I've heard stories, but no one professionally explained to me why that area is at a greater risk of earthquakes than some others, nor are there any serious debates on those topics. When I was buying an apartment, no one warned me. Now I don't feel very safe, he says Center for Investigative Journalism of Montenegro (CIN-CG) a woman who lives in one of the buildings on the bank of Morača (identity known to the editorial staff).
In the luxurious residential complexes in this part of Podgorica, from where there is a view of the river and the Milenijum bridge, a square meter currently costs over 2.000 euros.
Some of the buildings are above the rocks that rise above the river, so experts warn that before buying apartments, you should check whether the builders have done all the necessary seismic assessments and analyses.
Before the expansion of construction in recent decades, there were no residential buildings in the city center above the Morača canyon, and rare buildings, such as the hotel "Pogorica" or the old government building, were built carefully, with a small number of floors and with respect to all static measures.
The Morača coast is not the only area where the expansion of construction occurred during the transition period.
In the Analysis of the current state of organization, arrangement and use of space, which the Ministry of Ecology, Spatial Planning and Urbanism did for the needs of the Spatial Plan of Montenegro until 2040, it is warned that there are no prescribed specific parameters for aseismic design, as well as other conditions for protection from the earthquake.
Weak state control
Instead of prescribed parameters, the current Law on Spatial Planning and Building Construction foresees only the need, and not the obligation, of aseismic design. Simply put, whether valid parameters for earthquake protection will be respected during the construction of a building depends on the conscience of the investor, not on the laws and control of state authorities.
The relevant Ministry points to legal shortcomings and says that "investors cannot be expected to approach the very professional and demanding preparation of maps with seismic parameters". They also state that the earlier solutions were better and that it is necessary to specify the strict rules of aseismic design through legal changes.
"Some of the guidelines given in the chapter Reducing Seismic Risk within the Concept of the Spatial Plan of Montenegro until 2040 refer to strengthening the capacities of national seismological services, defining geotechnically potentially unstable environments whose use in the process of spatial planning should be limited or avoided, prescribing stricter conditions and requirements for the reduction of seismic risk in the construction and construction control of buildings, the application of experiences from previous earthquakes...", among other things, the Ministry of Ecology, Spatial Planning and Urbanism for CIN-CG states.
Civil Engineer Mentor Llunji for CIN-CG, he says that investors are actually the main designers and that architects have a narrow scope of action, and few people think about the construction of buildings.
"Fast construction, little control and more than mediocre architecture. Apartment builders set construction standards, and it is in their interest to build as cheaply as possible. This also implies the cheapest engineering service", explains Llunji.
According to him, most buildings in Montenegro are safe if an earthquake similar to the one in 1979 were to happen again.
"But that doesn't mean anything since 'most' means at best 95 percent of the facilities. Bearing in mind that it is realistic to expect that, for example, five percent of buildings are not built according to strict requirements, this means in numbers between seven and 10 thousand unsafe buildings. Then the picture of security is much clearer", emphasizes Llunji.
Spatial planner Svetlana Jovanovic, which is working on the development of the Spatial Plan of Montenegro until 2040, points out that the damage caused by earthquakes depends to a large extent on the layout of residential areas, social facilities and infrastructure in the area.
"The purpose and organization of the space must be in accordance with the natural environment and the present seismic hazard in the territory of Montenegro, especially in the coastal region, the area of Podgorica, Danilovgrad, Cetinje, Nikšić and Beran. However, the whole of Montenegro is seismically sensitive. The problem is that the spatial distribution of the population and material goods is not in accordance with the level of risk, so the most densely populated area is precisely the one with the most pronounced seismic hazard", warns Jovanović.
As he explains, the problem is also densely built residential zones, without enough free and green areas and alternative access roads, with oversized parameters for construction.
Illegal objects are a special problem
In the publication Assessment of the risk of disasters in Montenegro from 2021, the concept of a seismic risk map is explained, which clearly separates the basic zones of seismic hazard in our country. 56,6 percent of the population lives in the territory with significant seismic intensity, and the municipalities of Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, Ulcinj, Bar, Kotor, Podgorica and Cetinje are particularly at risk.
In these cities, devastating earthquakes are possible, which demolish weakly built houses. It is also possible for the ground to crack, for cracks, landslides and landslides to occur. An earthquake of this magnitude hit Turkey and Syria in February of this year and claimed, according to UNICEF, more than fifty thousand lives, while millions were displaced. The material damages that occurred on that occasion are measured in billions of euros. The consequences could have been much milder if investors had paid more attention to earthquake protection and if regulations had been stricter.
According to data from the analysis of the Disaster Risk Assessment of Montenegro from 2021, as many as 40 percent of educational institutions in Montenegro do not have a construction permit, and almost a third of the facilities do not have a building project. About 20 percent of these buildings are built on terrain that is at potential risk of earthquakes.
Apart from buildings that have all the prescribed permits, the ones that were built illegally are an even bigger problem - because they passed without any control. There are about 100 thousand of them in Montenegro.
Often entire settlements are built without planning documentation. In Podgorica, which is considered an extremely dangerous area, there are thousands of illegal buildings in the neighborhoods of Malo brdo, Dajbabska gora, Kakaricka gora...
The houses were built without order and the necessary distance between residential buildings. Building styles and storeys are diverse, which contributes to the chaotic landscape, and no one knows how much attention was paid to seismic and statics.
In 2018, the Government of Montenegro launched an action to legalize buildings, but the process is at the beginning even after five years. The key reason is that there is no General Regulation Plan (GRP) yet. According to data from the Ministry of Ecology, Spatial Planning and Urbanism, out of over 56 thousand requests for legalization, slightly less than three thousand were legalized until last year.
Standards improved, but applied selectively
The problem lies, experts interviewed by CIN-CG agree, not only in the application of regulations and controls, but also in the vagueness and flexibility of certain procedures. The standards in the field of seismic protection are much better than before, but, our interlocutors warn, they are applied selectively.
Spatial planner Svetlana Jovanović emphasizes that in Montenegro today there is considerable knowledge about earthquakes and how to ensure a sufficient level of resistance in the field of planning and design.
"Standards in the field of design have progressed, but the issue is consistent application and respect for the adopted standards," Jovanović points out.
The first problem, he says, is the planning of construction in areas that are not suitable for construction, such as zones of inappropriate slope, zones of landslides and erosion, areas of high groundwater level, planning of roads on fault lines, planning with oversized parameters inappropriate for conditions of pronounced seismic hazard and the like.
Examples of bad practice most visible in Budva
Examples of bad practice are particularly visible in Budva. Although it has been pointed out for years, the construction is not slowing down. Budva is surrounded by buildings on almost all sides, and sometimes by entire settlements built on the cliffs and edges of the surrounding hills.
One such building, a multi-storey building, is located on a sharp curve at the entrance from the direction of Cetinje, and the investor is a Turkish citizen. Mehmet Jašar Joškun. Joskun is accused in Turkey of illegally building a 13-story building in Hatay, without complying with seismic regulations, in which hundreds of people died, because it collapsed like a house of cards in an earthquake at the beginning of this year. Buildings in the immediate vicinity, which were built conscientiously, survived with minor damage.
Immediately after the earthquake, Joskun was arrested at the Istanbul airport, before boarding a flight to Montenegro.
The engineer who was in charge of auditing and supervision Aleksandra Vučković Otašević earlier, she told RTCG that during the construction of the building in Budva, everything was done in accordance with the procedure and that Džoškun's company obtained everything that was needed - urban planning and technical conditions, consent of the city architect, and the like.
On the Montenegrin coast, they should not be afraid only because of Turkish investors with problematic experiences. Thus, with the expansion of construction in Budva - Spas hill has been completely urbanized, although experts have warned that it is a fragile area, which is susceptible to erosion. Now the hill towards Jaz, on its steep sides, is full of high-rise buildings with infrastructure whose safety is questionable. And that's just one example.
Jovanović points out that it is necessary to check and harmonize planning documentation on a detailed level. This would include control of project development, building permits that would guarantee safety at the project level, as well as technical acceptance.
There were problems during the execution of works even before the 1979 earthquake.
Retired architect Andrija Markuš he agrees with that.
"The regulations are not the problem, but how well the designers respect them, how privileged they are and how well the building is executed," he says.
The problem arose, he claims, because of the privileges of the large construction business. The institutions that should control that business are completely marginalized.
He points out that there have been problems before during the execution of works. As an illustrative example, he cites three schools that he designed in three different cities, before the earthquake that hit Montenegro in April 1979.
"The three schools were built according to the same architectural project in three different seismic zones and each had a different degree of seismic protection. The weakest level was in Nikšić, slightly higher in Podgorica, and the highest in Bar, because it is the most seismically risky area". Buildings in Podgorica and Nikšić did not feel the earthquake, and the school in Bar was destroyed. My assumption is that standards were not respected in Bar during the execution of the works, even though the project was well calculated", emphasizes Markuš.
Llunji explains that earlier the number of buildings was limited and that they were mostly built by the state, so attention was also greater.
"The space is now simply invaded, which leads to disorganization, urban unrest and insecurity. The standards are written by earthquakes - after each one, the norms become stricter", he emphasizes.
Retired university professor dr Bozidar Pavićević explains that the earthquake in Skopje in 1963 led to changes and improvements in regulations throughout the SFRY, and that the earthquake in 1979 influenced the changes even more.
"After the 1979 earthquake, the concept of risk and activities that should be undertaken in order to reduce the negative consequences for the population, economy and society were introduced to SFRY for the first time. There is a particularly significant vulnerability and concentration of buildings in an area," this civil engineer points out.
He devoted his entire working life to researching seismic risk and notes that in our country, serious research into the vulnerability of buildings has been absent, which is why we have, as he says, a "sunturn in construction".
Mentor Llunji also claims that as time passes between two earthquakes, the standards are being applied more loosely.
"After the 1979 earthquake, there was progress in aseismic design standards. Thus, in 1981, an advanced Rulebook on aseismic construction was adopted for that time, which was applied until this year, when the European standard for structures (Eurocode) was introduced.
Eurocode, Llunji points out, is more progressive, but also more complex, which will further complicate the application. Engineers still use the old design philosophy. The transition to new norms is painful for many who are used to the old system. Thus, new standards are adapted and not fully applied, which is very dangerous and can result in serious failures.
The law allowed one company to supervise hundreds of buildings at the same time
When it comes to regulations, the main cause of bad construction in Montenegro is the Law on Planning and Construction from 2017, which Llunji was also a critic of, because, as he himself says, it was clear where it was leading.
The law on planning and construction that was passed at that time centralized the field of planning and construction. The law also unified the planning and construction of buildings, legalization and expropriation, the engineering chamber and the granting of licenses... All these areas were previously regulated by different legal acts. Warnings that the Law is too cumbersome and does not treat any of these areas well enough were in vain.
"Since 2017, when the Law was passed, there has been no real supervision and audit for about 70 percent of newly built buildings. More precisely: there was supervision, but only on paper. And that's because of monopoly in the most banal and brutal sense, since the law allowed one company to supervise hundreds of facilities in Montenegro at the same time. There were even cases where individual designers literally controlled the project themselves. At best, supervising engineers visited construction sites every 10-15 days. You can guess for yourself what kind of control it was," explains Llunji.
Llunji also cites the example that a company that had four experienced engineers, who together have more than 100 years of experience, was prevented by the 2017 Law from being involved in larger projects, but from supervising and auditing the construction of only family houses up to 300 square meters.
"So, it's about people who designed bridges, controlled the construction of sports halls... In the last six years, that experience has simply been captured", points out Llunji and adds that to repair the damage caused to the profession, not only a good new law is needed, but and time.
According to this expert, the problem is that the design requirements are almost the same for all parts of the country. In the north, buildings are safer due to a slightly lower seismic risk compared to the coast. But much more is being built on the coast, on all possible terrains and without stricter regulations and controls, so the overall seismic risk is much higher there.
Not much can be done to improve the protection of existing facilities
Spatial planners should pay attention to zones where construction is questionable, on terrain prone to landslides, sandy and marshy soil. This should be taken into account during the construction of new buildings, as well as the legalization of old ones.
"Buildings should be planned and built with the assumption that they will probably suffer a stronger earthquake. In order to be safe in their homes, schools, health facilities, workplaces, awareness and responsibility at the professional and institutional level is necessary. That's the only way we'll have a 'safe roof over our heads,'" says spatial planner Jovanović.
She also points out that additional infrastructure should be provided in urban areas, especially access roads for easier organization and evacuation of the population in the event of a potential earthquake.
Pavićević states that experiences from recent earthquakes indicate the need to check the seismic safety of existing building structures, which were either designed according to older regulations or built at a time when they did not exist. Those analyses, he emphasizes, are needed in order to assess the resilience of existing facilities.
In an earthquake of seven degrees on the Richter scale in 1979, 101 people died in Montenegro and many buildings were destroyed. It was especially difficult on the coast. 250 settlements were destroyed. 53 health and 240 school facilities were damaged, as well as 570 social and child welfare facilities. Cultural and historical monuments suffered the most. About 350 kilometers of main roads and 200 kilometers of regional roads were damaged. There were specific damages to the soil - liquefaction (the soil loses its solidity and becomes liquid), landslides and landslides.
Lamb Vladimir Mitrovic he remembers 1979 and the devastating earthquake.
"It was a wonderful April morning. Around seven in the morning, I was on the train, at the exit of the Sozina tunnel, which was heading towards Titograd. Suddenly the earth went crazy, everything trembled. The train stopped and began to rock, right and left. The canals opened on the embankments along the railway... People screamed, children cried, some jumped out of the train. I was holding the hand of my minor son," he recalls.
"Life stopped that day and today I mourn for my fellow citizens and my Bar. It never happened anywhere else," says Mitrović.
What would happen if 1979 happened again today, wonders this witness to one of the biggest natural disasters in Montenegro. How many buildings built overnight, without supervision and without regulations, would remain, what would happen to their tenants.
Haiti and Japan: Two contrasting experiences
How important it is to comply with advanced building regulations is best demonstrated by the consequences of two powerful earthquakes that occurred in two countries - Haiti and Japan - just one year apart.
The earthquake in Haiti, measuring seven degrees on the Richter scale, in 2010 caused the death, according to the estimates of the local government, of over 200 people. The capital of this country, Port-au-Prince, near which the epicenter was, was almost razed to the ground. This is one of the most destructive earthquakes ever recorded, although it was not the strongest.
The following year, Japan was hit by the strongest earthquake since measurements were made in that country, measuring around nine degrees on the Richter scale, and caused a 10-meter-high tsunami, as well as a disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. About 20 thousand people died. So, ten times less than in Haiti, although the earthquake was stronger by almost two degrees on the Richter scale.
Japan has a long history of developing seismic isolation technologies, precisely because it is located in a seismic area. High-rise buildings in this country usually have a system of anti-shaking devices (seismic isolators in the foundation). Depending on the height and other factors, buildings built with the help of this technology sway laterally. In addition to this new technology, the application of the old technology, which was once used in the construction of temples, and which is still used today, is also interesting, as it has proven to be very effective. In the last 1400 years, only two temples have collapsed due to earthquakes. Japanese temples are resistant due to three important elements: a wide, heavy canopy that serves to withstand the gravitational load, "floating floors" and shinbashira - a heavy central pillar whose purpose is to absorb shock. A modern approach to this ancient technology was used in the design of Tokyo's Sky Tree tower, one of the tallest buildings in the world.
In Japan, the construction of buildings must comply with seismic standards and regulations set by the Building Standards Act. In addition, the Japanese have built an early warning system for the danger of earthquakes. A minute before the 2011 earthquake was felt in Tokyo, the alarm system went off. This, in addition to strict building regulations, saved many lives.
The enormous damages in 2010 in Haiti, otherwise the poorest Caribbean country, were caused by several reasons. This country is in a very seismically active area, the population density is high, and the buildings (concrete and cinder blocks) are built to withstand frequent hurricanes, but not earthquakes.
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