The total increase in the average annual surface temperature of the Adriatic Sea is greater than one and a half degrees, which is the limit for reducing or increasing the risk for marine biodiversity, fisheries, ecosystems and their functions, according to data obtained by Center for Investigative Journalism of Montenegro (CIN-CG).
"According to data from the main meteorological station in Bar, the average annual sea temperature has been increasing since 1980. The total increase in the mean annual temperature of the sea surface is greater than one and gradual. In the last five years, its mean values were equal to or greater than 19 degrees," the Institute for Hydrometeorology and Seismology of Montenegro (ZHMCG) told CIN-CG.
Director of the Center for Climate Change UDG Ivana Vojinović for CIN-CG, it indicates estimates that the Adriatic Sea warms by 0,03 degrees on average per year, and that at this rate in the next 10 years the temperature of the sea surface could rise by 0.3 degrees, and in 100 years by up to three degrees.
"The surface layer of the Adriatic Sea (up to a depth of 20 m) warmed by about 1,8 Celsius, the intermediate layer (up to 100 m) cooled by about 0,6 C, and the lower layer warmed by 0,2. "It is enough to compare sea temperatures a few decades ago, which were 20 to 25 degrees Celsius, and today the usual temperatures are around 27 degrees and above," she says.
Vojinović explains that the increase in sea temperature is the main cause of all other changes occurring in the Adriatic Sea, which include changes in its flora and fauna, as well as an increase in the frequency of algal blooms.
"The flow of oxygen into the deep layers of the sea is weaker, which has a significant impact on the living world at the bottom of the sea. Some of the invasive species have already migrated and established a population in our part of the Adriatic Sea, such as the blue crab and lionfish, and are gradually affecting the withdrawal of autochthonous species to deeper waters," she points out.
Sea level rise, there are no protective measures
These are not the only changes when it comes to the Adriatic Sea. Geographically, part of the Mediterranean is a semi-closed system, which makes our coast particularly sensitive. The Adriatic Sea, like other seas and oceans, is facing an increase in sea level due to global warming and melting glaciers.
"As a consequence of climate change, sudden, uncontrolled precipitation occurs, which for a short period of time releases a large amount of water on the ground, which reaches the sea and leads to a rise in the level in semi-closed systems, i.e. to the flooding of coastal areas", the Kotor Marine Biology Institute (IBMK) told CIN-CG.
The projected rise in the level of the Adriatic Sea by the end of the century is 35 cm, which was stated in the draft of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NAP), which was publicly discussed this summer and which has been in the making for four years. In the same document, it is stated that there are currently no measures to protect against sea level rise in Montenegro.
"In the case of Montenegro, this is a significant climate risk in the coastal zone for human lives, infrastructure, tourism, fisheries, coastal ecosystems and wetlands, which can lead to frequent occurrences of floods, intensification of the erosion process, habitat loss, as well as salt intrusion water into the land and its mixing with sources of drinking water", says Vojinović.
Sandy beaches can be endangered, because the water collapses the structure of the coast and the erosion processes are intensified.
"Highly affected regions include Ulcinj Salt Flats, Ada Bojana and the southern part of Velika Plaža, Tivat and Morinj Salt Flats in the Bay of Kotor. The analysis shows that along the entire coast there are settlements in areas threatened by sea level rise," states the NAP.
The upper layer of the sea, the shallow one, is the most productive part of the sea because it has the most favorable conditions for the life of both plants and animals. The rise in sea level, therefore, as well as the rise in temperature, also affects underwater life.
IMBK indicates that the consequences of climate change are already evident through the arrival of new species, mainly from tropical seas that have become home to us.
"Various other factors significantly increase the population of marine species, which leads to the so-called of the blooming of the sea", they explain. They also estimate that these changes will also affect tourism.
"Certain species form specific communities that are adapted to given environmental conditions and as soon as one of the factors is disturbed, e.g. if the water level rises, these communities will find themselves in a deeper part where the conditions for them have now changed and there will be changes in them. Any change in the abundance of a species leads to changes in the circulation system of matter and energy in the marine ecosystem. As a healthy sea is a prerequisite for the development of tourism in the coastal region, this economic branch will also be affected by the collapse of the quality of the sea.", they state.
The Baltic and Adriatic Seas are more susceptible to climate change due to their shallow coastal areas.
"There is a lower level of oxygen in the water, which causes the following problem: changing the temperature changes the metabolism of organisms, increasing the need for oxygen. The European Environment Agency emphasizes that this kind of climate can be deadly for some native species, and at the same time it can open the way for species that have never been in that area before. In this way, new species can become invasive and additionally harm the native ones", explains the director of the NGO Ecopatriotism for CIN-CG. Ivana Cogurić.
CIN-CG contacted the Ministry of Ecology (ME) regarding this topic, but did not receive a response until the publication of the text.
Reduced water balance in all river basins
The greatest impact of climate change on the water sector is reflected in the reduction of the water balance in all river basins, states the Draft NAP. According to these findings, a reduction of up to 27 percent of the average annual flow is expected by the end of the century, primarily due to a decrease in precipitation.
"At all analyzed hydrological stations, there is a trend of decreasing medium and small waters in the period 1991-2020, compared to the period 1961-1990. While the analysis of large waters showed an increasing trend", he confirms for CIN-CG Mirjana Popović, head of the Department for Hydrological Analysis.
The increase in temperature leads to enormous droughts, which affect the reduction of river levels in Montenegro.
At the beginning of September this year, it was announced that the river Ibar had dried up in several places, from the border of Serbia with Montenegro, 20 kilometers downstream to the town of Ribariće.
"The drying up of parts of the Ibar river watercourse is related to climatic conditions. This is clearly indicated by trends in our watercourses. However, we cannot always be sure that there are no other natural or anthropogenic influences in addition to the climate factor," a retired hydrologist explained to Ecoportal. Darko Novakovic.
Consecutive droughts in the period from 2017 to 2019 reduced the water levels of the Morača and Zeta rivers, the Skadar lake and thus negatively affected the sectors of agriculture, energy and fishing, Ivana Vojinović points out.
"The rivers do not have standard cycles due to the lack of snowfall. We have severe summer droughts and an irregular cycle of winter rainfall and flash floods that destroy roads and destroy forests. So, we have a dry season and one with precipitation, which when it starts is so strong that the riverbeds cannot receive such a quantity of water, so we also have floods in the northeastern part of Montenegro", says Ivana Čogurić.
"Abundant rain series in combination with melting snow or the absence of snowfall in mountainous areas, especially from October to December, lead to an increase in the water level in rivers and lakes, after which floods occur that cause material damage and threaten the normal functioning of infrastructure systems," he explains. Vojinovic.
Flooding has been particularly pronounced in recent years
"The rim of Lake Skadar, the lower reaches of Morača and Bojan are the most threatened by floods in Montenegro. Also, more and more frequent and intense floods are occurring in the Plav-Gusinj basin, as well as along the Lim flow from Plav to Bijelo Polje. Drastic examples are the floods in 2009 and 2010, when the half-century records of water levels on rivers were broken, and Lake Skadar reached its historical maximum of 10,44 meters above sea level. 30.000 hectares of agricultural land were flooded," explains Vojinović.
"The Montenegrin sector of water resources is the most sensitive to climatic reduction of precipitation and increase in temperature and heavy rains. In general, reduced yields in quantity and quality from Montenegrin water sources are expected, which means more expensive and reduced water supply for most residential areas, as well as less capacity for industrial and commercial use. For example, the reduction of rain runoff is estimated to reduce gross revenues from the sale of hydropower from the Mratinje Dam by 6,6-12,8 million euros per year," says a document published by Green Home in 2020 Adapting to Climate Change.
As a direct consequence of meteorological factors, the so-called meteorological floods, i.e. short-term rains of high intensity that lead to urban and torrential floods. As a result of urban floods, parts of the city, roads, and houses are flooded, causing great material damage, Vojinović points out.
"In Nikšić in June 2018, about 105 lit/m2 fell in less than an hour. Flash floods are associated with places where there is no permanent river flow. An example of such a flood happened in Rožaje, in the fall of 2005," she explains.
In the Sea Area Plan in Montenegro: concept and proposals for planning solutions, it is written that the assessment of the effects of climate change in the European Union under existing climate conditions shows that the expected annual damages are at the level of 1,25 billion euros, while over 100 thousand people are threatened by coastal floods .
The human factor
Environmental activist Vuk Vujisic emphasizes that climate change will bring us periods of drought in which water sources that have never dried up in the past decades will dry up, and everything we do by burning and cutting forests will speed up the process. He reminds us that we must build a system for the reconstruction of burned and devastated areas.
The Draft NAP states that "the legislative and policy framework of the water sector does not provide for adaptation to climate change or natural solutions for the protection of water sources in terms of mitigating climate change".
“Some areas have historically been water scarce, due to geographic location, topography and geology (karst), which will worsen with climate change. Impacts caused by climate change in different regions, especially the Zeta River Valley and the North, are exacerbating vulnerability to water-related challenges. Increased evaporation and reduced seasonal snow deposits have a negative impact on water availability," this document states.
In addition to the great influence of nature, the human factor also has a significant impact on climate change.
"The protection of water sources is insufficient - only 49 out of about 90 sources used for water supply have specific protection zones. The main spring for the coastal region (Bolje sestre spring in the Skadar Lake region) is threatened by illegal gravel extraction in its vicinity," states the Draft NAP.
"Gravel is still illegally exploited in the sanitary zone by several companies and individuals, and the same companies put various kinds of waste in the craters. The temporary dam, which was rebuilt this year as well, proved the claims about the connection of the underground waters of Morača and Cijevna with the Bolje sestre water source, so now thanks to the reduction of exploitation, we also have a stable water supply with this dam.", says Vujisic.
He points out that climate change did contribute to the decline in the abundance of springs throughout Montenegro, but in the case of the Regional Water Supply, the multi-meter drop in groundwater as well as wells in the area is due to the excavation of the Morača bed and its displacement., as well as breaking through waterproof foundations in some locations.
Not much is currently known about the effects of climate change on water quality. Concern about water quality is becoming more and more important, however, separating anthropological factors from the impact of climate change is a big problem. In order to begin the fight against the impact of climate change on water resources, and in order to come up with an adequate plan and strategy for solving the mentioned problem in the future, reliable assessments of the state of water resources must be made, whose studies must include assessments of the frequency, intensity and duration of potential future hydrological events.
The most significant political framework in Europe related to river flow is the Water Framework Directive. According to that Directive, each EU member state must establish a monitoring program for water flows and volumes of water in their main basins. With the help of these data, the observed flow of rivers could be connected with climate data, which would enable the creation of projections of future trends conditioned by climate change, according to Ekoportal.
The impact of climate change at the global level
The United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that water-related disasters will increase in both frequency and severity in the coming years.
Almost two-thirds of the world's population experiences severe water shortages for at least one month of the year. Data from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that 85 percent of the world's population lives in the arid part of the planet, as well as that in many parts of the world the availability of water resources is decreasing. About 780 million people in the world do not have access to water, and about 2,5 billion people do not have access to adequate sanitation. Also, about 6 to 8 million people annually suffer the consequences of diseases caused by contaminated water.
Climate change has an impact on the world level, one example is Greece. The abandoned buildings of the village of Kalio in central Greece, until recently submerged in an artificial lake, resurfaced during a severe drought due to the drop in the level of the lake, the main reservoir of water for Athens.
The dangers of climate change are growing, and the European Union is not ready to deal with extreme heat, forest fires and even worse floods, the European Environment Agency (EEA) warned.
The dangers of climate threats are growing faster than our social preparedness, said the director of the EEA Leena Yla-Mononen at the time of publication of the agency's new report.
"Hundreds of thousands of people will die from heat waves, and economic losses from coastal flooding could reach one thousand billion euros per year," the report says.
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