Hydrometeorological climate hazards cannot be avoided or stopped, and therefore it is important for Montenegro to adopt climate change adaptation plans, said Luka Mitrović from the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology (ZHMS).
In an interview with the MINA Agency, Mitrović said that, according to the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the area of Southeast Europe and the Mediterranean, to which Montenegro also belongs, will be significantly exposed to extreme hydrometeorological situations.
When asked how much Montenegro has been affected by climate change and how much the climate has changed recently, he replied that Montenegro shares the fate of the whole world, as a small area located in the area of Southeastern Europe and the Mediterranean.
As Mitrović said, Montenegro has already had several extreme meteorological and hydrological situations - numerous droughts, floods, fires - in the previous twenty years.
He explained that all this is a consequence of climate change and higher air temperature.
Mitrović stated that last year in Montenegro, according to unofficial results, was the warmest in the history of measurements, since 1949.
"Each decade was warmer than some climatic norm, by several degrees. In our country, the increase in temperature is already felt more significantly, especially in the northern region," added Mitrović, an independent advisor in the Climate Change Department of the ZHMS.
He said that the increase in temperature is especially reflected in the winter part of the season, that earlier there was much more snow and that the snow cover remained much longer.
"Certainly, all the projections made in this area show that this trend will continue, that there will be longer and longer dry periods, more and more intense and frequent heat waves and tropical temperatures. On the other hand, as the other extreme, there will be increasingly intense rainfall, which will cause floods," Mitrović said.
As he stated, less snow in the mountains and mountainous parts of Montenegro will affect the water reserves accumulated in the snow to be less and less.
"As a result, the abundance of springs will be less and there will be situations when some of our rivers and springs will dry up," added Mitrović and said that a specific adjustment plan should be made in order to preserve water resources.
He said that one of the obligations of Montenegro is to adopt a national plan for adaptation to climate change and added that the drafting procedure is underway, with the support of the United Nations Development Program.
"It is important to recognize what the risks are and how to adapt to all these climate risks, brought by climate change," Mitrović pointed out.
He said that the role of the state and competent institutions is irreplaceable, but also that local communities are also obliged to make local adaptation plans.
"It is important for everyone to accept that the climate will change, that in the future there will be more and more of these hazardous and risky situations and that, if we do not act now to have adaptation plans, it will be difficult for us to adapt to all these new climate conditions" , emphasized Mitrović.
He assessed that some climatic event that caused great damage is quickly forgotten in Montenegro.
"Since 2003, there have been dozens of such situations. We had a heat wave in 2003, 2009 and 2010 with major floods in the area of Lake Skadar, the Lim and Tara valleys, the Nikšić field, the Bjelopavlić plain, and 2012 with the heaviest snowfalls that caused a state of emergency," Mitrović said.
He recalled the fires in 2012 and the great droughts of 2014, 2016, 2018.
"Perhaps in Montenegro we do not sufficiently quantify the amount of damage caused as a result of climate hazards, but in the future we will have to think about how to adapt to new climate conditions, how to have less damage and preserve the health and lives of citizens," said Mitrović.
When asked if he agrees that the practice of reacting to an event is much more common in Montenegro, and the practice of adaptation and prevention much less, he answered in the affirmative and added that this can be seen from many events.
"I have witnessed many of those events, where we do not react despite the announcements of the institution I once led, let alone react a year or five years in advance, with some plans," Mitrović said.
He said that Montenegro has qualified institutions and individuals in those institutions who react very quickly.
"But it would be much easier for them and all citizens if we had good plans for adapting to the new climate conditions - if we knew exactly who should do what and what measures and activities we should implement so that the risks and damage are less", Mitrović believes.
Answering the question whether the anthropogenic factor is the primary cause of climate change, he recalled that last year was the hottest in the history of measurements and that the temperature was higher by 1,48 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period.
"There are also those skeptics who do not really believe in these scientific results, but science has proven that the warming trend is present and that the main culprit is man, i.e. anthropogenic activities, which, above all, are reflected in the fact that fossil fuels are exploited in large quantities fuel", Mitrović said.
He said the concentration of carbon dioxide is now about 420 parts per million (ppm) and has increased by more than 170 percent in about 50 years.
According to Mitrović, an increase in global temperature of just one degree Celsius causes more humidity in the atmosphere, and therefore intense cyclone activity.
"Increased temperature causes more intense atmospheric processes, meteorological and hydrological hazards that cause enormous material damage and human casualties," Mitrović said, adding that there had been such disasters before, but on a much smaller scale.
Answering the question of how some future climate changes will affect the world, he said that all climate projections are in favor of the fact that the temperature will continue to rise.
Mitrović stated that, according to the assessment of the IPCC, the risks on planet Earth will be lower if the temperature rise threshold of 1,5 degrees Celsius is not exceeded.
He said that those who are the most developed and pollute the most should help the least developed countries, which do not have the financial or human resources to deal with climate risks and hazards.
"That justice is very important, because those who pollute the least and cause the least damage to the planet Earth, they suffer the most damage," said Mitrović.
He said that, after the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, an increase in the use of renewable energy sources was recorded every year.
"In most countries of the world, which are the biggest polluters, right now the most investments are in projects of renewable energy sources," said Mitrović, adding that ten years ago the ratio of investments in renewable energy sources and in coal and oil was one to one, and now that ratio is almost two to one in favor of renewable energy sources.
"It is interesting that we in the Western Balkans have a higher percentage of the use of renewable energy sources than the European Union average," added Mitrović.
He pointed out that joint action is needed in order to reduce the emission of harmful gases, that is, to achieve the goal defined by the Paris Agreement - to stop the emission by 2050.
Mitrović said that carbon dioxide is a long-lived gas and will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds of years.
"Thus, the global temperature will not decrease so quickly, but the rising trend will stop and there will be some optimal climatic conditions, which will allow life to continue on planet Earth," Mitrović said.
He stated that it is considered that the next decade will be decisive, adding that there are still many investments related to the exploitation of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas.
It is important, as Mitrović pointed out, that decision-makers seriously understand that scientific knowledge is scientific knowledge and that it is supported by numerous arguments and evidence.
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