The latest tariff measures introduced by the United States since April, with a basic tariff of 10 percent and additional reciprocal tariffs against certain countries, represent, as Prof. Dr. Danijela Jaćimović from the Faculty of Economics in Podgorica says, "the biggest tectonic shift in global trade since World War II."
According to Prof. Jaćimović, the economic logic of these tariffs is weak or almost non-existent. They are particularly extreme towards China, which indicates an attempt by America to preserve its global dominance, especially in high-tech sectors.
"The biggest impact of these measures is being felt first by global investors - markets have already reacted with a drop in indices, and investors are increasingly cautious. In the real sector, the consequences will depend on specific products and industries. Luxury brands and products with high profit margins, such as the pharmaceutical industry, can amortize part of the costs. However, consumer goods - such as food, cosmetics, footwear and clothing - where margins are low, will almost certainly become more expensive," said Jaćimović in "Colors of Morning" on TV Vijesti.
For Europe, as the professor states, challenges are yet to come.
"On the one hand, there is a risk of Chinese goods spilling over into European markets, which will no longer go to the US. On the other hand, there is also an opportunity for the EU to redefine itself in global trade relations. If the US tightens its approach towards European partners, the EU could be further forced to cooperate with China or, at the very least, balance," she assessed.
For small economies, including the Western Balkan countries, Professor Jaćimović sees a potential opportunity.
"In a time of reconfiguration of global supply chains, it is possible that some production from China will be transferred to smaller countries with lower tariffs. Such a situation could bring investments and new jobs. The only question is - are these countries ready to seize this opportunity," she concluded.
Bonus video:
