On the night when her party won a landslide victory in the European Parliament elections and the French president caused a political upheaval by dissolving parliament, Marine Le Pen, the longtime leader of the National Assembly (RN), was very clear.
"Tonight's message - including the dissolution - was addressed to the leaders in Brussels. This great victory of the patriotic movements is in line with the direction of history... We are ready to take over power if the people so desire".
Exiting the European Union and the Eurozone is no longer part of the election programs of the RN. The last time he was, in the 2017 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron inflicted a defeat on the far-right party as humiliating as the one it inflicted on him this month.
However, seven years later, Marine Le Pen's near-certain victory in snap parliamentary elections could be just as damaging to the EU, raising existential questions about France's role and severely limiting the bloc's ability to achieve its goals, the Guardian writes.
In Europe, "our coming to power will mark France's return to the European scene - to defend its interests," Jordan Bardella, the party's president and likely prime minister if they win an absolute majority, promised reporters this week.
The RN is prepared, he said, to negotiate "exemptions" from a number of EU rules for France - a founding member of the EU, its second-largest economy and half of the vital (though currently stalled) Franco-German engine that has powered it since its inception.
All but one poll so far has shown the far-right party is unlikely to win an absolute majority of at least 289 MPs in elections on June 30 and July 7, and Bardella has said he would only be willing to form a government if it did.
But, as pointed out in the analysis of the British newspaper, RN is on its way to win between 32 percent and 35 percent of the votes, after which - although translating votes into mandates is a risky business - it would almost certainly become by far the largest force in the national assembly. A poll published by the newspaper "Les Echos" on Friday showed that the RN could win as much as 37 percent of the vote.
With the left-green New People's Front (NFP) at 28 percent to 30 percent and Macron's centrist coalition whose popularity has dropped to around 20 percent, the most likely outcome of the election is a parliament even more deeply divided and polarized than before.
It is understandable that Macron's decision to call early elections caused dissatisfaction and alarm in other EU capitals, which see the move as either a mistake, or a roll of the dice, or both, according to "The Guardian".
"It's a big gamble," said one EU diplomat, warning that a parliament without a majority could slow down decision-making in a bloc already struggling to agree on policies from nature protection to future EU spending.
The aim of the National Assembly is to pass a law on "national advantage" for French companies and agriculture, in violation of the rules of the European single market, to review the EU's free trade agreements that do not "respect" France and to prevent further EU enlargement
The landslide victory for the RN is also seen as potentially boosting the chances of other far-right, Eurosceptic parties in regional elections in eastern Germany and national elections in Austria later this year.
With a so-called "hung" parliament, France "faces the prospect of a prolonged period without a fully functioning government - with unpredictable consequences for its ability to engage constructively with the EU," according to Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group consultancy.
The extensive powers of French presidents are largely dependent on their parliamentary support.
"The result would be a complete lack of any European decision-making," said François Heisburg of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The "Guardian" writes that the summits of European leaders would also face a critically weakened French president who, for all his undeniable faults, was one of the few among them who consistently advocated a stronger, more united and "sovereign" EU.
Since coming to power on a pro-European campaign, Macron has been the main source of ideas for the EU, such as his proposal for a European political community or joint borrowing to help Europe's economies out of the crisis caused by the pandemic.
Even without an absolute majority, the far right in the French parliament will seek to promote its European vision: a "Europe of nations", which entails returning more powers to the capitals. RN said that it wants to keep part of the French financial contribution to the EU.
It aims to legislate a "national advantage" for French companies and agriculture, in breach of European single market rules, to review EU free trade agreements that do not "respect" France and prevent further EU enlargement.
After a years-long process of "detoxification" translated by Le Pen, the RN now presents itself as a champion of downtrodden ordinary French people - although it has dropped some more expensive proposals to ease concerns about their impact on the economy.
"We are reasonable people," Le Pen said. "People should stop thinking the world is coming to an end. But the party remains fiercely anti-immigrant, proposing to reduce or eliminate access to welfare for non-citizens and tighten citizenship rules.
After a multi-year process of "detoxification" translated by Le Pen, the RN now presents itself as a champion of the oppressed ordinary French
"The Guardian" writes that the party's anti-European agenda could jeopardize hopes for more joint EU borrowing to finance defense or the green transition.
"The EU can, albeit with difficulty, tolerate a somewhat Eurosceptic Italy," said Marco Buti, former director general for economic and financial affairs at the European Commission.
"I don't think he can stand Eurosceptic France," Buti said. RN could adopt "a kind of tactical, prudent attitude" in the short term, "but not in the medium term: their values are too antagonistic to those on which the European project is based".
Buti, now a professor at the European University Institute in Florence, said the RN's opposition to EU decision-making would make it "very difficult" to complete a banking or capital market union, "let alone move to a common defense policy".
The political consequences of France's departure from the European project "will be objectively much more important than... for other countries," he said.
The party has already abandoned some policies that could immediately put it at odds with Brussels, including a plan to challenge the European electricity market, and Bardella this week sought to reassure France's European partners.
Any government headed by him would follow "realistic, credible" economic policies and would not weaken the country's voice abroad, said the 28-year-old. But he also promised to "defend purchasing power" by cutting taxes on fuel, gas and electricity.
Reflecting concerns about the possible economic impact of the new government, one survey found that 36 percent of small and medium-sized French companies would delay investment and employment if the RN won a majority, and 58 percent if it did.
More than 80 percent of business leaders surveyed said they opposed proposals from both parties to lower the retirement age, while 78 percent warned that increasing public spending, as both the RN and NFP are planning, would risk sending the country into bankruptcy.
Clash with Brussels over spending plans
With promised tax breaks for companies if they increase wages for low- and medium-paid workers and a promise to return the retirement age to 60, the RN's spending plans would bring it into conflict with the European Commission, the "Guardian" points out.
The paper recalls that the bloc's executive body last week sent a warning to Paris for "excessive" government spending, and adds that the RN's promises are almost impossible to reconcile with the EU's plan to be presented in the fall on how France can reduce the deficit, which is significantly higher than the EU legal limit.
Although Macron will remain in charge of foreign policy as president, in practice, government ministers play a key role in drafting EU laws, whether on green policies or migration.
France's National Assembly also controls the country's budget, meaning the French government could jeopardize future French aid to Ukraine. Bardella last week promised not to "question" France's military spending, but opposes sending troops or long-range weapons to Ukraine.
If he is forced into a painful "cohabitation" with a parliament of the opposite orientation, Macron could have much less room to maneuver on the EU stage, "The Guardian" concludes.
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