If it does not accept the French-German plan for the normalization of relations with Kosovo, Serbia will be seen as a disruptive factor in the region, and its orientation is definitely non-European, Igor Bandović, director of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy, told "Vijesti".
"Let me remind you that Serbia is currently not opening chapters or progressing in the process of European integration due to the non-introduction of sanctions against Russia. Failure to accept the plan would result in further distance from the European Union, reduced inflow of investments, and if it continued its policy towards Kosovo and Russia as before, this government would experience complete isolation at a later stage, and perhaps the fate of Turkey as far as European integration is concerned. ", says Bandović. He believes that Kosovo is in a different situation because of the role of the international community itself in Kosovo, because they have a much greater influence on the decisions of the authorities in Pristina.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said that five Western envoys told him that Serbia will face serious consequences if it does not accept the proposal to resolve the Kosovo issue.
When asked by "Vijesti" whether he thinks there is personal pressure from the international community on Vučić, Bandović answered:
"Since the president of Serbia often equates his position with the position of the entire country, and he does so in the case of Kosovo, and at the same time he is the only negotiator and only he makes key decisions, the negotiations regarding acceptance into the Franco-German plan almost certainly have personal characteristics and a personal character." .
Europe's two most important countries are on a mission to resolve a crisis that could destabilize the entire region and aim to show their determination not to allow another crisis on the continent.
Fatmir Seholi, director of the Pristina Institute for the Affirmation of Inter-Ethnic Relations, told "Vijesti" that non-acceptance of the Franco-German document for Serbia would mean the introduction of visas for its citizens, the total isolation of Serbia from foreign investments, the isolation of the government in Belgrade, the introduction of harsh sanctions...
For Kosovo, Seholi believes, it would also mean isolation from foreign investments, prolongation of recognition of Kosovo's independence from the five EU members, postponement of visa liberalization as well as blocking of the European integration process.
Kosovo and Serbia should declare by March whether they accept the international plan for the normalization of relations or face consequences from the European Union and the United States, Miroslav Lajčak, the EU's special representative for dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, said on Wednesday.
Envoys from the EU, USA, Germany, France and Italy met last Sunday with Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Aljbin Kurti in an attempt to convince them to sign an 11-point plan aimed at calming the tensions that have persisted since the 1998-99 war in Kosovo.
When asked what will happen if one side does not accept the plan, Lajčak said in an interview for the Pristina television Kljan Kosova: "The international community must respond in an appropriate way and will support one side more, or will reduce support for the other side."
He said that if any party expressly rejects the agreement, it will suffer a drop in political and economic support, as well as a reduction in new investments from the West.
Part of the solution or problem
"There is a natural deadline or timetable because by March we will know whether we are making progress or not, and if we are not making progress, we will know why we are not making progress, who is responsible for it," he said.
"We are all part of the wider international community and it is really important whether they see you as part of the solution or part of the problem, because that is how the international community treats you."
The Franco-German plan, which became known in the autumn of last year, was never officially published, but its key points have been known since it was delivered to the Serbian and Kosovo sides. The plan does not require Serbia to recognize the independence of its former province, but it would have to stop lobbying against Kosovo's membership in international bodies. The proposal envisages the exchange of permanent missions, which will be established in the seat of government of the two countries.
According to this proposal, Serbia would recognize the territorial integrity of Kosovo, symbols of the state of Kosovo, passports, license plates, and the representation would also be raised to the level of ambassadors of both countries, says Seholi.
Kurti hinted that he might accept the plan, but not the 2013 Brussels Agreement, which was adopted before he came to power, and which provides for the formation of the Community of Municipalities with a Serbian majority (CMU). The plan requires both sides to implement previous agreements, but Kurti says the 2013 agreement would violate Kosovo's sovereignty by creating a mini-state within the country, a claim rejected by Western mediators.
After a meeting with Western envoys last Sunday, Vučić did not say whether Serbia would approve the plan, but said it would be economically and politically lost if it did not continue on the European path. He told reporters that "it would be a matter of Sunday" when Serbia's visa-free regime with the EU would be lifted if he told the Western Five in Belgrade on Friday that he did not want to discuss the Franco-German plan for Kosovo.
"If you do not accept it, and we believe that it must be accepted, you will face the interruption of the European integration process, the stopping and withdrawal of investments and comprehensive measures in the political and economic sense that will cause great damage to Serbia. This was repeated to me three times during the conversation," said Vučić about the conversations he had with the representatives of the EU, USA, Italy, France and Germany.
According to him, the EU plan for Kosovo has actually become a new negotiating framework for Serbia in the process of European integration. Vučić added that now there is a big fight for the Association of Serbian Municipalities and that he expects it to be formed in the next few months.
What would the formation of ZSO mean for Serbs
When asked by "Vijesti" how much Kurti is ready for a compromise and how realistic it is that he will accept the proposal on ZSO, Igor Bandović says:
"The Prime Minister of Kosovo has so far shown himself to be a dogmatic politician who is not inclined to compromise. In the two years he has been in power, he has lost the sympathy of many Western countries because of this attitude. I think that, regardless of his readiness, and especially if Serbia accepts the Franco-German plan, his room for maneuver is very narrow. Let me remind you, the international community has already managed to overthrow his government once because of non-cooperation in the dialogue with Serbia. This also applies to ZSO".
Seholi believes that Kurti should implement the international obligations that Kosovo undertook in Brussels and that in accordance with the constitution of Kosovo, it should form the ZSO.
"If he is not ready as a statesman to implement what was signed in Brussels, he should return the mandate to the citizens of Kosovo and let's go to new parliamentary elections," says Seholi.
Whether the formation of the ZSO would help the Serbs in Kosovo live better, "to a large extent depends on the guarantees that the ZSO will receive for its functioning, on the relations that Serbia and Kosovo will build in the future, as well as on the democratic and European path of the entire region, he assessed. Bandovic.
"The formation of the ZSO is an international obligation that, according to the constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, will enable the Serbian community to gain an even more affirmative participation in the state of Kosovo, which means a better life. No one should be afraid that the affirmation of minorities can threaten the foundations of the state. On the contrary, Kosovo will send a message of an affirmative concept to democratic states," says Fatmir Seholi.
Asked if accepting the agreement would mean the end of Serbia's balancing between East and West, the director of the Belgrade Center for Security Policy says that it could mean the beginning of the end of balancing, but that it does not mean that Serbia will immediately impose sanctions on Russia.
"This issue is something that definitely does not follow the issue of accepting the agreement, at least it is not yet evident from the statements of Serbian officials," says Bandović.
It is unrealistic to expect carrots
Commenting on the fact that Serbia and Kosovo were not offered any concrete incentives to accept the agreement, Bandović points out that in a situation where the war in Europe continues with unforeseeable consequences for the security of the entire continent, it is not realistic to expect "carrots" for the two negotiating parties.
He reminds that the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia has been going on for 12 years, and that the situation has not improved in recent years, but has worsened.
"Incidents and violence, threats of armed conflicts, have become a reality. In this case, the two most important countries of Europe are on the job of solving a continuous crisis that can lead to the instability of the entire region. That is why they did not come to give gifts for the success of a decidedly unsuccessful process so far, but to show their determination not to allow another crisis in Europe, again. So in this context, patience no longer exists, and incentives are possibly left for the success of the process, not for its new beginning."
Seholi, who says that incentives "should be earned, and not try to avoid unpopular decisions", is sure that, if an agreement is reached, the EU and the USA will reward Kosovo and Serbia as well.
Igor Bandović believes that what the agreement would definitely change from Serbia's current position is "the acceptance of Kosovo as a fact that has its own subjectivity and constitutional prerogatives, which is a position that is certainly closer to reality, and further from the myth that exists about Kosovo in Serbia ".
Seholi, on the other hand, believes that the acceptance of the Franco-German document would mean "one hundred percent that Serbia de facto recognizes Kosovo, because according to that proposal, Serbia would recognize the territorial integrity of Kosovo, symbols of the state of Kosovo, passports, plates, and there would also be an increase in representation to the level of ambassadors of both countries". He adds that it would not be a classic de jure confession, but it would be a prelude to it.
Prime Minister Kurti is the exact opposite of oppositionist Kurti
When asked how much support the Kosovo Prime Minister enjoys, Fatmir Seholi says that Kurti gained popularity solely because of the long rule of today's opposition parties and used it to make a political breakthrough after the departure of the main political actors in Kosovo to The Hague.
"Today's Prime Minister Kurti is the total opposite of Kurti from the opposition. Today's Kurti no longer has the huge support he had two years ago," says the Pristina analyst.
On Thursday in Pristina, Kurti said that Kosovo will not tolerate the JSO being a precondition for reaching the Franco-German proposal for an agreement with Serbia. He said that the western plan in the center should have mutual recognition because only in this way is it possible to completely normalize the relations between Kosovo and Serbia. Kurti pointed out that there are no Serb municipalities in Kosovo, but municipalities where Serbs are the majority population, adding that the Constitution of Kosovo does not allow association on an ethnic basis.
Lajčak convinces five EU members to accept the proposal
Lajčak stated that he started the mission of meeting with EU countries that do not recognize Kosovo, to convince them to accept the "European proposal", and that there are positive messages that four out of five of these countries see that it is important that "the process brings results".
"I met with representatives of four of the five countries in the last two days to discuss this proposal. I met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Spain, Slovakia and Cyprus, with the special envoy of Greece and I will meet with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Romania. These countries are following the process very closely, because the issue of Kosovo and Serbia is a regional issue," he said.
When asked by "VIjesti" whether it is possible to expect a change in the attitude of the five EU members who do not recognize Kosovo, Bandović says that these countries also want peace and stability in the region and support the resolution of relations between Serbia and Kosovo as soon as possible, but that this does not mean that these countries will recognize Kosovo. "It depends on their state interests, which each country will assess at its own discretion," Bandović points out.
The USA supports Serbia's future in the EU
US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill said on Tuesday that Washington supports Serbia's intention to follow the international plan to normalize relations with Kosovo and eventually join the EU.
"It's really about the future of Serbia and the relations that Serbia needs," Hill told reporters in Belgrade.
He added that Vučić clearly said in his speech that Serbia sees its future in the European Union.
"I want to be very clear that the US is very supportive of that future," Hill said.
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