The outcome of the upcoming local elections will determine the turnout, claims methodologist Miloš Bešić.
He told Television Vijesti that it will be difficult for DPS to achieve an absolute majority, but that it is possible if the motivation of the voters of that party continues to grow, and that of their political opponents to fall.
Bešić sees the local elections as a preparatory ground for the upcoming presidential and possibly early parliamentary elections.
Bešić notes that in this election campaign, unlike previous ones, local issues dominate...
"The level of excitement is quite high, so, personally, I would expect a fairly solid turnout. And we know that the largest number of citizens, even in these large municipalities, I'm primarily referring to Podgorica, decide according to the party key, regardless of are local elections. 84 percent of the citizens of Podgorica will vote in Podgorica the same way they would vote if it were a republican election," said Bešić.
This means, he believes, that, although local, this election campaign will determine the redistribution of political forces, after everything that happened from August 30, 2020 until today.
"To measure the balance of power and to move forward with that kind of capital or loss in the political race that awaits us, especially until April, May, when the presidential elections will follow and very possibly the republican elections as well. I see these local elections, first of all, as preparatory ground for the final reckoning".
For the calculations in these elections, Bešić observes another important indicator - the motivation of the voters.
"The motivation level of DPS voters and parties close to them, let's call it the DPS bloc, has increased since the fall of Mr. Abazović's government. It still does not affect the number, but the motivation level has increased. The motivation level of those forces, anti-DPS the forces that won the elections on August 30, 2020, their motivation is declining. And that is the key problem."
Therefore, Bešić estimates that the outcome of the elections in the capital could look like this:
"It will be very difficult for the DPS to achieve an absolute majority, but if this trend continues, that the motivation of their voters increases, and the motivation of the other party decreases, then there may be a redistribution in abstention. And then due to the greater abstention of the anti-DPS electorate, that the same number of DPS voters may prevail, and make a majority".
Bešić says that when DPS was in power, it managed to keep part of the pro-Serbian electorate in abstention, but that changed on August 30 and that Djukanović's party no longer has that possibility. That's why he claims that turnout will determine the outcome of the election...
"Will these disappointed, pro-Serbian, anti-DPS voters, and they are disappointed with everything that happened after August 30, will they come out, or not. And that will determine the result, whether the DPS block will have an absolute majority or no," Besic said.
DPS has been in power in Podgorica continuously for the last 24 years.
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