Almost a century and a half since the European powers that had not already done so recognized it as an independent state, and 85 years since the first popular uprising against the fascist occupation showed the enslaved greats of the Old Continent where the spark of freedom shines, Montenegro celebrates its Statehood Day, July 13, in a state of contradiction - between accelerated reforms and major divisions in a small society.
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If the European integration process is taken as a benchmark, the country is progressing at lightning speed on paper - the closing of the chapter is going according to plan, so the Government's idea Milojko Spajić to "cross out" all obligations by the end of the year, and enter the European Union (EU) by the end of 2028 - seems achievable.
However, if you scratch a little beneath the surface, the picture begins to change, and the deeper you "dig", the easier it is to reach conclusions that may represent a "cold shower" for at least part of the public.
This is precisely what the interlocutors of "Vijesti" warn about - certain entry into the Brussels club will not solve all the challenges the country faces. They assessed that the EU represents a good framework for success and the possibility of progress, but that its role is not to supervise how Podgorica will solve the problems that have been accumulating long before entry into that community was a reality.
The interlocutors say that it depends on Montenegrin citizens and the political and intellectual elite to what extent they will feel the benefits of EU membership, and that it is therefore necessary to carefully choose their representatives and not allow them to "play" with the substantial European funds as if they were given to them as a gift. They stated that it is important to reshape the economy by investing in fixed capital, knowledge and industries of the future, but also to create a framework for population policy - because a country without people in it serves no one.
That is why it is uncertain where Montenegro will be in 10 years - on July 13, 2036. How will the descendants of those who won victories at Vučji dol and Fundina that would bring independence, or those who, carried away by the revolutionary spirit and desire for freedom, sometimes bare-handed, stormed the Italian garrisons in Virpazar, Čevo and Košćele, cope with the ethno-federalization that lurks around the corner, party parasitism or the huge European market that could "swallow" domestic businessmen?
Who will be the ones who will realize the vision of a social welfare state, who will replace failed economic policies and the plundering of state resources with consistent service, economic recovery, and employment of the deserving, not the suitable? How will the youth exodus be stopped and a sustainable housing policy implemented, raising living standards...
While individuals, at home and abroad, weave a web with the intention of trapping Montenegro in backward ideological understandings of division along national lines, the most significant date in Montenegrin history - July 13th - shows that freedom and resistance are deeply rooted in the very being of the people here - passed down from generation to generation, nurtured in songs and stories, through legends and myths, but also examples of uncompromising struggle for the ideals of a dignified life.
“An organized group of sensible people is missing”
For a political scientist and political consultant Aleksandar Musica Three fields will determine the state of Montenegro in 10 years, and also provide an answer to what Montenegro will be like in 2050 - society, economy and foreign policy. He told "Vijesti" that the problems in these three fields are ethno-federalization, poor economic structure and a weak foreign policy that does not use its alliances enough, and at the same time is vulnerable to attacks from malignant actors from the neighborhood.
"All three problems are not something that EU membership automatically solves. Therefore, the real question is not whether Montenegro will survive in the next 10 years - it will, but what it will be like in 10 years and what it will look like. Will it be a small and proud country that will slowly become one of the better places to live in Europe, or will it be completely transformed into a poisoned society and a defective state through internal disintegration and predatory attacks from outside, which will then drift towards the middle of the 21st century with an already questionable future," the interviewee concluded.
Music says that Montenegro is still waiting for an organized group of sensible people capable of producing a Montenegrin idea for the 21st century - the content of Montenegrin state and social sense, patriotism and most importantly, and for the first time since independence - a Montenegrin political community.
"... A community in which the majority of society can find itself and feel good. Not 'multi-this-multi-that' mumbling, but an elaborate undertaking to strengthen the social fabric of Montenegro, which must produce leaders, recognize historical figures, bright moments, healthy values, relevant topics, suitable gathering points, create sustainable alliances in society across and across, and articulate realistic state goals for the 21st century that can attract the majority of citizens to that political community - with an emphasis on the generations to come, and for Montenegro with at least some Montenegrin content," he stated.
According to Musić, 10 years is the period in which something like this, if started while there is still time, can bear its first fruits. Otherwise, he claims, in 10 years there will be a state of "people and nationalities", a mathematically projected division of tribal spoils at the table where only the name of the state remains from Montenegro (if that), and advanced processes of ethno-federalization will accelerate, perhaps even beyond the point of no return.
The interlocutor points out that the EU will not solve the problem of ethno-federalization, and that anyone who does not understand this will be unpleasantly surprised, adding that Brussels cannot do that, nor is it its role.
"The EU is a good external framework and that's it. And what kind of state it will be on the inside, how much its citizens trust it and whether there is something in common and binding, depends on its human strength and vital energy," he underlined.
Joining the EU does not mean the end of the struggle
Although it will not solve internal problems, the EU represents an excellent basis for social progress. How will EU membership change Montenegro in the next 10 years? Journalist Željko Pantelić says that the scale of change depends largely on the citizens of Montenegro, political and intellectual elites, as well as the willingness of the entire society to continue the fight against corruption, organized crime, abuse of position and treating the state as a service for the realization of personal ambitions and interests.
He recalls that the experiences of Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in this century are quite different.
"Bulgaria and Romania still have major problems with corruption and insufficiently strong institutions, Croatia has made a 'U' turn since joining, with relativization and tolerance of neo-Ustasha. Slovenia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and to some extent Slovakia have, in addition to economic progress, shown that they can fight extremist impulses in their societies, sometimes with more and sometimes with less success. The Baltic republics are in the most delicate situation because they are on the front line of defense against Russian imperialism and so far they are showing encouraging resilience," he commented.
Pantelić told "Vijesti" that a positive scenario for Podgorica would be to significantly improve the standard of living and quality of life through efficient and accessible services, a digitalized and lean bureaucracy, but also through additional "Europeanization" of the country in capillary and permanent connections with the rest of the EU.
"Apart from the economic benefits through access to funds, the Single Market and EU aid programmes, the greatest benefits depend on Montenegro itself. There will be money and opportunities, the question is whether there will be people in Montenegro to take advantage of those opportunities and spend the earmarked money that will come," he points out.
Less positive predictions, Pantelić adds, warn of the danger of insufficient strengthening of institutions, ossification of the bureaucratic apparatus, inefficient and rhetorical fight against corruption and organized crime, captivity by identity issues, and frustration due to the inability to realize the maximalist ethno-nationalist goals of all five parties.
"Of course, the larger the ethnic group, the greater its frustrations will be and the more burdensome they will be for the entire society," the interviewee noted.
Turning to the industries of the future
When its entry into the EU is made official, Montenegro will become part of a market with 450 million inhabitants and a gross domestic product (GDP) of 18 trillion euros, or about 40 thousand euros per capita, explains a professor at the Faculty of Economics for "Vijesti". Maja Bacovic.
When asked what must be done for the Montenegrin economy to survive in such a market, Baćović replied that entering the EU market creates opportunities for Montenegrin businessmen who are already internationally competitive to expand their business, but also presents a challenge for those who are not, because they will face even greater competition in their business. The interviewee states that the impact on the labor market is also significant, because EU membership will provide more employment opportunities, and employers will also face competition in hiring, especially highly qualified personnel.
"The largest number of EU member states are at the forefront in the level of development of the components that make up the pillars of economic development: physical infrastructure, institutional infrastructure, innovation, education and market efficiency. International assessments of these components for Montenegro show that we are most often ranked between 60th and 70th globally, behind EU member states. This means that Montenegro also needs structural reforms and investments in fixed capital and knowledge," said Baćović.
Montenegro's GDP per capita could be 72 percent of the European average in 2036, if the necessary reforms are implemented.
Upon joining the Union, Montenegrin citizens would be able to find employment in some member states immediately, and in others after a certain number of years (transition period), without any additional bureaucratic obstacles, with equal rights as workers there.
"Vijesti" announced in early June that after Montenegro joins the EU, its citizens in certain member states could wait up to nine years for free work and equal treatment as citizens there, according to the four plus two plus three years (4+2+3) model.
Baćović said that in the EU accession process, significant institutional reforms have already been, or will be, implemented in Montenegro, explaining that investments in road infrastructure segments are announced or are being implemented, but that the importance of investments in rail, air and water transport should also be recognized.
"Add to this the necessity of improving informal institutions, especially the value system and level of professionalization, because without meritocracy in the labor market, not only is it not possible to increase work efficiency in both the private and public sectors, but it is also significantly more difficult to encourage investments in human capital, which are imperative in the 21st century," she said.
Aleksandar Musić notes that Montenegro has several decades of failed economic policies behind it, stating that unlike Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, whose elites, after the implosion of communism, fought their way to prosperity with "brave and intelligent market policies", and these countries now look down on most of the countries of the former Yugoslavia (and it used to be the other way around), in Montenegro, bankrupt socialism was inherited by transitional plunder and an extractive economy of extractive institutions.
"... And the lost generation, and then, in the period from August 30, 2020, the promise of reforms, caricatures, and the repetition of what was supposedly fought against," he said.
Montenegro could have 638.649 inhabitants by 2036, according to a 2014 Monstat study.
Musić assessed that without a radical strengthening of the private sector, an accelerated shift towards industries of the future and jobs with the highest added value (jobs with the highest salaries), rationalization of public enterprises, reduction of party parasitism and budget vampirism, Montenegro will remain a roulette economy threatened by a toxic cocktail of further emigration of young people and mass immigration of "foreign poor" for the worst jobs.
He stated that the EU will not solve the problem on the economic front either, explaining that it will temporarily help in some areas (by injecting European funds, for example into agriculture and infrastructure), and temporarily hinder in others (additional emigration after joining the EU, as experienced by all member states).
"Although everyone is already excited about the mention of the European piggy bank, it will not make Montenegro a rich country in the long term; only an economy with a high share of jobs with the highest added value can make it rich. Agriculture and tourism can and should be a useful part of the economic equation, but they are not enough on their own," the interlocutor underlined.
Possible to accelerate economic growth
Asked what should be done to improve the Montenegrin economy in the next 10 years, Maja Baćović responded that, in short, the focus should be on creating conditions for the growth of domestic and foreign investments in productive activities, with efforts to diversify production and reduce dependence on tourism and imports, increasing the level of human capital through improving the quality of the education system and strengthening the concept of lifelong learning, improving the overall infrastructure (transport, utilities, energy, water supply), strengthening formal and informal institutions, and encouraging innovative activities by recognizing, among other things, the advantages of the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) tools.
She pointed out that a recent survey on the attitudes of employees in the Montenegrin public sector regarding the introduction of AI in the workplace, conducted on a sample of over 800 respondents, showed that the use of artificial intelligence in the Montenegrin public sector is no longer a marginal phenomenon, but an existing work practice.
"... And that employees who use AI tools most often perceive artificial intelligence as a tool that saves time, reduces the amount of manual work, speeds up the performance of tasks and helps in the daily organization of work. However, AI tools are still used at a basic level, so it is necessary to increase the level of knowledge required for both the creation and use of AI tools," added Baćović.
The country's birth rate is very low, and demographic challenges are further exacerbated by the continuous emigration of the population that has lasted for more than a century, especially of young and working-age people. As a result of these trends, Montenegro is also facing a chronic shortage of labor force," says Dragana Otašević
The interlocutor noted that accelerating economic growth is important for convergence towards the EU, explaining that, if the Montenegrin economy continued to grow at the growth rates achieved on average in the previous twenty-year period (2,8 percent per year), GDP per capita (in current prices) would be 36,7 percent of the EU average in 2036, assuming that the EU economy continues to grow at an average annual rate of 1,3 percent.
Baćović stated that GDP per capita (PPP), adjusted to current purchasing power parity, would increase from the current 54 percent to 63,5 percent of the EU average.
"If structural reforms were implemented and the investment cycle intensified, not only in terms of state investments in infrastructure, but primarily through the growth of private investments in productive activities, and the average real growth rate consequently increased to a minimum of four percent per year, GDP per capita, expressed in purchasing power parity, would reach 72 percent of the European average in 2036," she emphasized.
The professor at the Faculty of Economics recalled that the economic reform program in Montenegro for the period 2026-2028 projected growth rates of around three percent, and that the projections of the International Monetary Fund, which predicts an average GDP growth rate of three percent per year in the next five-year period, are similar.
Baćović points out that, if the weaknesses of the Montenegrin economy are realistically viewed, and work on strengthening it begins without delay, "there is no reason why economic growth should not accelerate."
"The potential of the Montenegrin economy and the expected membership in the EU certainly leave room for such a scenario," the interviewee noted.
Low birth rate, constant emigration
But it is difficult to improve the economy if the workforce is aging and those who should replace them are moving to other countries.
Dragana Otašević from the Center for Migration Policy and Multiculturalism, told "Vijesti" that Europe, and therefore Montenegro, is facing a pronounced process of population aging. She stated that the median age of the EU population is around 44,7 years, while in Montenegro it is around 40,4 years.
"At the same time, the birth rate in our country is very low, and demographic challenges are further deepened by the continuous emigration of the population that has lasted for more than a century, especially of young and working-age people. As a result of these trends, Montenegro is also facing a chronic labor shortage," she pointed out.
Otašević noted that Montenegro is facing a serious demographic challenge characterized by low fertility, falling birth rates, aging population and emigration, adding that the essence of the problem is not only in the change in the age structure, but in the fact that Montenegro is gradually losing its demographic potential due to a long-term low birth rate and continuous emigration, especially of young and working-age people.
"And population, along with territory and sovereign power, is one of the three basic elements of the existence of any state. Therefore, the demographic issue is not just a question of population size, but a question of the state's ability to ensure long-term social, economic and developmental continuity. Without people who live, work, create families and build the future of the country, it is difficult to talk about its long-term sustainability," the interviewee assessed.
In the 2014 Monstat study "Projection of the Population of Montenegro until 2060", it is stated that Montenegro in 2036, according to the medium fertility variant, could have 638.649 inhabitants.
She underlined that it is therefore necessary to create and consistently implement a comprehensive and long-term demographic policy that will increase fertility and encourage birth rates, reduce emigration, facilitate the return of the diaspora, and create conditions for young people to remain in the country.
According to her, such a policy must include strong support for families with children, improving reproductive health and healthcare, housing and economic security, quality education and better employment opportunities, especially by creating conditions for young, educated and professional people to build their knowledge, potential and careers in Montenegro.
Otašević adds that demographic policy must also include responsible migration management - through population retention, encouraging the return of Montenegrin citizens and their descendants from the diaspora, but also creating a responsible immigration policy that would respond to the shortage of labor in areas where it is needed.
"What is positive is that Montenegro already has a Demographic Council established and is working on the development of a Demographic Development Strategy. However, I believe that the Law on Demographic Renewal should have been adopted beforehand, which would represent the overarching legal framework for the long-term regulation of this area...", the interviewee emphasized.
She said that only through a strategic, cross-sectoral and long-term approach is it possible to mitigate negative demographic trends and create conditions for the sustainable development of Montenegro in the next decade.
In Montenegro, natural population growth was negative for the first time since World War II in 2020. This trend, caused, among other things, by the coronavirus epidemic, continued for the next two years, and from 2023 onwards, natural population growth has been slightly positive again.
How to prevent Montenegrin Farage
Željko Pantelić pointed out that for decades, if not centuries, the best and brightest people have been leaving Montenegro for Serbia or further abroad. He states that by joining the EU, Montenegro will, for the first time in history, be a more attractive and better place to live, with many more and greater opportunities to realize life's goals.
The interlocutor assessed that Podgorica should already be thinking about how to attract as many talented and ambitious young people as possible from the former Yugoslavia, adding that the biggest problem in the EU is human resources.
"Even in the most developed and richest countries, there is a lack of highly qualified personnel, on the one hand, and on the other, those who are engaged in the simplest physical work or caring for the elderly. Montenegro is a small country and should seize the opportunity and create an efficient system for selecting the profiles and personnel it needs for its development," he underlined.
Pantelić claims that Podgorica's great advantage is that it can count on a base of 15 million people who speak almost the same language and can very quickly integrate into Montenegrin society, emphasizing that this would act preventively to create conditions for Montenegro to very quickly gain extremist, xenophobic and neo-fascist parties that base their policies solely on the fight against immigrants.
"In other words, if we want to avoid Montenegrin versions Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, Alice Weidel, Santiago Abascal, Matteo Salvini, Heinz Christian Strache i Gerta Wildersa"It is necessary to start intelligently managing immigration policy now. The greatest wealth of every country is its people, which is why Montenegro should choose the best, that is, to manage immigration processes, and not have migration processes manage it and decide who will be in power," he said.
A demographic renewal program is needed
What can be realistically expected to be done in terms of demographics in the next ten years? Dragana Otašević says that she believes that Montenegro will manage to adopt and implement the Demographic Development Strategy in that period, which would provide it with a long-term framework for conducting population policy for the first time.
"I hope that after adopting the strategy, the state will create and implement a national demographic renewal program, which will systematically work to create conditions for long-term demographic recovery," she added.
She also said that she expects the establishment of an Office for Returnees within the Ministry of Diaspora, whose establishment is already foreseen by the Law on Cooperation of Montenegro with the Diaspora. According to her, such an office could play an important role in encouraging the return of Montenegrin citizens and their descendants, providing institutional support in the reintegration process, and strengthening ties between the state and the diaspora.
"The return of diaspora members of different generations could greatly contribute to Montenegro's demographic recovery, but also bring new knowledge, experience and stronger international ties. However, the success of these measures will depend on their consistent implementation and on whether demographic policy will truly become one of the most important strategic priorities of the state," said Otašević.
The interviewee emphasized that if unfavorable demographic trends are not mitigated in the next decade, the consequences will not only be statistical, but will also have a long-term impact on the social and economic development of the country, the labor market, and Montenegro's ability to respond to contemporary development challenges.
Foreign policy - bureaucratic phrases and foreign representatives
Aleksandar Music says that, when looking at Montenegro's foreign policy, it is difficult not to notice that a small mountainous state, a drop in the ocean of great powers, such as Montenegro was at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries - then navigated between the Venetians, Ottomans, Russians, Austrians, and French, and that today foreign policy has been reduced to five to 10 bureaucratic phrases that its officials endlessly repeat and to foreign representatives who solve its internal crises.
Music assessed that Montenegro needs to make maximum use of its alliances.
"For example, if the strategic partner is the United States of America, then the strength of that partnership must be visible in the areas of the military, police, education, economic exchange, and scholarships that Montenegro enjoys from its strategic partner. And it is up to the country's leadership to win these benefits and increase them year after year," he explained.
The interlocutor said that Podgorica also needs "a clear guard to defend the dignity of the state", stating that, if aggression against Montenegro coming from the regime in a neighboring country is confirmed again and again, alluding to the rule of Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia, then it is the duty of Montenegrin foreign policy to react, and not remain miserably silent.
"... And it must be accompanied by the skill of domestic politics - knowing how to keep a part of Montenegrin citizens exposed to the influence of that regime with Montenegro, and not alienate them and hand them over to further manipulation," concluded Music.
He says that all of this will become important in the next 10 years, whether the dominant European policy of appeasement or mild reaction to that regime continues, or if a new government rises that, "likely," will not be too friendly to Montenegro.
"In 10 years, the situation could be even worse," warns Music.
Pantelić: Citizens and politicians are equally responsible for EU benefits
When asked how much Montenegrin politicians will determine how much citizens will feel the benefits of EU membership, Željko Pantelić replied that, if the aphorism that people elect leaders who most resemble them is true, then both citizens and the politicians they elect are equally responsible for the benefits.
"It is worth remembering that the majority of money coming from the EU is project-related and that the spending of EU money is under increasing control of the competent EU institutions. This explains why the percentage of withdrawals from EU funds is much higher in countries where there is less corruption and abuse of power," he says.
Pantelić claims that Greece is the best example of how a corrupt and irresponsible political elite, which for years has falsified budgets and projects, violated public procurement rules and spent money from EU funds for no purpose, has brought the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
"Fortunately for the Greeks, the EU saved them, but they had to pay an extremely high price about ten years ago," the interviewee emphasizes.
Musić: Montenegro today is neither free nor brave enough
Aleksandar Music stated that July 13th is another name for freedom and courage, and in his opinion, Montenegro today is neither free enough nor brave enough.
"He is afraid of party leaders, resentment towards priests who deal with politics (and not Christianity), the regime from a neighboring country, blackmail in the workplace, speaking out, foreign bureaucrats...", he claimed.
Music said that a true homage to July 13th would be a return to the fundamental values of July 13th - both those from the era of Prince Nikola and those from the era of Ljubo Čupić - a return to freedom and courage in all fields of activity.
"And that also means working on yourself, rejecting what makes you worse and less worthy of the generations you inherited," he said.
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