If current demographic trends continue, Montenegro will have 518 thousand inhabitants in 2050, and 326 thousand in 2100, said the Director General of the Directorate for Demography at the Ministry of Social Welfare, Family Care and Demography, Mileva Brajušković Popović.
At the conference "Demographic Resilience of Montenegro: Population as the Foundation of Sustainable Development", which was organized on the occasion of July 11 - World Population Day, she said that demographic issues do not only concern statistics, but also determine the future of the country.
"That is why demographic issues shape almost all development policies of a country," said Brajušković Popović.
She said that demographic projections are not a prediction of an inevitable outcome, but a warning that shows the consequences if existing trends are not addressed.
"If demographic trends continue as they are at the moment, in 2050 we will have 518 thousand inhabitants, and by 2100 326 thousand inhabitants," said Brajušković Popović.
She said that the "demographic clock is ticking" and that there is no more time to delay, because changes are happening every day.
"The consequences will be felt by generations to come. Are we ready to recognize demographic policy as one of Montenegro's key development priorities? The issue of demographic sustainability is the issue of Montenegro's future," said Brajušković Popović.
She said that Montenegro is in a post-transition demographic stage, characterized by low birth rates and slightly increasing mortality rates.
Brajušković Popović stated that Montenegro recorded negative natural growth for the first time in 2020.
She said that in 2021 and 2022, negative natural growth was also recorded, due to the coronavirus situation, and after that, natural growth values recovered slightly and "we are in a slight plus."
Brajušković Popović said that this, however, does not give room for optimism, because, as she stated, there is a continuous decline in the number of live births.
"Considering the statistics from 1961 to last year, you see that the number of births has been continuously falling, to arrive at the data from last year - that we recorded a historical minimum in the number of children born," added Brajušković Popović.
She stated that the total fertility rate, which represents the number of children born per woman, was 4,6 in 1951, while today it is 1,8 or 1,7, depending on the year of statistical observation.
According to Brajušković Popović, the demographic issue is very complex and cannot be viewed in isolation from the current socio-historical moment.
Speaking about external migration of the population, she said that they do not have that data, but that estimates are being made.
"It is estimated that from 2011 to 2023, around 94 thousand people left Montenegro, which is a very significant number for a small country. The goal is not to stop migration, but we should insist on circular migration," said Brajušković Popović.
She said that the third challenge Montenegro faces is demographic aging.
"There are two processes at the root of demographic aging. One is the one related to the reduced birth rate, and the other is the increased life expectancy," added Brajušković Popović.
As she said, in the middle of the last century, life expectancy in Montenegro was 59,9 years, and today it is 78 years.
She said that all municipalities are in demographic age, but that the difference is only in intensity.
"We have nine municipalities in the stage of deepest demographic aging, eight of which are located in the northern region, and one in the central region, which is the municipality of Cetinje," added Brajušković Popović.
She said that it is particularly concerning that the northern region accounts for 52,8 percent of Montenegro's area, but only 24,5 percent of the population lives there.
"And in the municipality of Podgorica, which now covers about ten percent of the territory of Montenegro, almost 30 percent of the population of Montenegro lives," Brajušković Popović stated.
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