Although the SNS (Serbian Progressive Party) list achieved a worse result in the republican elections in Serbia than in previous years and does not have a sufficient majority of deputies to independently form a government, and it is considered that this has increased the coalition and even "blackmail" potential of the socialists, Aleksandar Vučić has "reserve composition" of MPs on other lists, above all the lists of Zavetnik and the NADA coalition, with which, together with the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians, SNS could form a stable majority, unofficial sources from the research and publishing center Demostat told the Belgrade newspaper Danas.
"We believe that Vučić, as in the past republican elections, on certain lists - above all the list of the Serbian Party Zavetnici, the list of the NADA coalition and in the second faction of POKS, which is in alliance with Dveri, there are people who are closer to Vučić than to the leaders of those parties," Demostat explains.
They remind that in the last elections such a case was with Aleksandar Šapić's SPAS, that is, individuals from that list who received parliamentary mandates, and later the entire SPAS collectively joined the SNS.
"Vučić made a reserve list, it is his reserve composition in the Assembly with which he can form a government if the SPS demands too much. The SNS can certainly have a majority and only on the basis of a coalition with the Union of Vojvodina Hungarians, but I do not believe that he will form the Government to 126, 127 MPs, especially in these circumstances," Danas interlocutors stated.
However, that does not mean that Ivica Dačić's Socialists, that is, the parliamentary list of the coalition around the SPS, have been written off and are going into opposition.
"Despite the number of MPs and the electoral math itself, in these geopolitical circumstances - pronounced tensions between the West and Russia due to the war in Ukraine - Vučić will not be able to form a government without the SPS. The role of foreign factors will be crucial," said Demostat.
This actually means that the socialists cannot have the "blackmailing" potential attributed to them in certain media and analyzes of the previous days, and this potential is diminished by the statements of the highest officials of the SNS.
Starting with the statement of Zorana Mihajlović, a member of the SNS Presidency, who said that Ivica Dačić cannot be the Prime Minister of Serbia, to the statement of Ana Brnabić, the SNS commissioner for Belgrade, who attributed the "blame" for the poor result of the SNS in the capital to the socialists. that is, she stated that they "betrayed the team".
But exactly the opposite of what the former Prime Minister of Serbia says, Demostat believes that the "success" of the socialists in Belgrade is crucial for further agreements between the two branches of the current government.
"Maybe Dacic won't be prime minister, but that doesn't mean the socialists won't get the post of mayor. It's now a matter of trade. In addition, Vučić is aware that without Dacic's support, he wouldn't have won the first round of the presidential election," Danas sources say.
Although it does not have as much "blackmail" potential as is attributed to it, the SPS has a "coalition" potential to talk even with the opposition, especially in Belgrade, and therefore the SNS president will carefully weigh how and with whom he will form the government, according to Demostat.
"The SPS can even talk to the opposition for the next elections, and they could be very soon, as we hear requests from certain officials, even from the SNS itself. Dacic can be acceptable even to the West if he likened, that is, reduced support for Russia", Demostat for Danas point out.
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