in the EU without permits, can represent an opportunity for the state to strengthen the economy, improve standards, and thus give citizens a chance for a dignified life in their country.
This is how the interlocutors of "Vijesti" answer the question of how Montenegro could prevent the Croatian scenario and the mass departure of the workforce after entering the EU.
This issue arises in the context of the upcoming closure of the negotiating chapter that deals with this topic - Chapter 2 (freedom of movement of workers).
Upon joining the Union, Montenegrin citizens would be able to find employment in some member states immediately, and in others after a certain number of years (transition period), without any additional bureaucratic obstacles, with equal rights as workers there.
The newspaper announced yesterday that after Montenegro joins the EU, its citizens in certain member states could wait up to nine years for free work and equal treatment as citizens there, according to the four plus two plus three years (4+2+3) model.
A source from the Ministry of European Affairs said that the member states had different views on the issue, but also that "Croatia's experience has shown that we must protect our workforce and economy."
The case of the neighboring country has raised the question of how Montenegro's entry into the European club could affect the domestic labor market, and above all, the departure of qualified personnel. Croatia became an EU member in 2013, and since then, a huge number of young people have left the country, causing a demographic crisis and the need to import labor.
How is Montenegro preparing to avoid facing the same problem as Croatia upon joining the Union? "Vijesti" asked the Ministry of Labor, Employment and Social Dialogue what the state's plan is to prevent the departure of people, especially young people, and whether there is a clear strategy for such action. Although the editorial office was informed that the answers would be delivered, they had not arrived by the time this issue of the newspaper was published.
Bulgarian: Departure of the best is inevitable
Immigration law expert Bojan Bulgarian He told "Vijesti" that he believes that most EU members will open their labor markets to Montenegrin citizens quite quickly, because, according to him, there is now a much greater demand for foreign workers at the European level than, for example, in 2013, when Croatia joined the EU.
He stated that the arrival of labor from Montenegro to EU countries could in no way cause any disruption to the local labor market, because a large number of people would not come.
Bugarin said that it is realistic to expect that a maximum of 30 to 50 thousand young people will leave the country within five years of joining the EU.
"Considering the huge problem that Montenegro has with its workforce, I would perhaps secretly wish that the transition period were longer. Although many young, smart people who can't wait to leave Montenegro and go to a more organized country might resent me for that," Bugarin said.
He explained that Montenegro used to compensate for its labor shortage by bringing people from neighboring countries, but that this is difficult now, because they are going to Western Europe.
"Now we are also immigrants, bringing in more and more people from African and asylum countries," the interviewee notes.
But Bugarin says that no matter how long the transition period is, he does not believe that Montenegro will be able to adopt a serious workforce planning strategy that will clearly set out steps to meet the needs of the Montenegrin economy for workers. The reason for this attitude, he says, is a visible lack of political will on the issue.
However, he points out that, even if the political will existed and a serious plan was made, it would still be very difficult to retain the most educated personnel in the sought-after industries (such as doctors or engineers), because Montenegro simply cannot match the conditions offered by the economies of the most developed countries in Western Europe.
Where the interviewee sees that the state could be successful is in retaining, colloquially speaking, less educated personnel.
"You can, in cooperation between the Government, employers, unions, and appropriate measures, come up with employment models where, for example, the Government could subsidize employers, participating by paying one third of the salary from the budget, and two thirds would be covered by the employer. So, through things where the Government, in cooperation with employers, could offer better economic conditions to young people, so that they do not leave Montenegro," Bugarin concluded.
He emphasizes that state participation is absolutely necessary, because employers themselves will never do it because they are guided by the idea of profit.
"If he (the employer) needs to hire a certain number of workers and if it will cost him dearly, he will always resort to the solution of bringing workers from Turkey or India, where he will get more or less the same result with those workers, and he will spend much less money," he said.
Otašević: Transition period of opportunity
Executive Director of the Center for Migration and Multiculturalism Policies Dragana Otašević, told "Vijesti" that the transitional system that allows individual EU members to temporarily limit access to their labor market could represent an opportunity for Montenegro to create conditions for retaining its population and improving the competitiveness of its economy before the full implementation of the freedom of movement of workers.
"Although these measures are formally introduced to protect the labor markets of existing member states, they may also have an indirect positive effect for Montenegro because they reduce the possibility of a sudden outflow of labor immediately after EU accession. This leaves the country additional space to improve the living and working conditions of its citizens, through the implementation of reforms, strengthening the competitiveness of the economy, improving living standards and creating policies for the retention and return of the population," she assessed.
Otašević says that this mechanism, although it does not prevent citizens from going abroad on other grounds, can slow down the intensity of migration in the first years after EU accession, and that it should therefore be viewed as a development opportunity, and not just as a technical part of the accession negotiations.
"Whether a period of four, six or nine years will be sufficient will depend primarily on the state's ability to improve the living standards of its citizens, increase wages, create new and quality jobs and create an environment in which its citizens will see their future. If this is achieved, Montenegro can significantly reduce the risk of a mass outflow of population after the full opening of the European labor market," the interviewee stated.
Asked how Montenegro can avoid the Croatian scenario, because after the neighboring country entered the European club, according to estimates by local institutions, at least 400.000 people left the country, Otašević replied that because of such examples, Podgorica must work in a timely manner to create conditions that will motivate citizens to build their future in Montenegro.
"Croatia's experience has shown that after its entry into the Union, there was a significant increase in the outflow of population, especially young and qualified workers, as new opportunities opened up for them in more developed European labor markets. The key answer to this challenge is not to restrict freedom of movement, but to strengthen the economy, increase living standards, open quality jobs and create clear opportunities for the professional development of young people, as well as the return of our citizens and their descendants from abroad," she pointed out.
She emphasized that it is particularly important to improve housing policy for youth, connect the education system with the needs of the labor market, provide stronger support for the development of entrepreneurship and innovation, and ensure that progress in society is based on knowledge, work, and results.
Therefore, according to her, the best response to the potential Croatian scenario is not to limit the rights that come with EU membership, but to create and implement policies and programs that will make Montenegro a place where citizens will want to stay, and those who go to gain experience abroad will have a reason to return.
Otašević: The key to remaining in a functional society and economy
When asked what a plan for retaining Montenegrin citizens in the country should look like, Dragana Otašević replied that a comprehensive policy for retaining the population should be created, and then a special national program aimed at reducing its outflow, especially young and highly educated people.
"Such a policy should not be the responsibility of just one department, but the result of the coordinated work of multiple institutions and social actors," she stated.
She emphasized that special attention should be paid to connecting with the diaspora and creating programs that would encourage the return of experts and young people who have gained experience abroad.
"What is encouraging is the fact that the topic of diaspora return is already woven into the Law on Cooperation of Montenegro with the Diaspora - Emigrants, that is, it already exists in the normative and strategic framework of the state. Now it is necessary to create a concrete policy and national return program," the interviewee concluded.
Otašević said that it is important to emphasize that the EU does not cause people to leave, but rather enables it, and that the key to staying or returning depends on how economically and socially functional Montenegro is.
Bulgarian: No need to invent hot water
In order to create a good national strategy for retaining the workforce, especially young people, Bojan Bugarin says that it is necessary to create a good team at the executive level, which, in cooperation with the Chamber of Commerce, the Employers' Union, unions, representatives of municipalities and certain industries, will be able to control these processes.
"There are plenty of examples, you don't have to invent anything new. Slovenia has come up with a lot of good programs in recent years to compensate for the loss of the workforce, to retain young Slovenians. If there is political will and readiness, someone should take this seriously. The question is whether people from the political establishment, and then from the institutional establishment, are ready to take this issue seriously," Bugarin said.
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