The fact that none of the expectations of the countries of the Western Balkans were met at the summit in Brussels is the expected huge disappointment of all six countries, and the European Union, as the main actor in the region that influences political processes, is becoming a thing of the past, Adnan Ćerimagić, senior analyst, told "Vijesti" European Stability Initiative (ESI) from Berlin.
"After almost three months of listening to messages from EU officials during their visit to the region that the EU must learn lessons and change its approach and that they want to dynamize the process of all six WB countries, the result is that during the summit that was announced as historic, as a turning point in EU relations according to the region, none of the six countries received anything concrete except a very general message that the member countries want to speed up the enlargement process," said Ćerimagić.
The leaders of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia returned empty-handed from the summit with EU leaders, which was held in Brussels on Thursday. The EU reiterated a promise made nearly two decades ago to grant membership to Balkan states once they implement deep economic, judicial and political reforms.
Srđan Cvijić, a member of the Advisory Group for Public Policy of the Balkans in Europe (BiEPAG), believes that at this moment there was no political will to take advantage of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and to start the work that should have been done a long time ago.
"I would first of all attribute it to the lack of statesmanship of certain European leaders. There were also countries like Austria and Slovenia that sincerely advocated for e.g. BiH to be given candidate status, but that did not happen, instead a 'Solomon' solution was found to The burden of responsibility is once again transferred to the European Commission, which is expected to precisely define the criteria that BiH should meet, so that it hopes to receive candidate status by the end of the year.
When asked whether the policy of expansion to the Western Balkans has come to an end, Cvijić says:
"I wouldn't say it like that, but the fact is that with the current decision-making system, it is not realistic that we will see any progress when it comes to expansion".
Ćerimagić, on the other hand, assesses that the EU's policy towards the Balkans, which includes the enlargement policy, "certainly reached the bottom yesterday".
"None of the six countries received any encouragement, and the EU was left without the slightest credibility and credibility on the Council of Europe, without the possibility to influence the situation in the region, and in the next few months, next winter, we expect the economic consequences of the pandemic as well as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and everything that goes along with it at the global level, hit the WB countries and the rest of the world in a hard way. It's like a call to all the fans of Vladimir Putin and strong nationalist leaders who can use yesterday's summit and the overall attitude of the EU towards the region as a tool in in the struggle to reach positions or in the struggle to win their narrative in the region and then potentially lead the region, without the influence of the EU, in a very bad direction".
In Brussels, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama expressed his disappointment with the Union's attitude towards the region's European integration, stating that the problem is not only Bulgaria, which is holding back North Macedonia, but that the EU is tired of enlargement.
After the summit, at a joint press conference with the leaders of Serbia and North Macedonia, Aleksandar Vučić and Dimitra Kovačevski, he said that North Macedonia has been waiting 17 years for the opening of negotiations, and Albania for eight years.
"From a common vision and community, the EU has become an instrument for individual members to stop something. The story with Bulgaria is a shame. One country imposes something of its own, and the other 26 cannot do anything about it. There are many allegations that Putin is sick, but I can't say that this house seems healthy here," said Rama.
"Even the pandemic ... threats of war have failed to unite them, Rama said of the disunity of EU leaders, referring to the war in Ukraine.
When asked by "Vijesti" whether the blocking of the accession process gives legitimacy to the narrative of Vučić and Rama that they do not need Europe and will go their own way, Cvijić points out:
"Of course, he will use it for his own needs, and they do that a lot. But it is a fact that the setback when it comes to democracy and the rule of law in the region is used in certain member countries to put a brake on the enlargement. The blame is mutual, it is on the side of the opponent expansion in Europe, but it can also be found among false reformers in the Balkans".
Ćerimagić's impression is that both Rama and Vučić are saying that they are ready for the path to EU membership if the EU wants it and that the EU's inability to make decisions regarding the Central Bank allows all the politicians of the region who want to say "we would implement reforms, but we cannot because the EU doesn't want us".
He adds that it also opens up space for politicians, not necessarily those who are currently in power, but for some future ones, who will say "the EU has failed you, there is nothing from the EU, let's turn to a completely different concept" ... why is one of the options the Open Balkans, where the three countries say they want to work on economic integration and mutual political cooperation, but in a way that suits them.
"There are other options in Serbia, which speak of the need to unify the Serbian world, the need to change borders, recompose the region and use this vacuum to achieve old anachronistic nationalist goals."
The blame is mutual, it is on the side of the opponents of enlargement in Europe, but it can also be found with false reformers in the Balkans, says Cvijić
Ćerimagić and Cvijić also spoke to "Vijesti" about whether the EU will have to change the way it functions in order to remain coherent and how realistic it is to expect that they will change the decision-making process on key issues - by qualified majority instead of unanimity.
The principle of unanimity often hampers the EU's ambitions because member states can block decisions or dilute them.
"Without the introduction of qualified majority voting at all successive steps in the enlargement process (except at the beginning and at the end because no member state would waive that right) we will hardly see any progress. We have seen two successive German governments in favor of this France is also advocating, and recently, in this context, Ursula von der Leyen (EC president) also advocated for the introduction of qualified majority voting," said Cvijić.
Ćerimagić says that this is an important topic considering that Russia's invasion of Ukraine focused attention on the way of decision-making within the EU regarding foreign and security policy, and in this sense we should expect the bloc to deal with it.
"Whether that will happen, from the experience of the WB countries and the fact that for five years we have not had any important EU decisions when it comes to this, it is clear that there is room for skepticism".
Commenting on how much blocking the EU accession process opens up space for "third party" influence, as warned by the Prime Minister of North Macedonia and the President of Kosovo during the summit, Ćerimagić says:
"The lack of progress in the EU enlargement process and the collapse of the bloc's credibility in the region first of all create space for politicians and politicians who base their countries' vision of the future not necessarily as EU members but as its neighbors who have a certain level of trade relations with the EU, but which some strategic goals must also be achieved in cooperation with other countries that show interest. I am not necessarily referring to Russia, but above all to closer regional actors such as Turkey, but also to global actors such as China, the USA, and the United Kingdom. In this sense, they will try to do exactly what some politicians in the region are already doing, which is to try to balance but also to get as much as they can from those actors," he believes.
"It is clear that the absence of a decision yesterday and the making of big promises that do not come true, the European Union as the main actor in the region that influences political processes, is becoming a thing of the past," Ćerimagić pointed out.
Srđan Cvijić points out that the blockade of the enlargement process gives the wind behind Russian influence and all Eurosceptics in the Balkans. "They would have to know that in Brussels," he concludes.
"The past and present of the Balkans is the future of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia"
Six years since the British voted to leave the EU, Ukraine and Moldova have been granted candidate status. Georgia was told that she would be rewarded in the same way when she met additional conditions.
Asked whether the act of granting candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova is only symbolic and whether it should be separated from the issue of the Western Balkans, Ćerimagić says:
"The act of granting candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova is in no way premature or "positive discrimination" in relation to the WB, but is precisely the way in which the enlargement process should function and in which it functioned in the 1990s and 2000s. Will the granting of candidate status remains symbolic and involves those countries in the process in which the WB countries are, but also Turkey, which is a never-ending process, remains to be seen".
Cvijić believes that granting status is mostly symbolic. "Our past and present in the Balkans is the future of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia if things remain as they are now".
Despite the waves of crises that have engulfed the EU, since migration and Britain's exit, the bloc is still popular. A European Parliament survey published on Wednesday showed that approval of EU membership across the bloc's member states is at its highest level in 15 years.
However, public dissatisfaction is growing due to inflation and the energy crisis, while Russia is reducing gas supplies in response to Western sanctions.
The Bulgarian parliament approved the lifting of the veto on North Macedonia
Yesterday, the Parliament of Bulgaria gave the green light to the government to approve the negotiation framework for North Macedonia's EU membership.
Bulgaria's veto due to disputes over language and history blocks the start of negotiations with Skopje from the end of 2020, and Albania's progress on the road to the EU is linked to the progress of North Macedonia.
Lawmakers voted to allow the government to lift the veto after changes to the framework text that would guarantee the rights of Bulgarians in the country through constitutional changes and oblige Skopje to maintain good relations with Bulgaria, Reuters reported.
The framework should also not contain any reference that could suggest that Bulgaria recognizes the Macedonian language, according to the conditions attached to the approval.
The compromise was proposed by France, which currently holds the EU presidency.
"This is the best offer that Bulgaria has received so far. It provides European guarantees that Bulgarian interests will be protected," said Elisaveta Belobradova, a member of the Democratic Bulgaria party.
However, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia, Dimitar Kovačevski, rejected the French proposal on Thursday.
"The proposal in its current form is unacceptable for me, for the President of the State, the Government, the coalition partners and for the citizens of the Republic of North Macedonia. If an understanding of our positions is reached during the French presidency, we are ready to engage in discussions in order to start negotiations in June," he said in Brussels at a press conference with Vučić and Ram.
Kirill Petkov's government was toppled on Wednesday after his shaky coalition lost its majority amid accusations, among other things, that it was neglecting national interests and pressuring Skopje to lift its veto.
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