The German-French non-paper, which was discussed at the EU-Western Balkans Summit in early June in Tivat, represents an acknowledgement that responsibility for the slowdown in the enlargement process lies not only with the candidate countries, but also with the European Union itself, said Vijesti's interlocutors, emphasizing that, as Montenegro has entered the final phase of preparations for membership, it can only benefit from this.
The non-paper proposes a model of gradual integration, which would allow candidate countries access to certain European policies, funds and parts of the single market even before formal membership. The non-paper is due to be considered by the EU Council soon.
The European Commission's new decision to open the first negotiation clusters with Moldova and Ukraine on Monday shows that the goal is to accelerate and continue enlargement after Montenegro's entry into the EU.
"This is a recognition of the determination, courage and hard work that both countries have shown in advancing reforms, even in the face of enormous challenges," the statement said. Antonija Košte and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
On the other hand, Montenegro will close two more chapters on Monday. These are Chapter 2 - Freedom of Movement of Workers and Chapter 28 - Consumer and Health Protection. This will bring the total number of chapters that Montenegro has closed so far to 16, out of a total of 33. The government's plan is to close all negotiation chapters by the end of the year, so that Montenegro can become the 28th member of the EU in 2028.
An incentive for Montenegro in the final phase of negotiations
Analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI) Adnan ĆerimagiIt is worth reminding that most of the non-paper is not new and that it mainly elaborates on ideas that have been circulating in Brussels for a long time, and some of them have already come to life through the so-called Growth Plan.
"One thing, however, is a real novelty, because so far neither Berlin nor Paris have said it this openly: a country that implements all the necessary reforms and meets the conditions could enter the EU single market faster - immediately, without waiting for the ratification of the accession treaty and full membership," Ćerimagić told Vijesti.
According to him, most of the non-paper does not apply to Montenegro, which, if it continues reforms at the current pace, has a realistic prospect of signing an accession treaty in the coming period.
This, he says, would allow Croatia, like it once did, to have its members sit in the European Parliament as observers, for ministers to participate in Council sessions, and for representatives to be in the Commission's working groups.
"That's already significantly more than what the document offers to other candidates," he said.
He stated that the only concrete benefit that the non-paper brings to Montenegro in that scenario, which even a treaty like the Croatian one would not provide, is the right to enjoy the single market and all four freedoms immediately upon meeting the conditions for closing negotiations, and not only after ratification and full membership.
He assessed that it was an important incentive right now, in the final phase of negotiations, which are taking place even before the parliamentary elections, and when some of the most difficult decisions are ahead and when a broad consensus will be needed, including constitutional changes.
"We can say clearly to politicians, citizens and businesses: close ranks now, because you will not wait for uncertain ratification to reap the benefits, you will feel them as soon as the negotiations are closed," he said.
The Tivat Summit confirmed that Montenegro is in a different position
The President's Office told Vijesti that the EU-Western Balkans Summit in Tivat further confirmed that Montenegro is in a different position compared to other candidate countries, as it is the furthest advanced in negotiations and is in the final phase of its European path.
"The fact that Montenegro hosted the most important European summit, which brought together leaders of EU member states as well as heads of European institutions, shows that our country is today viewed as a credible partner and a country that has the capacity to be the next member of the Union," they pointed out.
Therefore, as they add, the summit in Tivat was not only an important diplomatic event, but also a political message. It demonstrated European confidence in Montenegro; but also the fact that Montenegro "is no longer on the margins of the European debate, but at the European table, in discussions concerning the final stages of enlargement, the future of the region and concrete steps towards membership."
The cabinet says that it is important because both the President of Montenegro Jakov Milatović and the President of the European Council Antonio Košta pointed out in Tivat that Montenegro is in a different position.
"The same messages were heard from other leaders, starting with the French president Emanuel Macron and the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz", who visited our country for the first time in history," they said.
That Montenegro is in a different position, as they say, is confirmed by the fact that the Working Group for the preparation of the treaty on Montenegro's accession to the EU was established, precisely after the closure of almost half of the negotiation chapters "and the great diplomatic activity of President Milatović, but also the important role that Cyprus played in all of this as the chairman of the EU Council".
"This is evidenced by the messages we received from the leaders of the EU and member states, who at the Summit in Tivat sent a message about Montenegro as the next member of the Union and a country that has a real chance of becoming the 28th member of the EU by 2028," they pointed out.
They say that it is therefore crucial for Montenegro to complete its remaining obligations: reforms in the area of the rule of law, the election of judges to the Constitutional Court, amendments to the Constitution, strengthening institutions, electoral reform, as well as preparing the administration for the obligations of membership.
They believe that the German-French non-paper should be seen as an attempt to strengthen, accelerate and make enlargement policy more credible.
"According to the content of the non-paper, candidate countries are offered real rapprochement with the EU. This is best seen through the concrete initiatives that are proposed. One of them is privileged access to the European Union's single market, but based on substantial progress in the negotiations. Therefore, it is not about automatic benefits, but about gradual and deeper integration into certain sectors of the Single Market for those countries that meet the conditions," they point out.
They also propose establishing closer ties with European institutions in the daily decision-making process. This means, among other things, gradually granting observer status to candidate countries at meetings of European Union institutions, which would allow them to be involved in European policies, standards and procedures earlier.
"The most important thing is that the non-paper clearly emphasizes that full membership remains the ultimate goal. Therefore, it is important to state precisely: gradual integration is not a substitute for membership, but a useful instrument for candidate countries to more quickly feel the benefits of the European path and to make the reform process more concrete for citizens," the cabinet said.
An attempt to restore the trust and credibility of the Union
Ćerimagić says that he reads the non-paper as an admission that the process has a major problem, and the German Chancellor hinted at it by saying that 13 years without a single new enlargement is not only a failure of the candidates, but also a failure of the EU itself.
"I see the essence of the non-paper in an attempt to compensate for what has been missing for years: the trust and credibility of the Union. It seems that this was also the reason why Chancellor Merz said, as never before, that he supports Montenegro's efforts to complete the negotiation process as soon as possible," he said.
When asked whether candidate countries are being offered realistic rapprochement with the EU or a kind of "waiting room" for membership, Ćerimagić answers that one should be realistic about one thing: this is the position of the leaders of the two largest members, but all 27 decide on enlargement, by consensus.
"We'll just have to see how many of these ideas will actually be implemented," said Ćerimagić.
He believes the goal is to restore trust in a process that has lost credibility among many.
"We are faced across the region, except recently in Montenegro, with the belief, unfortunately based on bad experience, that the EU does not actually want enlargement, that the obstacles are too many and that one referendum or one parliament can destroy the efforts of an entire generation. If that is the case, then throughout the region, both well-intentioned and malicious, a logical question arises - why then undertake difficult reforms at all? I read the non-paper as an attempt to break that logic," he said.
A period of ups and downs, but also stagnation
The Office of the President states that Montenegro did not achieve these results in the European integration process overnight, nor has its European path always been linear.
"We have had ups and downs, periods of progress, but also periods of stagnation. The change of government in 2020 laid the necessary foundations for our democratic maturation, and the crucial breakthrough in 2023 gave new momentum and credibility to Montenegro's European integration process," they said.
As they state, the results of the presidential and parliamentary elections that year became a true catalyst for change, transforming EU integration into a dynamic and realistic path towards EU membership by 2028.
"If the election result had been different, Montenegro would be in a different situation today, probably with much less success in EU integration, and in that context, the Franco-German non-paper would be more important for Montenegro than it is now," the cabinet said.
Benefits for Vučić and Rama, or for everyone?
Responding to the question of whether the presidents of Serbia and Albania, Aleksandar Vučić and Edi Rama, could benefit the most from such a model, Ćerimagić said that it depends on their real intentions.
Vučić and Rama previously stated in a joint statement that they advocate accelerated integration into the Single Market and the Schengen Area of those candidate countries for membership in the European Union that meet the conditions, instead of full membership in the 27-nation bloc.
"I read their joint appearance as a gauntlet thrown in the face of the EU: as a message that enlargement will soon be over - except, perhaps, for Montenegro - and that the Union is demanding politically and economically difficult reforms and decisions from the candidates, from relations with Russia, China and, more recently, the US, to the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, while offering almost nothing in return. Hence the point that could be summarized: 'You are asking for a lot, at least offer us a single market,'" said Ćerimagić.
If, as he says, their proposal was sincere, and the non-paper is translated into EU policy, everyone wins - they, the citizens of Serbia and Albania, and the EU itself. Then they would use the power they have to reform and transform the country, close the negotiations and bring the benefits of membership in the single market to their citizens and economy, and later, after and when the treaty is ratified, they would become members.
"If the proposal was not sincere, then it will not bring them any good, because supporters of European reforms will be able to say: you even got what you asked for, and you still are not doing what is necessary to move the process forward. In the end, it would be clear who really wants what, and who is just acting and hunting in the dark," said Ćerimagić.
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