The Government of Montenegro should consult meteorologists during the construction of the highway, that is, the competent authority for hydrometeorological affairs, which is obliged to prepare elaborate base studies that will be an integral part of spatial planning documentation.
If it happens that someone tries to circumvent this, those documents will be audited, where they will be destroyed, said Branko Micev, head of the Center for Weather Analysis and Forecasting at the Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro, in an interview with "Vijesti".
"When doing infrastructural facilities, meteorology is involved in two aspects. You have to protect the facility from extreme weather conditions, that it should not be 'vulnerable' and exposed to extreme weather conditions. This is called dimensioning, strengthening the facility against extreme weather conditions "People who bring spatial planning and project documentation must involve climate characteristics in their project," Micev points out.
In order for someone, he explains, to invest large amounts of money in the construction of ponds, fruit plantations, or if he wants to build facilities, "he must provide meteorological bases in order to see what the vulnerability is, and what awaits him in that area 365 days, i.e. what is danger of being destroyed or damaged”.
It is allowed to build with a risk of 5 percent
"In meteorology, this is called calculated risk, i.e. the probability that an extreme meteorological event will occur during the exploitation of the facility. The calculated risk is based on a probability of 95 percent. We make meteorological assessments for a specific location with a 95 percent probability that a certain event will not occur phenomenon, and if it happens with a probability of five percent that it will destroy the building, then it is built with that risk and it is allowed in that percentage," says Micev.
"One cannot build a highway without taking extreme meteorological parameters into account, it happened in Turkey when the rain washed away the highway, which is unimaginable"
He notes that the risk is calculated during the construction of bridges, repeaters or highways, which, as he explains, "do not have an exploitation period of three, but 100 years".
"For the Bar-Boljari highway, as far as I know, a spatial plan has now been prepared that does not require computational risk, but only climatic conditions. However, a detailed plan requires it.
In the project documentation, there must be a load when the highway, bridge or tunnel is laid out and there must be the effect of extreme meteorological parameters, extreme rain that will occur once in a hundred years.
One cannot build a highway without taking into account extreme meteorological parameters. So it happened in Turkey that the rain washed away the highway, which is unimaginable," Micev warns.
We need two weather radars
Speaking about the technical capabilities of Montenegro for weather forecasting, Micev says that one of the biggest shortcomings of our country in the field of meteorology is the meteorological radar, which costs around three million euros.
"We have a lack of technique, but on the other hand, we complement that lack with quality"
He also explains that only one would not be enough for Montenegro, considering that "we have land and a coast", so, Micev believes, at least two would be necessary.
"Meteorology was born for the needs of safety and security, and it was not born to determine whether we will wear an umbrella or a sweater. We work to provide a quality short-term forecast, four to six days, because we are not a regional, but a national center.
We take data according to the official line from the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting, which is based in London. That center makes weather forecasts for the entire northern hemisphere and these are global models.
We have developed numerical models for our system in Montenegro. We have three numerical models, which are excellent for forecasting and weather analysis.
Although we have a lack of technique, on the other hand, we make up for that lack with quality," says Micev. He pointed out that numerical models absolutely provide a sufficient level of weather forecast quality from the aspect of safety and security information.
Extreme situations
Micev says that there is no possibility of water forecasting in Montenegro today, which must be provided in the future.
"When we have that, we will be able to say on objective grounds that the flood wave will reach a certain height. We cannot say that now.
From the aspect of safety, we must state the fact that in the last 20 years the whole world, including the area of Montenegro, has not been spared from extreme meteorological processes, both floods and droughts. Human lives are at risk. The existing technique is not able to be applied even in those extreme situations," says Micev.
They warned the authorities about the danger of flooding
Referring to the latest floods in Montenegro, Micev said that on January 4, HMZCG recognized the character of the meteorological situation, which will take on an alarming character.
"I sent the warning on the 6th of November, and already on the XNUMXth the rains start"
"We sent a warning to the emergency department that day, and the floods occurred on January 11," Micev explained.
As for the November floods, the situation, he says, was even more successful for the meteorological service, which informed the Department for Emergency Situations at midnight on November 6 that a period of heavy rains would follow.
"I sent the warning on November 6, and already on the eighth the rains started. When the rains started, the level of the Morača rose in 48 hours by ten meters in Podgorica. This is unprecedented. The inflow of the Morača every second brought 1.400 tons of water, which flowed into Skadarsko lake", says Micev.
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