The decrease in the amount of snow in Montenegro, which has been recorded in recent years, is a consequence of climate change and that trend will continue, said the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology (ZHMS), while the Ski Resort points out that the current winter season is a warning that it is necessary to invest in system of artificial snow.
In Montenegro, the first, and for now the only major snowfall this winter, was recorded only on January 20, when there was 15 to 40 centimeters (cm) of snow in the municipalities in the north.
Mirjana Ivanov, head of the Department of Applied Meteorology and Climate Change of the ZHMS, said that, during the last five years, the mean annual maximum snow depth in Kolasin and Žabljak was below the average for the period from 1961 to 1990.
"Projections of changes in the total annual amount of snow show that the amount of snow in the northern region will be ten percent less by 2030. The decreasing trend will continue," Ivanov told the MINA agency.
According to the Institute's data, from 1961 to 1990, the annual maximum snow depth in Kolašin was 62,4 cm, while in the last four years it was from 38 to 48 cm, and only in 2019 was it above that average, amounting to 64 cm.
In Žabljak, from 1961 to 1990, the annual maximum height of the snow cover was 133,9 cm, and in the last five years it was constantly below that average, from 47 cm in 2020 to 124 cm in 2021.
"At the same time, the temperatures were above average and in the category of warm, to extremely warm, on an annual basis," said Ivanov.
She points out that the decrease in the annual amount of snow compared to the climatological norm of 1961-1990. greater than the decrease in total precipitation.
Ivanov explained that this is a consequence of the increase in air temperature, because part of the snowfall was more in the form of rain.
According to the data, the annual amount of snow during the climatological normal 1961-1990. in Kolašin it was 1956,2 cm, and in the last four years it was below that average - from 455 cm in 2020 to 1.729 cm in 2022, while it was higher only in 2019, when it was 2.408.
In Žabljak, from 1961 to 1990, the annual amount of snow was 8.711 cm, and in the last five years, an increase was recorded only in 2021, when that number was 11.246.
Ivanov explains that the total amount of snow in Kolašin for the period from 2000 to 2023 is lower in November, December and January compared to the climatological normal of 1961-1990, while it is higher in February, March and April.
As she said, 2005 and 2012 were extreme in terms of snow from December to March.
Therefore, according to Ivanov, in 2005 the total annual snow depth in Kolašin was 8.063 cm, which is 6.106 higher than the values from the climatological norm of 1961-1990, while the difference for 2012 was 5.721 cm.
Ivanov states that the total amount of snow in Žabljak is lower for the period from November to May 2000-2023. compared to 1961-1990, and on an annual basis it was higher only in 2005 and 2012.
As she said, the spatial and temporal distribution of average annual precipitation at the level of Montenegro for the period from 1961 to 1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2020. year, indicates a trend of decreasing mean annual precipitation, especially in the northeastern region.
Ivanov points out that such a trend has continued during the last two decades, until today.
"Such a decrease is not statistically significant, but during the last 20 years, extreme events have come to the fore due to a warmer climate," said Ivanov.
She said that there is a statistically significant change in the daily intensity of precipitation in Žabljak, in Pljevlja and Kolašin, when it comes to the northern region.
Ivanov states that one of the consequences of climate change is the reduction of snow cover in Montenegro.
"It is a general trend and it is characteristic especially for the region of South-Eastern Europe. However, the trend of decreasing precipitation has recently spread to other parts of Europe," Ivanov explained.
As she said, because of the warmer climate, extreme events have come to the fore, which include higher rainfall intensities, sudden temperature changes and strong storms.
The executive director of the Ski Resort of Montenegro Đuro Milošević told the MINA agency that the winter season has so far been unsuccessful and that this, along with the 2019/2020 season, is an "alarm" that the state must invest in an artificial snowmaking system.
"The temperatures that were during January at the ski center itself allowed for the production of artificial snow," said Milošević and pointed out that in the matter of artificial snow, one should not only look at the ski resorts of Montenegro, but also at the country's tourism economy.
Milošević stated that the best indicator of the winter season is a comparison between January this year and last year.
The 22/23 ski season started on January 21 last year.
Milošević said that the turnover in January of this year was 83,7 thousand euros, and 280 ski passes and 2.436 tickets for panoramic rides were sold.
"In January 2023, a turnover of EUR 463,7 thousand was achieved, 8.800 ski passes and 3.638 tickets for panoramic rides were sold," said Milošević.
He emphasized that the data show that Ski Resorts achieved only 18 percent of turnover in January of this year compared to the same month last year.
Milošević points out that, due to the lack of snow, until now the services offered at the Kolašin 1600 ski center included the services of a restaurant, a coffee bar, a panoramic cable car ride K8 to the top of Troglav, a conveyor belt for beginner skiers with a ski range about a hundred meters long, as well as two tubing tracks.
As he states, considering that the New Year's, Christmas holidays and school holidays passed without skiing, it is very difficult to make up for lost time.
Milošević added that, in the event of snow, the losses could be partially reduced.
"But if it snowed in the second half of February and with at least 30 skiing days, those losses would certainly be partially reduced," Milosevic emphasized.
The National Tourist Organization (NTO) points out that the lack of snow in recent years in the north of Montenegro significantly affects the winter tourist season, posing challenges to traditional winter activities and destination offers.
As they said, this creates a need to diversify the offer and organize events, as well as various activities such as hiking, biking, horse riding and the like.
"Although it cannot completely replace the number of visitors, the tourism sector is trying to adapt the offer to climate changes in order to maintain the attractiveness of winter destinations", stated the NTO.
They emphasized that, in order to overcome the lack of snow, it is crucial to work on diversifying the tourist offer in the north of the country.
"The offer should not be based solely on weather conditions, but it is necessary to include rural, gastronomic, active, eco tourism, as well as through the organization of events that do not depend directly on snowfall", stated the NTO and added that special emphasis is on MICE , that is, congress tourism.
As they stated, Montenegro is a very attractive destination in this sense, if you take into account the opening of new four- and five-star hotels, which have the necessary facilities and equipment that meet world standards, unusual nature, opportunities for organizing unforgettable excursions, rich gastronomic offer, as well as the fact that it is only about a two-hour flight away from most European centers.
NTO emphasized that Kolašin and Žabljak are already popular destinations, which the unique combination of natural beauty, rich cultural heritage and various activities make desirable for visitors during all seasons.
That is why, according to them, it is not possible to determine only one time of the year as primary when it comes to tourism, considering that both seasons - summer and winter, offer equally exciting opportunities for tourists.
"Taking into account the dynamic challenges related to the weather, it is important to emphasize that these destinations are still interesting and that continuous work is being done to enrich the tourist offer in order to ensure greater interest of visitors in the long term," said the NTO.
They said that it is necessary to invest even greater efforts towards promotion in new markets, improvement of infrastructure and synergy of the tourism sector to work on a better offer of content, a richer range of attractions and activities, which would benefit everyone regardless of the time of year.
Climate change affects not only the winter, but also the summer tourist season
Teaching assistant at the Faculty of Tourism and Hotel Management, Ilija Morić, told the MINA agency that climate change is already affecting, but will also affect tourism in Montenegro and the world even more.
As he said, because of this, in Montenegro, it is necessary to improve hotel capacities and diversify the structure of the offer related to attractions, activities and the development of non-mass tourism.
According to Morić, with the increase in average air temperatures and frequent heat waves, there will be a strong impact on the "peak" season, from June to August, which may lead to a drop in the number of visits and income in that period.
"But we can expect an extension of the season in the pre- and post-season due to a more pleasant climate," said Morić.
This, as he assessed, requires the creation of an adequate offer that can support, that is, generate year-round tourism.
Morić emphasized that, in terms of tourism policy, it is necessary to develop at least two segments.
"The first is the improvement of the hotel offer, in terms of volume, structure and quality in all parts of Montenegro, because such an offer has a greater ability to offer a more complete service in the conditions of certain climatic risks," said Morić.
According to him, the current dominance of apartments and other individual accommodation facilities does not contribute to the resilience of the tourism industry of Montenegro to climate change.
He added that hotel facilities are able to provide better quality and more complete service, especially in conditions of temperature shocks and other risks, both in the main season and in the rest of the year.
"The second relates to the structure of the offer in terms of attractions, activities and events. We need to diversify through the development of "non-mass" tourism, and primarily by improving health, rural, cultural, congress and other forms of tourism that can extend the season and attract visitors to other areas of Montenegro, beyond the beaches and the coast," said Morić.
Those two structural changes can, as he said, represent the main measures in the context of climate adaptation and development of sustainable tourism in Montenegro.
Commenting on the way climate change affects tourism, he said that among the risks are increased UV radiation, rising sea levels, droughts, fires, but also the problem with snow cover in mountainous areas.
"Nevertheless, these are changes that are long-term and require significant investments", emphasized Morić.
That is why, as he added, it is necessary to start with them as soon as possible, that is, to continue, because certain activities are already being carried out.
"The Strategy of Smart Specialization and the priority of Sustainable and Health Tourism stand out as a strategic commitment of Montenegro in terms of the specialization of the offer and the development of new products and markets," explained Morić.
According to him, Montenegro is developing capacities to combat the consequences of climate change, the aim of which is to adapt and partially neutralize negative consequences for tourist traffic and income, but also to generate benefits in terms of environmental protection and preservation of social and cultural values.
"On the one hand, we are working on a better understanding of the potential impact of climate change, the development of adaptation plans, as well as the creation of certain actions and resources necessary for the implementation of all of the above," said Morić.
On the other hand, as he explained, the next phase is the definition of financial sources and the construction of physical infrastructure that will protect against risks such as floods, droughts and fires.
"In the meantime, it is important to further develop the measurement system and mechanism for raising awareness," Morić said.
Stating that the issue of climate change and its consequences is very complex, Morić said that activities in that segment must constantly be developed, increased and adapted.
"The current activities are satisfactory and are a consequence of the available capacities of Montenegro, both in terms of personnel and financial", said Morić.
According to him, the first step is to strengthen the personnel structure in all institutions, but at the same time it is necessary, with the existing resources, to continue with scientific and research activity and the creation of action plans for various sectors of the economy, including tourism.
In addition to planning and research activities, Morić also pointed out the importance of investing in general physical infrastructure, in terms of protection against risks such as fires, floods and droughts.
One of the options is, as he stated, artificial snowmaking.
"For the needs of tourism, it is necessary, in addition to general physical infrastructure, to invest in elements of tourist infrastructure and superstructure that mitigate negative effects, such as artificial snow, fire protection, water supply, larger green areas," said Morić.
He explained that the aforementioned infrastructure cannot be built in the short term, primarily due to high costs, adding that the process must be started.
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