The European Championship qualifiers are over, one of the worst cycles since our national team competed as an independent country has ended.
Only once, in the "classic" qualifiers, did Montenegro finish one step lower and last, albeit in a more complicated group with five teams: in the Euro 2020 cycle, they were left behind England, the Czech Republic, Kosovo and Bulgaria, without a win, with three draws.
They are now second to last, but they had one total outsider in their group - the Gibraltar team, and with two triumphs over the micro-team from the Pyrenees, they only managed to beat the Faroe Islands at home. They lost all six other matches.
These comparisons belong to the past and serve only to present factually how low our selection has fallen. That is what FIFA's list is for, and it says - 83rd position, the worst ranking in almost the entire last decade.
A better question is, what awaits Montenegro?
Break until September, test matches for warm-up
Mirko Vučinić points out the "trial" contract he received from the Federation to lead four matches (one friendly) until the end of the cycle. After his selection left a good impression against Croatia, which deserved more than a minimal defeat, although in a match that was not very important in terms of competition, the expectation is that he will get a new one - with Mirko on the way to the 2026 Nations League, such will probably be the headlines next month.
And then there will be a break in competitive matches until September, when the fifth edition of the Nations League will be played. Some national teams will prepare for the World Cup, which will be played on the American continent in June and July, while others, like Montenegro, will play friendlies to prepare for the autumn cycle.
Vučinić will have four test matches before the start of the new edition of the Nations League - two in March, two in June. A stronger test can be expected in June, because then the rivals are mostly those who are preparing for the World Cup.
Montenegro will largely know the names of its opponents in the Nations League by then, as the draw is in February (the exact date has not yet been confirmed), and based on that draw, the names of its rivals in friendly matches will also be profiled.
Nations League - an opportunity, but an even greater danger
After the fiasco in the B League of Nations under Robert Prosinečki last year and relegation, Montenegro will play in the C division of the youngest national team competition in September.
As the next Nations League arrives on the eve of the European Championship, and brings much greater mobility towards a major competition than is the case with the LN on the eve of the World Cup, competing with rivals from the European C category is not the worst news that has befallen Montenegro.
However, the image that is being created in the public, or a part of the public, that Montenegro is the favorite in the C rank - some claim this even at this moment, when our national team is recording the worst results ever - and that it will thus "take a shortcut" to the European Championship, hides enormous dangers, and all previous experiences have taught us that such stories and predictions have little to do with reality.
In short, what is the system like?
Montenegro are seeded in Nations League C in the draw and will face three rivals from the three pots ranked behind them. If they win their group, as they once did in Division C under Faruk Hadžibegić (albeit in the "wrong", less passable LN cycle that preceded the World Cup), when it finished ahead of Cyprus, Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, it will qualify for the play-offs for the 2028 European Championship.
This play-off will not be played until March 2028, as 2027 is reserved for the classic qualifiers. Those teams that do not take the first two positions in their groups in the qualifiers will have the LN play-off as an additional chance if they have previously secured that right by placing in the league stage.
In order for Montenegro to qualify for the European Championship, it is necessary, in addition to first place in the group in the fall of 2026, to be ahead of the other three group winners in the Nations League C in March 2028 - that is, to win the four-team playoff where the semi-finals and final are played.
It seems simple, especially with rivals from Class C, but when you see who will start from League C next fall, it is clear that Montenegro, at least based on current results, can hardly be considered a favorite.
There are few teams we are favorites against, even in the third home.
There are, for example, Iceland, Albania, Finland, Slovakia... - teams many of which have easily beaten us in previous matches (Iceland and Finland twice each). There is Bulgaria, there is Kazakhstan, and there are the Faroe Islands. Favorites? You just have to go back to last month.
Along with Montenegro, the seeded teams in the draw are Iceland, Albania and Kazakhstan (rivals we cannot meet in the league stage), but the second pot offers the Finns, Slovaks, Bulgarians and Armenians, while the third offers the Faroes, Estonia, Belarus and Cyprus...
83.
Montenegro is ranked 1st in the latest FIFA rankings, down two places from the previous month.
Although some of these teams have the quality to qualify for the European Championship through the qualifiers, and may not make it to the playoffs, it is a difficult, very difficult path to the Euros for Montenegro and through the Nations League C. And that is not pessimism, but the most realistic possible picture based on the results we have had in the last year and a half.
That's why Vučinić and his guys need to focus on themselves, not thinking about rivals and schemes, shortcuts to the Euros - to be humble, to work and not to make big promises. Maybe we'll even reach the level and surprise someone - because, in the current balance of power on the "field", there are few teams against which the "falcons" are favorites, even in the C Nations League.
Finally, it should be noted that UEFA and FIFA are changing the calendar starting with the 2026 Nations League, so there will be a super-date for national teams in the fall: from September 24 to October 6, all teams will be together for a longer period and will play four matches each, and then two more in a shorter period in November.
Bonus video:
