Statements by the political leaders of Bosnia and Herzegovina about redrawing borders and a new war represent another attempt to divert attention from existential issues.
This is what Srđan Blagovčanin, chairman of the board of directors of Transparency International Bosnia and Herzegovina, told "Vijesti".
In a wave of tension caused by a controversial document attributed to Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša, Bosnian Serb political leaders have announced that they will launch an initiative for talks with Bosniaks and Croats about the future of the country.
The Chairman of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Milorad Dodik, and his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), started a campaign on YouTube a few days ago with the aim of promoting views on "peaceful disassociation" in BiH. The leaders of Republika Srpska met on Tuesday to discuss this in Mrakovica's villa in Kozara.
Dodik said that the RS does not want war and invited the representatives of the Federation of BiH and the other two nations to talks, adding that the goal of the talks is to find a balanced solution that would satisfy everyone - both the entities and the constituent nations.
"This is our response to calls for war from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina," he said after the meeting.
He alluded to the statement of the leader of the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Bakir Izetbegović, who said on Tuesday that he is not sure that there will be no war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He added that his father Alijah was transferred when he said there would be no war, and then the war happened.
“I won't say it. Because it doesn't depend on Alija or Bakir," said Izetbegović in an interview with Sarajevo's "O Kanal".
He answered in the affirmative to the journalist's question whether he is ready to stand in front of the people, if there is a war.
“Absolutely! Absolutely! "I would rather die today than allow genocidals to take over a part of Bosnia and Herzegovina," said the leader of the SDA.
The SDA previously announced that a peaceful breakup of Bosnia and Herzegovina is not possible, warning all those who advocate it that the consequence could be war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the region, and chainwise throughout Europe.
When asked by "Vijesti" whether the statements of Dodik and Izetbegović are another attempt to divert attention from existential topics, Blagovčanin says:
"Exactly. And it's incredible that after 25 years, no one understands that story in any way other than as an unscrupulous manipulation in which only the two of them have an interest. The level of arrogance and unscrupulousness of the ruling cartel made up of three ethno-national elites has been unmatched in Europe for decades. Manipulative practices, deceptions and replacement of theses led to perfection, and the country to the very edge of elementary functioning, and the population to a situation of dramatic threat to life and health".
On the day when 86 people died in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the RS borrowed 300 million euros on the London Stock Exchange, the main topics of coalition partners Dodik and Izetbegović are war and disunification, Blagovčanin points out.
"So, the two of them, who are unable to ensure the elementary functions that the state should provide to the population in peace, such as the procurement of vaccines for example, and who brought the state to the very edge of economic survival, and corruption to the level of absurdity, would placed at the head of the people in war, in the case of Izetbegović, or peacefully separated, in the case of Dodik".
Unorganized citizens believe in change less and less
Blagovčanin is the author of the publication "Rule of the Cartel" about the phenomenon of hybrid regimes, captive states and cartelization of politics. It states that the ethno-national elites in Bosnia and Herzegovina have created a hybrid regime based on a brutal logic according to which a narrow circle of the political elite gets extremely rich by extracting public resources, while the overall negative consequences of such a situation are distributed to disenfranchised citizens. Blagovčanin says that collective action that would lead to regime change is prevented by the strategy of divide and rule, which deepens ethnic tensions.
Blagovčanin told "Vijesta" that he sees a chance to change the status quo, which is the main interest of the ruling cartel.
"But the bad news or the good news, depending on which perspective you look at it, is that no one from the outside will do it. It's all up to the citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The matter is very simple - for change to happen, someone has to ask for it. The probability of change is determined by how well the demands for change are articulated, how organized and strong those who set them are to persevere in their intentions".
Blagovčanin also says that there should be no illusions that changing the status quo will be easy.
"The country has been almost completely devastated by decades of mismanagement, systemic corruption, mass brain drain, uncontrolled borrowing and a completely collapsed economy. On the one hand is the unscrupulous ruling cartel, which controls institutions, budgets, the economy and is ready to do anything to preserve its primary interest - the status quo, and on the other hand there are fewer and fewer unorganized citizens who have less and less faith that change is possible, especially that they can influence it to happen," he says.
The meeting of the leaders of the Republika Srpska followed after the non-paper with the proposal to redraw the borders in the former Yugoslavia increased tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Janša reportedly sent the document to the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, as a proposal for solving the region's problems after Slovenia takes over the presidency of the European Union in July.
It cites the unresolved national issues of Serbs, Croats and Albanians as the main obstacles to faster integration of the Balkans into the EU, which should be resolved by the creation of Greater Serbia, Greater Albania and Greater Croatia.
A new Berlin Congress is needed for non-paper ideas
When asked by "Vijesti" whether it is a trial balloon in order to see the reactions of others in the region as well as foreign factors interested in the Balkans or a lot of noise about nothing, Blagovčanin says that the Neue-Paper is "complete nonsense". "In order for any of what is stated there to happen, at least an international conference in the format of the Berlin Congress is needed. No one serious in the international community even mentions it, so any discussion on the subject is a waste of time. Only the ruling ethno-national elites are interested in publishing non-papers, so that the focus of attention is diverted from corruption, indebtedness, endangering the lives and health of the population and the continuation of the decline of the state, for which they bear the greatest and direct responsibility". The document was perceived in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a new threat to its territorial integrity, this time from some EU members.
Neither EU institutions nor any politician has confirmed that non-paper exists.
In videos posted by the SNSD on YouTube, Dodik and others say that "the independent Republika Srpska has become a solution that is being talked about more and more openly around the world" and that "a peaceful separation is the only solution for this and such BiH".
"Let's talk about Dayton, the Constitution, without foreigners, and let's respect that agreement. We don't want any incitement to violence or imposition of any problems," said Dodik after the meeting in Mrakovica.
The meeting was also attended by the President of the RS Željka Cvijanović, the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of BiH Zoran Tegeltija, as well as the other leaders of the parties that make up the ruling coalition in the RS - Socialist Party Petar Đokić, Demosa Nedeljko Čubrilović, United Srpska Nenad Stevandić, NDP Dragan Čavić and the People's Party. Serbian Darko Banjac.
Misuse of public resources in the service of staying in power
Blagovčanin points out that the multi-year practice of divide and conquer has proven to be more than successful for the ruling cartel, which keeps its ethnic groups homogenized through manipulations and constant creation of artificial crises.
"We should not lose sight of the very questionable legitimacy of the ruling cartel, bearing in mind the completely collapsed integrity of the election, due to fraud and threats in the election process itself, due to massive misuse of public resources in such a way that they are used to preserve the government, such as mobilizing voters by awarding jobs in the public sector and awarding public procurement contracts to companies close to the ruling parties through which money is extracted".
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