DFC: Montenegro should develop a special plan to protect the electoral process from foreign interference in a timely manner

Montenegro should develop a special plan to protect the electoral process from foreign interference in a timely manner, which would integrate institutional, regulatory, security, media and social measures, according to the study by the Digital Forensics Center (DFC) "Elections Under the Spotlight: Threats to the Electoral Process in Montenegro".

This study was presented today in Podgorica, at a roundtable organized by DFC at the Science and Technology Park.

DFC analyst Marko Banović said that the focus of the new study is primarily on next year's parliamentary and local elections, which, according to him, will have direct implications for institutional stability, the dynamics of European integration, and long-term geopolitical orientation.

"Unfortunately, as in previous election cycles, we will welcome this one with political instability, a fragmented party system, and pronounced social polarization," said Banović.

He explained that their goal was to shed light on patterns and methods that have already been tested on European Union (EU) soil through the analysis of already documented cases of foreign interference in electoral processes in Europe.

"The key goal was to assess the real risks and applications of similar operational models in the pre-election period in Montenegro, as well as during the election process," said Banović.

He pointed out that, when it comes to foreign influence in Europe, the key factor is Russia.

Banović explained that the basic characteristic of Russian influence is operating below the threshold of open armed conflict, combining disinformation, information manipulation, cyber operations, sabotage, organized crime, extremist groups, abuse of migration, religion, and the most obvious - political and economic influence.

As he stated, among the key master narratives that Russia uses in its information operations is the narrative that the West is in crisis, that Europe is going through a moral and identity crisis, and that it has major problems with migration, the economy, and cultural conflicts.

"The second master narrative is, of course, the loss of sovereignty and Western interference, which is that the EU and NATO are limiting the autonomy of states," said Banović.

He stated that Russian narratives are that Russia is the protector of the traditional order and traditional values, and that the West is an aggressor and a hypocrite.

Banović said that, when it comes to Montenegro, disinformation campaigns by Russian-Serbian proxies have shaped public opinion in almost all election cycles, and especially from 2016 to the present.

He explained that the four key narratives they observed were narratives about the vulnerability of Serbs in Montenegro and discrimination, about Montenegro being an "ambassadorate" and lacking its own sovereignty, then narratives about the Serbian language and symbols, as well as the instrumentalization of Kosovo.

According to Banović, one of the key levers for the expansion of Russian and Serbian influence in Montenegro is the Serbian Orthodox Church (SPC), which has a pronounced mobilization capacity that goes beyond the religious framework and enters the sphere of national and political mobilization.

"It also provides an ideological framework for the actions of almost all other proxies in the state, which include political structures, media, extremist groups and non-governmental organizations," Banović said.

The DFC study emphasizes the need to develop a special plan to protect the electoral process from foreign interference.

"Montenegro should develop a specific plan to protect the electoral process from foreign interference in a timely manner, which would integrate institutional, regulatory, security, media and social measures," the study states.

Such a plan, it is added, should be aligned with European standards, recommendations of the European Commission, and the experiences of countries that have already been exposed to intensive foreign influence operations.

"In this sense, next year's elections represent not only a political, but also a security and democratic test for Montenegro. Their protection must begin before the formal start of the campaign, as hybrid operations are most often prepared much earlier than they become visible to the wider public," the study points out.

It is stated that next year's parliamentary and local elections require a comprehensive approach to protecting the electoral process, as the risks of foreign interference are not limited to the distribution of disinformation or individual influence campaigns.

It is emphasized that malignant foreign influence can operate simultaneously through the media, social networks, political actors, religious and identity narratives, financial channels, regional proxies, and institutional weaknesses.

"Therefore, the response of the state, civil society and the media should be timely, coordinated and based on a clear risk assessment," the study emphasized.

The DFC has also prepared recommendations for strengthening the resilience and protection of the electoral process in the pre-election period in Montenegro, and among them, the first priority is the establishment of an institutional mechanism for monitoring and responding to foreign interference in the electoral process.

"The Government, the Parliament, the National Security Agency (ANB), the State Election Commission, the Agency for Electronic Media, the Agency for the Prevention of Corruption (ASK), the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MUP) and relevant regulatory institutions should establish a permanent coordination body for electoral integrity," the study states.

It was explained that this body would monitor risks of foreign interference, exchange information, identify potential incidents and publicly communicate verified findings.

"It is particularly important that foreign interference, information manipulation and hybrid threats are formally recognized as part of electoral security, as the existing institutional framework is still not sufficiently adapted to the new nature of the threats," the study added.

As stated, the second priority relates to completing electoral reform and closing legal loopholes that can be used for destabilization.

"It is essential that issues of voter registration, residency, campaign financing, media representation, digital advertising, and campaign oversight are resolved before entering the most intense phase of the pre-election period," the study says.

It states that any change to electoral rules must be implemented transparently, inclusively and with the broadest possible political consensus.

"Unilateral or late changes to electoral rules can trigger political crisis, delegitimization of the process, and hybrid pressure from third parties. Special attention should be paid to protecting diaspora voting rights and preventing narratives that could turn the voter registration issue into an instrument of identity polarization," the study added.

The priority, as stated, is also to strengthen the transparency of political financing and prevent covert foreign subsidization of campaigns.

It is emphasized that the experiences of European countries show that foreign influence does not only operate through propaganda, but also through non-transparent support for political actors, associations, media, influencers, consulting structures, and digital campaigns.

"KAS and the relevant authorities should improve oversight of the financing of political entities and campaigns on social networks. It is necessary to introduce the obligation of detailed reporting on digital advertising, the engagement of marketing agencies, political consultants, influencers and media intermediaries," the study adds.

One of the recommendations is systematic monitoring of the information space.

"During the pre-election period, constant monitoring of traditional media, portals, social networks and more closed communication channels, such as Telegram and Viber groups and coordinated networks on the X, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube platforms, should be established," the DFC's recommendations state.

It was emphasized that monitoring should not only focus on individual fake news, but also on narrative patterns, coordinated behavior, artificial amplification, networks of fake accounts, abuse of artificial intelligence, deepfake content, and attempts to discredit electoral institutions.

It is stated that the fifth priority relates to the responsibility of digital platforms.

"State institutions, regulatory bodies and civil society should establish direct communication channels with major platforms before the campaign begins. The aim is to quickly report coordinated manipulations, misrepresentations of media and institutions, deepfake content, paid political campaigns without transparent sources and networks that artificially amplify polarizing narratives," the study adds.

The protection of media space is also a priority, for which it is stated that Montenegro must strengthen the transparency of media ownership, financing and editorial ties with regional political and business structures.

It is emphasized that one of the priorities is strengthening the cybersecurity of electoral and state institutions.

"The State Election Commission, municipal election commissions, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, voter registries, media outlets, and key state institutions must undergo security checks of their information systems before the start of the campaign," the study states.

The DFC believes that it is necessary to develop protocols for responding in the event of cyber attacks, data leaks, DDoS attacks, compromise of communication channels, or publication of forged documents.

"Particular attention should be paid to the possibility of thwarting cyber incidents that could be used to spread narratives about the illegitimacy of the elections, vote theft, or the inability of institutions to protect the process," the study added.

It is emphasized that one of the priorities is strategic communication of the state and that institutions must not react only after disinformation becomes the dominant topic.

"Clear communication protocols, public channels for verifying information, and rapid responses to incidents need to be prepared in advance," the study states.

As it is emphasized, the State Election Commission, police, prosecutor's office, regulatory bodies and the Government must communicate precisely, timely and without political instrumentalization.

It is stated that the silence of institutions in crisis situations opens up space for manipulation, and inconsistent messages further create distrust.

One of the priorities in the study is to strengthen the role of civil society, the academic community and independent experts.

"Organizations dealing with election monitoring, disinformation, digital rights, media, and security should be included in the early risk detection system. Civil society can play a key role in mapping narratives, uncovering coordinated campaigns, educating citizens, and connecting with international networks to monitor foreign interference," the study says.

At the round table, a minute of silence was observed to honor the recently deceased Goran Poleksić, who worked at DFC.

The President of the Atlantic Council (ASCG), Savo Kentera, said that Poleksić was there for the young people from the DFC, to pass on his knowledge and rich experience to them.

"He is someone who spent his entire life in the security sector, starting with the ANB, later the military intelligence service, and at the end of his career, he spent his last years in the ASCG, in the DFC," said Kentera.

As he stated, Poleksić passed on the best experience and knowledge he had to the people from DFC.

"You will see how well and selflessly he did it in what my colleagues from DFC will present today, in a study that will reveal in detail for the first time some things that we may have known or suspected existed, but have never been pointed out as directly as they will be today," said Kentera.

He congratulated his colleagues from the DFC on their courage and boldness to go a step further and show that anyone who tries to interfere in the internal affairs of Montenegro, wherever they come from, will be thwarted, at least when it comes to ASCG and the DFC.

"We will continue to do everything to keep Montenegro strong, stable, European in the family of European Western nations. This is what Goran would have wanted, who fought and believed in such a Montenegro until the last moment," Kentera said.