If Iceland votes in a referendum at the end of the month to restart membership negotiations with the EU, the country and Montenegro could become members of the Union at the same time, and Brussels is, say European officials and diplomats, open to the idea of the two countries joining the EU "as a package".
EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told the Brussels-based portal Politiko that Iceland is a "special case" because it is a member of the European Economic Area and Schengen, predicting that negotiations could only last "a year or two" if a vote is held on August 29 to restart negotiations.
A senior European Commission official involved in enlargement confirmed on condition of anonymity that Iceland would quickly catch up with Montenegro, which has closed more than half of the 33 negotiation chapters and wants to join the EU in 2028.
Another Commission official said there was a strong possibility of a Montenegro-Iceland package, where member states would ratify both countries' membership. He added that Iceland is a rich country and would be a net contributor to the EU budget, effectively paying for the membership of Montenegro, which would be among the bloc's poorest members.
The Brussels portal recalls the joint accession of Spain and Portugal to the EU in 1986 and Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, with the member states then ratifying a single accession treaty. In accordance with a single treaty, ten countries also joined the EU in 2004.
Montenegrin Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorčević told Politiko that Podgorica would be happy to link its candidacy with Reykjavik, while Icelandic Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnardtir said that a joint accession was "absolutely" possible.
One diplomat said that joint entry into membership was the "best case scenario" and another said that unification could help win over France, which could have a far-right president next year who opposes EU enlargement.
"A Montenegro-Iceland package would strengthen both candidacies," the diplomat told Politiko.
At the same time, Kos said the EU was ready to be "creative" to bring Iceland into the EU and avoid another breakdown in negotiations. "Some of Iceland's specificities, especially in fisheries and agriculture, are so unique that they must be taken into account," she said, adding that she was confident that the EU would find creative solutions that respect both sides.
The latest polls show that Icelanders are divided over reopening negotiations with the EU that Reykjavik froze in 2013 partly due to a dispute with Brussels over fishing rights.
Once negotiations are concluded, if any, Iceland will have to hold another referendum on EU membership.
Gunnarsdottir, who belongs to a pro-EU party, told Politico that Iceland is in a much better position today than in 2009 to negotiate an agreement that protects fisheries, agriculture and natural resources.
She also rejected criticism from those who are scaring Icelanders with EU membership and said she believes citizens will not miss the great opportunity being presented to them.
Among the opponents of EU membership is former President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson, who believes that the Icelandic government would be lost in the bureaucratic "jungle" of the Union if it joined it.
Grimsson, who was president for a record 20 years (1996-2016), said that Iceland, with a population of around 400.000, would replace Malta, with 590.000, and become the smallest EU member state, and that a labor shortage would arise in negotiations with Brussels.
According to him, with only 600-700 officials in key ministries, it would be almost impossible for Iceland's voice to be heard in the EU.
"A huge number, tens of thousands of bureaucrats in Brussels... an army of lobbyists... it would be a bureaucratic jungle," Grimson said.
The head of Iceland's largest opposition party, Gudrun Harfsteinsdottir, agrees that new negotiations with the EU would "use up" most of Iceland's already meager civil service.
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