The opposition joined forces to overthrow the cartel

Nepotism, corruption and abuse of public functions and finances are the key reason that led to changes in local elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina, analysts agree.

The leader of the URA Civil Movement, Dritan Abazović, sent a congratulatory message, saying that the wave of changes from Montenegro has spread to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

When asked whether it is possible to draw a parallel between the results of the elections in the two countries, analyst Adnan Huskić tells "Vijesti":

"Although all Balkan countries are unhappy in their own way, certain parallels can certainly be drawn. This change of paradigm is key, which is perhaps the greatest success of the opposition. The opposition in Sarajevo consists of parties of different worldviews and ideologies, but they are currently united by the urgent need to oppose a system gone wild in which corruption, nepotism and pouring public money into the pockets of a branched party clientele are the basis of political and any other activity. Arrogance, chronic incompetence, theft and malfeasance, which intensified in the midst of a generational health and human disaster, showed the citizens who they were dealing with in the most plastic way. And, obviously, neither blackmail for jobs and positions, nor threats could contain the open criticism that the voters in Bosnia and Herzegovina sent a few days ago to such policies and parties".

Nationalist parties held power for much of the post-war period in BiH in the XNUMXs, and each wove a powerful web of clientelism.

However, public outrage over the response to the Covid-19 pandemic and the corruption that accompanied the procurement of medical equipment has strengthened support for moderate parties.

Party of Democratic Action (SDA) of Bakir Izetbegović and Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) of Milorad Dodik lost power in the largest cities in BiH - Sarajevo and Banja Luka.

SNSD has ruled unchallenged in Banja Luka for the last 22 years. Their candidate Igor Radojičić, who was also supported by the other parties of the ruling coalition in Republika Srpska, lost to the opposition candidate Draško Stanivuković from the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), who was also supported by the Serbian Democratic Party.

The victory in Sarajevo was achieved by a coalition consisting of four parties: the Social Democratic Party (SDP) of BiH, Our Party, Narod i Pravda and the Independent List of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The opposition in Sarajevo has shown "amazing" maturity by being able to overcome numerous differences and focus on the goal of overthrowing the "cartel", says Huskić, a lecturer at the Sarajevo School of Science and Technology.

"They draw experience from an even more heterogeneous group of six parties, which ruled Sarajevo Canton after the 2018 elections, but which was overthrown by two parties that defected to the SDA. Both were, more than clearly, punished for it in these elections. The Consolidated Four must continuously work on resolving internal conflicts if they want to survive, but that is precisely the essence of politics".

A political analyst from Sarajevo, Ivana Marić, says that the type of cooperation between the Four is opposite to the way the national parties operate, "which have been forming the ruling coalition for decades, but have not reached any agreements, except for the distribution of money and functions."

"These four parties have different political profiles and range from the left to the right of the political spectrum. They even have conflicting views on some issues, which their opponents often pointed out during the campaign and complained about how they could cooperate with parties that have such different views from theirs. However, these parties have found a common interest in the coalition and cooperate very well on most other issues on which they have similar views. I think that this kind of cooperation is the key to success for BiH".

Marićeva adds that the citizens punished the SDA, which in the last couple of years arranged one affair after another in which high officials of the party were involved.

"Especially significant was the affair of the procurement of respirators in May 2020, for which more than five million euros were paid, while the regular price of those respirators is several times lower. The respirators were never put into use because they are of dubious quality and may even be completely unusable".

She points out that the couple Izetbegović played a significant role in the loss of the election. Bakir, son of Alija Izetbegović, and his wife, who was the only and best candidate for the director of the University Clinical Center in Sarajevo.

"The anger of the citizens was directed at the inability of the UKCS during the coronavirus pandemic, and even in some media the name of Mrs. Izetbegović was linked to the procurement of controversial respirators. Bakir Izetbegović, by not sanctioning the perpetrators of the affair and even rewarding them, caused the anger of regular SDA voters who found an alternative in the parties of the Four".

And Dodik started out as a favorite of the West

Marić points out that the Four are indignant when their victory is compared to the victory of Stanivuković in Banja Luka or the victory of the opposition in Montenegro.

"This can also be seen from the sharp reactions in Sarajevo to Abazović's congratulations on Twitter, due to his coalition with politicians and parties for which Sarajevo has some ugly war memories."

Stanivuković was under fire for not recognizing the genocide in Srebrenica and for taking photos with the Chetnik flag.

"From the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Stanivuković's victory is viewed with suspicion precisely because of his flirtation with the Chetniks, and the same can be said for the holder of the PDP list for Banjaluka, who openly supports Draža Mihajlović. The question is whether Draško will turn into Dodik in twenty years, because he too started as a favorite of the international community, and ended up on the 'black list' of the USA", Marićeva told "Vijesti".

Adnan Huskić says that the space within which the political elites in the RS can move around these issues is very narrow, and they are a direct result of Dodik's "brutal ethnochauvinist discourse".

"The public has been exposed to a radical worldview for several years in RS, due to the usurpation of public services by SNSD and Dodik. The fact that Serbia, which plays a significant role in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has never, not even during Boris Tadić's time, been able to fundamentally deviate from a similar policy of favoring ethno-nationalists in Serbia does not help in this sense. That is why politicians in the RS must permanently prove that they are Serbs enough and that they defend the RS enough".

Adnan Ćerimagić, an analyst of the Initiative for European Stability (ESI) from Berlin, told "Vijesta" that Stanivuković's positions indicate the need to reform the education system.

"Draško Stanivuković was born in 1993 and he grew up, was educated and fully formed as a man in the post-war period, in circumstances where the entity education system, politicians, the academic community and the public broadcaster offer mostly one-sided and interpretations of the past that are not based on facts. Considering that non-governmental organizations, such as the Youth Initiative for Human Rights, which are trying, cannot realistically fill the huge hole created by society in this regard, Stanivuković's positions are not surprising, but also point to the need to reform the education and media system. The results of the international PISA study on the quality of education showed that half of 15-year-olds in Bosnia and Herzegovina are functionally illiterate, that is, they can read a text, but do not know how to explain what they have read. In such circumstances, unfortunately, a large number of young politicians in Bosnia and Herzegovina grow up".

Stanivuković (27), the youngest mayor in the history of Banja Luka, in previous years drew attention to various ways of political struggle.

He was particularly active during the "Justice for David" protest, which was started due to the still unexplained death of 21-year-old David Dragičević in Banja Luka in March 2018.

As a member of the RS Assembly, he often clashed with representatives of the authorities, and is known for his sharp arguments with Dodik.

The Minister of Internal Affairs of the RS, Dragan Lukač, punched him a year ago behind the parliamentary rostrum, annoyed that Stanivuković was waving NATO flags in front of him.

When asked what the voters rewarded Stanivuković for, Huskić says:

"Draško Stanivuković showed above all personal courage, criticizing and attacking the SNSD openly and without fear. He also endured personal repression, he was arrested, but he persevered. He showed the citizens of Banja Luka that it is possible to fight against a systemic party and cartel, such as the SNSD. That, and the change in terms of political leadership, are the most important reasons for his success".

Ćerimagić agrees that the voters rewarded Stanivkovć's energy to stand up and ask difficult questions to Dodik and SNSD members.

"The questions related to nepotism, corruption and misuse of public functions and funds. He didn't shy away from filming them, and because of that he often ended up in the police or in the hospital."

Ćerimagić says that Stanivuković said during the campaign that the symbols of the city of Banja Luka must reflect the current ethnic majority and be the four 'S'.

"However, Stanivuković did not build his campaign on the fact that Radojičić is a non-Serb or that he should be voted for in order to defend endangered Serbianness, but on the story of nepotism, corruption and misuse of public money by Radojičić's party. Also, he extended his hand to all those who were failed by the rule of law in BiH, above all to the family of David Dragičević".

Criminals hide behind inter-ethnic conflicts

When asked by "Vijesti" whether Srđan Mandić's victory in the Sarajevo municipality of Centar is a message that it is possible to overcome ethnic divisions and build a different BiH, Huskić answers:

“Absolutely. 65% of voters in the municipality of Centar voted for Srđan Mandić, who during the campaign was exposed to an incredible negative campaign orchestrated by the SDA. In addition, for the mayor of Sarajevo, the SDP, to whom that position went, plans to run for Bogić Bogićević, according to the information that is being speculated about in the public. This would mean that the mayor of Sarajevo and the head of the central Sarajevo municipality could be Serbs. As a citizen of Sarajevo, I have not been prouder of the city in which I live for a long time. More and more people, I believe, realize that inter-ethnic conflicts, which open up many very painful issues, have been usurped for a long time by ordinary criminals and thugs who hide behind them. Conflict has become an end in itself, but a potent tool for distracting attention and preventing discussion of life's issues. It will take a long time for many painful issues in BiH to be properly opened and discussed. But, before that, other things must be arranged," says Huskić.

When asked whether the trend of the weakening of nationalist parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina can be expected to continue and whether this outcome is a harbinger of bigger changes and a prelude to the general elections in 2022, Ivana Marić answers in the affirmative.

"If something unexpected does not happen by 2022, it is realistic to expect that the parties of the Four will take over power at higher levels as well." The same can be expected for the opposition parties in the RS, so in this way the conditions could be created for the government to be formed for the first time without a single party that exclusively plays the national card (SDA, HDZ and SNSD).

Huskić, on the other hand, believes that it is not a question of the weakening of nationalist parties and that nationalism did not play a significant role in these elections, primarily because these are local elections, and because the opposition in Sarajevo consists, in addition to civil parties, of very conservative parties. worldview.

"In the RS, on the other hand, the opposition has in its hands unquestionable nationalist identifications with the PDP, and especially with the SDS. With that, the essence of the political struggle was in fact reduced to a potent criticism of the usurpation of the state by political cartels, which the SDA and SNSD certainly are. These are parties that are completely devoid of ideological content (SNSD is nominally a social democratic party), for which both nationalism and ethnochauvinism are instruments for remaining in power, but in their essence they embody the concept of a captive state. Whether this trend can be transferred to the 2022 general elections will depend to a large extent on the performance and perception of the politics on which the previous opposition parties won the elections, but significant changes are looming in the domain of the ethno-nationalist parties, which now have a potent opposition. Of course, we should not ignore the potential for creating conflicts, which the SDA and SNSD (and HDZ) masterfully use, and which, as before, would successfully serve ethnic mobilization and discredit the opposition, Huskić told "Vijesti".

Stanivuković was taken into custody in Budva

In August, Stanivuković announced on Facebook that he was arrested for participating in a rally in Nikšić.

"I was just released from the police station and I have to leave Montenegro within an hour accompanied by the police and I am banned from entering for the next year. Unfortunately, I personally witnessed the violation of basic human and civil rights and religious freedom by the regime of Milo Đukanović. No surrender! Victory is the only option!'', he wrote on Facebook.

He was taken to the Budva police station for an informative interview. In the statement of the Police Administration, it was stated that it was established that he did not use the tourist stay for the purpose for which it was approved because he participated in a meeting that was not reported to the competent authorities and which is contrary to the order of the NKT in order to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Based on the Law on Foreigners, a decision was made on his expulsion from Montenegro and ban on entry for a year.

Dodik as the owner of Republika Srpska

Dodik admitted the election defeat, but also threatened that the Republika Srpska entity would stop "all investments" in Banja Luka.

“I think it's important to speak clearly. He has his responsibilities and represents the city, let him show off and work. He said that students and pensioners will get free city transport. Let him propose, we will support, but let's see how he will finance it. How will they finance the city heating that we subsidized every year. Why would Republika Srpska do that? We have other municipalities that need help. We will stop all investments from the RS level", said Dodik.

He said that he will not support the new mayor and that he will ask for his dismissal in the first year.

Huskić says that it is neither the first nor the last time that Dodik threatens citizens in municipalities who vote for opposition candidates in this way.

"He did this both during and after the local elections in 2016. In the 2018 elections, he threatened pensioners, workers of RITE Gacko, and even educators who announced protests because of the bad situation they are in. Dodik considers himself the owner of Republika Srpska, and the worst part is, that is not far from the truth. All RS institutions are subordinated to Dodik and turned into his service and his party's service, while the work of the RS National Assembly, in which he enjoyed a two-thirds majority until recently, is completely meaningless. In that sense, RS is very similar to Serbia. It is a phenomenon of comprehensive capture and subjugation of institutions to particular interests, in this case one person".