What does Biden's message mean: "Strengthening pressure on Serbia in conjunction with Germany"

The congratulation of the President of the United States of America (USA) on the occasion of Serbia's National Day caused numerous reactions.

"This means what we all knew," Boško Jakšič told Deutsche Welle (DW()): "The Biden administration in conjunction with Germany is increasing the pressure on Serbia."

A congratulatory letter stating that America supports the achievement of a "comprehensive normalization agreement with Kosovo, which is focused on mutual recognition", was not greeted with enthusiasm in Belgrade, but at the same time, through various statements by Serbian officials, attempts were made to diminish the importance of such a message.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia, Nikola Selaković, points out that "it is no surprise that the USA is seeking mutual recognition of Serbia and Kosovo, and that this is the position of American foreign policy".

Selaković added "that the USA has a position that it insists on, but that Serbia also has its own position that it insists on. Our position is clear, and it was expressed in the most important place in the world in September, which is the White House," said Selaković.

Vučić: There is nothing to confess

The mentioned statement suggests that such messages are not encouraging, but that they are nothing new, and that Serbia has repeatedly repeated its position that without compromise there will be no progress in solving the Kosovo problem.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, was responsible for a slightly harsher tone, who pointed out that "mutual recognition is not in any act of world organizations - not the EU, not in any resolution. There were attempts to impose that term as something that we should have accepted as a final solution in the Washington Agreement. I have already told them to their face what I think about mutual recognition and my answer will not be different. Serbia does not agree to that," said Vučić and emphasized that "he understands that this is the new American policy."

Vučić also said "that different ideas come to his mind so that he could congratulate the American president on the 4th of July, but that the most important thing is that he, as the president of Serbia, reacts responsibly and protects the interests of Serbia".

Misused greeting card?

Numerous analysts and political actors considered the fact that the topic of mutual recognition of Serbia and Kosovo was included in the greeting card for Serbia's Statehood Day as an undiplomatic act.

Vladislav Jovanović, the former ambassador of Yugoslavia to the UN, says that "asking Serbia to devote itself to solving the Kosovo issue in the coming period in a way that is contrary to national and state interests and its Constitution, is something that is not common and is not good to be found in any diplomatic textbook as an example of a holiday greeting to a country".

The President of the Committee of the Serbian Assembly for Kosovo and Metohija (KiM) Milovan Drecun also notes that "if you congratulate someone on Statehood Day, and ask him to separate from part of his territory, then this is the opposite of what good wishes are. But we should not be particularly surprised by this attitude of Biden".

Increased pressure on Serbia

Most of the reactions in Belgrade, however, emphasize that the American position on inter-subnational recognition is expected and that it is illusory to think that the major world powers will change their position on the issue of Kosovo.

As foreign policy commentator Boško Jakšić points out for DW, "that sentence means what we all knew, which is that the Biden administration, especially in conjunction with Germany, will only increase the pressure on Serbia."

Jakšić sees the reaction of the Serbian authorities, especially President Aleksandar Vučić, as "his honest admission that he is not comfortable with this situation. It is clear that he will increasingly have to engage in direct confrontation and tell his opponents to the face, as he puts it, that there is nothing to gain from recognition. This in a way calls into question the future dialogue between Belgrade and Priština, because it is increasingly concentrating on one topic, and on that topic, the positions are diametrically opposed2, points out Jakšić.

The US position remains unchanged

"The only thing I don't understand is why Vučić stated that this is a "new American policy", adds Jakšić, and notes that "it is true that Donald Trump actually used Kosovo for his Middle Eastern policy, but that the American position on the necessity of recognizing Kosovo has been the same since Bill Clinton".

"It seems to me that Vučić was delighted by the mere fact that the Trump administration wants to talk and that it wants to listen to what Serbia has to say. The American position on the recognition of Kosovo was pushed into the background. The fact that someone wants to listen to what Serbia has to say was presented as a great success and a reason for enthusiasm, to me, it does not seem like serious diplomacy," the foreign policy commentator notes.

Know what awaits you

Boško Jakšić sees the comments that the National Day greeting card is not the right place to send such political messages as "a less important moment related to some kind of diplomatic etiquette".

"More important than that is that Belgrade can no longer complain about the lack of openness in Washington's position. Therefore, Washington also used this congratulatory message to make it clear what its position is and to tell Belgrade, 'Gentlemen, this is our position and if you want to talk, prepare yourself and know what you are doing'. If this may be a violation of some diplomatic etiquette, on the other hand, it is also a slightly unusual degree of diplomatic openness," concludes Boško Jakšić.