The Western Balkans summit, which was invited by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, opened up a whole series of questions immediately after the convening.
The unusual composition of the participants (different from the format of the Western Balkans Berlin Process), the time of the event and the contradictory expectations of the parties invited to Berlin fueled the curiosity of the media throughout Europe, especially in the part of the continent to which it refers. There was hardly a day without one of the media throwing out some new theory about what could actually happen in Berlin on April 29.
German-German model
Now a new theory has emerged that Germany could bring the opposing sides back to the negotiating table.
As Deutsche Welle (DW) learns from circles close to the German government, a historical model has come into play as a possible solution for future relations between Belgrade and Pristina: the Agreement on the Foundations for Mutual Relations concluded in 1972 between the then Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic .
The agreement was adopted at the height of the rapprochement policy of the then chancellor Willy Brant, and it opened up the possibility for the implementation of some solutions based on the "wolf sit, sheep in number" principle, in which the countries more or less normalized relations without officially recognizing each other.
But can that model be applied in the case of Serbia and Kosovo?
Diplomatic sources for DW estimate that it is difficult to expect that the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, will put his signature under the document that prevents Serbia from blocking Kosovo's request for membership in international organizations, because that would de facto also mean recognition.
Serbian President Vučić has been trying to reduce expectations from the summit in Berlin for days anyway, and his Prime Minister is also following him.
During her last visit to Berlin, in November last year, Ana Brnabić pointed out at the Zidojče Zeitung Business Conference that membership in the European Union is not that important for now. "If you asked me if I would like Serbia to join the European Union tomorrow, I would say no. Because Serbia is not ready," the Prime Minister said at the time. Early damage mitigation from what could happen if Serbia continues to refuse to budge on the Kosovo case?
The signals from Pristina ahead of the Berlin meeting are not very encouraging either. President Hashim Thaçi said that not much should be expected from the summit, and his Prime Minister Ramuš Haradinaj, in the last conversation before leaving for Berlin, asked Serbia to pay war reparations, which does not really seem like de-escalation.
Bury ideas about exchanging territories
However, one of the most important tasks of today's summit for Berlin is to finally bury the idea of exchanging territories, as a possible solution to the blockade of negotiations.
This has been Angela Merkel's clear position from the very beginning, but it is obvious that there are still voices in favor of that option, so it should be suppressed at the Berlin meeting.
And it is a message that is not only addressed to Belgrade and Pristina, but also to other centers of power in the region.
Unfortunately, there are enough candidates who could lightly reach for that mechanism.
A member of the Bundestag's foreign policy committee, Kristijan Schmidt, who recently returned from Belgrade and Pristina, where he was preparing the ground for Berlin's summit, told DW unequivocally that Berlin will not agree to changing the borders in the Balkans under any circumstances.
"I expect a new dynamic to solve the unresolved problems of coexistence in the Western Balkans, and border changes certainly do not belong to those solutions. The idea of ethnically pure states in the southeast of Europe is impossible to achieve," Schmidt told DW.
His expectations from the Western Balkans summit, as with most of those who have spoken about the meeting in recent days, are not high.
"I expect that the participants of the meeting will agree on transparent negotiations with a clear timetable that would ultimately lead to the goal, which is an agreement that everyone is behind," Schmidt said.
He also explained what he considers to be obstacles to the final agreement: "The introduction of special fees and the issue of legal status should not stand in the way of a solution".
And Schmidt clearly indicated that the German political elite believes that the time has come for the EU, led by Germany and France, to take matters into its own hands.
"Finding a solution requires the active participation of the European Union, France and Germany," Schmidt said.
A clear message to Brussels, but also a clear message to Washington and Moscow: we are the ones who decide on the future of Europe and the process of enlargement of the European Union.
Berlin angry with Brussels
Regarding the role of the EU, as experts in the situation in Brussels tell DW, Chancellor Merkel is "extremely angry" with the EU's high representative for foreign policy and security, Federico Mogherini, because of her support for the idea of exchanging territories.
As Radio Free Europe writes, Mogherini was not even invited to the summit because of this, but the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, was.
But due to his inability, Federica Mogherini still comes, but in the function of Junker's deputy, i.e. Vice President of the European Commission.
The Commissioner of the European Commission for enlargement negotiations, Johannes Hahn, was not invited to Berlin either. Officially, he was not invited because "enlargement will not be discussed in Berlin".
Disappointment for Skopje?
But that is not entirely true, because before the summit, Chancellor Merkel will hold separate talks with the Prime Ministers of North Macedonia and Albania, Zoran Zaev and Edi Ram.
First of all, the German chancellor faces the thankless task of explaining to Zaev that nothing will come of the opening of accession negotiations at the EU summit in June.
In the best case, as a source in Brussels claims, North Macedonia could possibly get the start of negotiations only at the EU summit in December.
The reason for this is France's fierce opposition to any new indication of enlargement.
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