The football team of Montenegro will most likely be in the 3rd hat of the draw for the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Mexico and Canada. The draw will be held on December 13, and the qualifications will begin in March of the following year.
The third hat seems favorable ("falcons" usually walked between the 3rd and 4th hats until now, they were in the second only once, 13 years ago), but it should be noted that UEFA has changed the system of European qualifications for the World Cup, so this time 12 groups will be drawn, seven of which will have five, and five groups will have four teams each.
So, there was no need for a 6th hat, as before, and the third (middle) category for the national team playing in the B League of Nations seems quite realistic.
The positions in the draw are determined based on the results in the A League of Nations when it comes to holders, i.e. places in the Fifa ranking when it comes to all other hats.
The estimate of the statistical house "Football meets data" is that Montenegro will be in the 3rd hat, and only in exceptional circumstances, in the case of a series of defeats until the end of the League of Nations, could it slip into the fourth hat. However, the chances of that are extremely small, and "Football meets data" evaluated its estimates with over 90 percent probability.
By expanding the World Cup from 32 to 48 participants, Europe got (only) three additional places - a total of 16, so the road to the World Cup is terribly difficult and complicated for the national teams of our format.
The winners of the 12 qualifying groups will directly advance to the World Cup, while the 12 runners-up, as well as the four teams from the League of Nations, which is now being played, will make the playoffs. And the playoffs are complicated - 16 selections will fight for four places, by playing the semi-finals and the final in four groups. The winners go to the World Cup.
Qualifications start in March, but only for those national teams that do not play the quarterfinals of the League of Nations (from the A category) or the playoffs in the League of Nations. If Montenegro, for example, is third in the current group with Turkey, Wales and Iceland, they will play a play-off for survival in the B League with one of the teams from the C League, and therefore will not play in the qualifiers in March. If it is the last, it is relegated directly to League C and March will be "free" for the qualifications.
Other World Cup qualification dates scheduled for June (except for the League of Nations finalists), and September, October and November.
This is a provisional composition of the hat.
First: France, Spain, England, Belgium, Netherlands, Portugal, Italy, Germany, Croatia, Switzerland, Denmark, Austria.
The second: Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, Sweden, Wales, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Romania, Norway, Greece, Czech Republic.
the third: Scotland, Slovenia, Republic of Ireland, Finland, Albania, Georgia, Iceland, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Northern Ireland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Israel.
Fourth: Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Armenia, Belarus, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Cyprus, Lithuania, Latvia, Faroe Islands.
Peti: Moldova, Andorra, Gibraltar, Malta, Liechtenstein, San Marino.
Bonus video:
