New Study: World Breaks Critical Climate Thresholds, Threats to Human and Planetary Health

In a new study published in the journal Nature, dozens of scientists report that the world has already breached critical climate thresholds, leaving less safe, habitable space for life on Earth.

Experts point to threats to the health of people and the planet, and call on governments, companies and policy makers to take the crisis more seriously, the world media write.

Disturbing evidence

A report by a group of scientists gathered in the Earth Commission presents disturbing evidence that the planet is facing growing crises of water availability, nutrient load, ecosystem maintenance and aerosol pollution, The Guardian points out.

The benchmarks are based on a synthesis of previous studies by universities and United Nations (UN) scientific groups, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, the Guardian wrote, stressing that the new study shows that the situation is dire. in almost all categories.

Protecting the planet is inseparable from community success

Researchers have traditionally looked at the effects of climate change or the loss of biodiversity on the planet itself, but the study by a group of Earth Commission scientists marks an attempt by experts to identify the thresholds beyond which humans will suffer significant damage, according to The Financial Times.

The research identified eight Earth system thresholds that include climate, biodiversity, water, natural ecosystems, land use, and the effect of fertilizers and aerosols.

Human activities are said to have pushed these seven thresholds beyond a "safe and just boundary" into risk zones.

According to the research, between 50 percent and 60 percent of the land should have been covered by mostly intact ecosystems, a level that has already been breached. It was also concluded that the use of nitrogen as a fertilizer needs to be halved to reduce excessive plant growth and algal blooms in surface waters and to reduce emissions of ammonia and nitrogen oxides.

The so-called Earth system consists of many interdependent processes that keep the planet stable, but when disturbances change its habitability, scientists claim and point out that the various boundaries of the Earth systems that are listed in the research are "interrelated".

This, the London paper points out, means that exceeding the safe limit for one could have an indirect effect on others.

Study co-author and Australian National University professor Xuemei Bai says that in "calculating human needs and impacts," the study "shows how protecting the planet is inseparable from community, social and economic success."

Safe climatic threshold

For years, the world has focused on a key climate change threshold: limiting global warming to 1,5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. However, even at that threshold - which could begin to be breached in the next five years - millions of people will still face "significant harm", including death, displacement and food and water shortages, CNN points out, pointing to a new Commission on Climate Change report. Earth.

At 1,5 degrees Celsius, the authors found that more than 200 million people could still be exposed to unprecedented heat, and more than 500 million people would be exposed to long-term sea-level rise.

They pointed out that the key climate threshold to which countries committed themselves in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the one that would ensure a "safe and just" world, should have been one degree Celsius.

However, the average temperature of planet Earth has already risen by about 1,2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, which has already caused catastrophic and deadly climate and weather changes, including more extreme heat waves, floods and wildfires that have changed the environment.

Therefore, scientists are urging governments, companies and policymakers to take the crisis more seriously as critical climate thresholds have been breached leaving less safe, habitable space for life on Earth.

Study co-author and environmental researcher at the University of Amsterdam Joita Gupta says that climate science has previously looked at the conditions needed to maintain the stability of the planet, but has excluded justice as a key component.

"We argue that there is no safe planet without justice," Gupta said, emphasizing that incorporating justice into the boundaries of the Earth system reduces significant harm to communities and individuals.

She says the intention of their work was to try "to show that there is already a lot of damage (from warming) at one degree (Celsius) and that it is fairer than the 1,5 degree target".

"We want to make sure that states take this as seriously as possible," Gupta said.

A just future for humanity

The Earth Commission and 51 authors of the new study offered the results of their research in the hope that governments and companies will develop tools to align their practices with scientifically established thresholds for a safe and just future for humanity, according to Bloomberg.

"The ultimate definition of justice today is the right of every human being, especially future generations, to have a stable planet – to be born on a planet that is at least as habitable as the planet on which his or her parents were born," co-author Judge Rockstrom said.

The authors also call for international compensation to poorer countries for "losses and damages" suffered during extreme weather events, as agreed at last year's UN climate talks.

The scale of efforts required to solve these challenges is unprecedented, Bloomberg writes, noting that energy, food, cities and other sectors will require the initiation of new economic and technological policies. The authors state that a "leap in our understanding of how justice, economics, technology and global cooperation can be advanced in the service of a secure and just future" is necessary.

Focusing on the human toll of climate change helps make the new analysis more specific than previous similar research, said Kim Cobb, director of Brown University's Institute for Environment and Society, who was not involved in the study.

She said that there is no longer any ambiguity about the disproportionate impacts of climate change on the most vulnerable and that it is "something that should guide us in making decisions today."