Montenegro is facing a long-term demographic decline, and the growth of wages and gross domestic product is not enough to stop the outflow of population.
These are, among other things, the conclusions of the analysis "Demographic Crisis: Is Montenegro Planning or Improvising?" prepared by the Society of Statisticians and Demographers and the Center for Democratic Transition (CDT).
According to the data from the analysis, between 2011 and 2023, around 94 thousand citizens emigrated from Montenegro - an average of 22 people per day.
The analysis states that this demographic loss is equivalent to the disappearance of an entire population the size of today's Nikšić, Berane and Gusinje, and that current measures are not sufficient to stop these trends.
As noted, planned measures such as bonuses for the birth of a child, free apartments in the countryside, and the possibility for one parent to take paid leave for three years, although necessary, are not adapted to the needs of modern society.
"It seems that the priorities of younger generations have surpassed purely economic incentives and are increasingly linked to the quality of life, the rule of law and the education system, which represent key prerequisites for making decisions about life and family planning in a given geographical area," the publication states.
The analysis warns that continuing to insist exclusively on financial incentives, without creating essential prerequisites for a quality life, could lead Montenegro into a new phase of populism, but even discrimination, as demonstrated by the case of "mothers with three or more children" because the Constitutional Court declared the measure discriminatory towards other women and men.
"Population measures must not be thoughtless, nor introduced without reliable evidence that they will bring benefits to society in the long term," the analysis emphasizes.
Instead, as stated, it is crucial to develop a long-term projection of Montenegro's population trends for the next 50 years, based on data from the 2023 Census and the fact that Montenegro will become a member of the EU by 2030.
The analysis concludes that, in order for Montenegro to respond in a timely manner to the potential demographic deficit, it is necessary to conduct detailed projections of the expected population outflow and its consequences on the labor market, economic growth, and the social system.
"This data should be the basis for shaping strategies in the areas of education, health, employment, immigration policy and public finances, in order to create timely mechanisms to mitigate the negative effects of depopulation," is one of the conclusions of the analysis.
It is stated that even after 20 years of regaining independence, Montenegro does not have a written demographic development strategy that would project demographic trends and population policies in the long term.
It is added that the Demographic Council, which was established in early 2024, has not yet achieved any concrete results.
The analysis concludes that the Council is predominantly composed of government officials, while only a small portion is elected from among independent experts, and that this way of functioning leaves the Council a body without real influence.
The authors of the analysis believe that the composition of the Council must be more balanced, with greater inclusion of independent experts and representatives of the scientific and research community who deal with various aspects of the population, in order to have a real capacity to adopt strategic and long-term population measures.
"If the Council remains exclusively tied to the executive branch, its decisions will follow political cycles and short-term agendas, instead of ensuring long-term stability and continuity of population measures," the publication concluded.
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