The agreement in principle between Serbia and Kosovo under the auspices of the European Union marks a quiet victory for the West in the competition with Russia for influence in Belgrade, according to Reuters.
President Aleksandar Vučić, trying to balance deep cultural and religious ties with Russia on the one hand and Euro-Atlantic integration on the other, has not made much effort to oppose pro-Russian agitation in Serbia since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, for fear of losing public support, he says. Reuters.
However, the West is making subtle moves to expand trade ties with Serbia, reducing its dependence on Russian energy supplies and easing tensions with Kosovo.
Recalling that the Kremlin has been a powerful ally of Serbia for more than two decades in opposition to the rebellion in Kosovo in 1998-99, and then to its independence in 2008, Reuters points out that ending the crisis between Serbia and Kosovo, which is a condition for their potential membership in the EU, would remove a large part of Moscow's influence on Belgrade.
"Russia's overall actions and goal in relations with Serbia are to keep it out of NATO and the EU," said Maksim Samorukov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Not wanting to alienate the EU, Belgrade condemned Russia's invasion in the United Nations and other international forums, recognized Ukraine's pre-war borders, sent Kyiv humanitarian and infrastructure aid, and accepted refugees, both Ukrainian and Russian.
Ending the crisis between Serbia and Kosovo would remove a large part of Moscow's influence on Belgrade
However, Serbia's refusal to join Western sanctions against Russia has drawn criticism. Prime Minister Ana Brnabić said last month that Serbia has taken huge steps on the way to the EU, but that Brussels is asking for more.
"It seems that the degree of compliance with the EU's European foreign and security policy, that is, the introduction of sanctions against Russia, is a condition of all conditions," she told reporters.
At the beginning of February, Vučić warned the members of the Serbian Parliament that, if they do not accept the EU plan, Belgrade's negotiations with that bloc will be stopped and pre-accession funds will be denied. Opposition nationalist MPs shouted "treason" and there was a scuffle with MPs from the ruling coalition.
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The text of the proposal for the Agreement on the Road to Normalization between Kosovo and Serbia was published on Monday evening after the meeting between Vučić and Kosovo Prime Minister Aljbin Kurti in Brussels.
Under the new deal, Serbia does not recognize Kosovo as an independent state, but will recognize official documents such as passports, diplomas and license plates and will not block its former province's membership in any international organization.
Kosovo agrees to "ensure an appropriate level of self-governance" for its Serb community. However, it is expected that the details of that arrangement, as well as other disputed issues, will be part of the annex on the implementation of the agreement and previous obligations.
The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said that the leaders of Serbia and Kosovo supported the plan, but that more discussions are needed on its implementation. He said that the annex on implementation is an integral part of the agreement and that it still needs to be finalized.
Vučić and Kurti should continue negotiations on March 18 in Skopje.
The President of Serbia said on Tuesday that nothing was agreed in Brussels and that there will be many more talks, and that by completely rejecting the EU proposal, Serbia would become a "pariah". He emphasized that it is important to consider what the consequences of rejecting that plan would be: "stopping European integration, which means the end of further investments, increasing the level of unemployment, and we only have about 80.000 people working in German companies".
Given the highly divided public opinion, Vučić's strategy is to avoid offending Moscow and to cultivate good relations while taking gradual steps towards separating Serbia from Russia in various aspects, from the economy to security cooperation.
He said earlier this month that an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is expected in the next five to six months, and that due to geopolitical events, Serbia will find itself between a "hammer and an anvil" and that there will be pressure on it when it comes to its relationship with Russia and Kosovo to be incomparably stronger.
The Belgrade Demostat 2022 survey showed that almost 80 percent of Serbs oppose sanctions against Russia. A separate survey conducted by CRTA showed that 61 percent of citizens believe that Serbia should preserve good relations with Moscow even at the cost of ties with the EU. A government-sponsored poll showed that 43 percent of Serbs would vote for EU membership, and 32 percent against it.
Given such divided public opinion, Vučić's strategy is to avoid offending Moscow and to cultivate good relations "while taking gradual steps towards separating Serbia from Russia in various aspects, from economy to security cooperation", according to Samorukov.
Economic distancing
Serbia has long been almost completely dependent on cheap Russian gas. NIS, its leading oil and gas production and processing company, is majority owned by Russia's Gazprom and Gazpromneft.
Reuters writes that there is also a quiet change.
Last year, in accordance with EU sanctions, Serbia stopped importing Russian crude oil and switched mainly to Iraqi supplies, and is also working with Bulgaria on the construction of a gas pipeline that would transport natural and liquid gas from Greece and Turkey.
Serbia would not suffer much if it imposed sanctions on Russia because it would easily find alternative markets for its goods
Belgrade will still need Russian gas, but it is unlikely that Russia will stop the supply, according to Saša Đogović, an analyst at the Institute for Market Research.
"Moscow will not risk such a drastic step because then it could lose its popularity in Serbia," Đogović told Reuters.
Russia is still the fourth largest trade partner of Serbia - behind Germany, Hungary and China and, with a share of 4,1 percent in total foreign exports of Serbia and 7,5 percent in total imports in 2022, but the EU as a whole is its the biggest investor and benefactor.
On Tuesday in Belgrade, Vučić, after signing the agreement on the first tranche of EU grant aid for the construction of the section of the Belgrade-Niš high-speed railway, with a total value of 610 million euros, said that Serbia would not be able to change for the better without EU help. He pointed out that since 2000, the EU has provided aid of 420 million euros for infrastructure projects in Serbia.
Serbia mainly exports agricultural products and consumer goods to Russia, as well as timber and tires, but "it would not suffer much" if it joined the sanctions against Moscow because it would easily find alternative markets for its goods, Djogovic said.
They also suffer from military ties
The Reuters analysis states that the war in Ukraine and Serbia's cooperation with NATO are also disrupting the traditional military ties between Belgrade and Moscow.
US and EU sanctions mean that Serbia can no longer send its fighter planes or helicopters, based on former Soviet technology, to Russia for overhaul, nor can it buy new weapons from Russia.
After acquiring Airbus helicopters and surface-to-air missiles of the French Mistral system, Serbia also plans to buy French Rafale fighter planes and suicide drones from the United Arab Emirates.
Reuters reports that the Serbian army is now aligned with NATO standards and included in the Western military alliance's Partnership for Peace program.
Vučić has repeatedly said that EU membership is Serbia's strategic goal and that relations with the West will bring benefits such as new jobs, investments and a better standard of living.
"Hybrid Occupation"
Despite Belgrade's shift towards the West, pro-Russian sentiment is still strongly felt in politics and on the streets.
Reuters recalls the attack on Russian student Ilya Zernov when he tried to paint over the graffiti "death to Ukraine" on a wall in Belgrade.
"One man took out a knife and started threatening me... He hit me in the right ear," Zernov said. He said that he recognized the attackers as Serbian pro-Russian ultranationalists. Zernov fled to Serbia from his native Kazan last year after publicly opposing the Russian invasion.
"Dozens of Serbian ultra-nationalist political parties and groups have openly supported Russia since 2014, and dozens of Serbian men have fought in eastern Ukraine on the side of pro-Russian separatist forces, even though Belgrade has declared it illegal," writes Reuters.
Čedomir Stojković, a Belgrade lawyer and activist whose group "Oktobar" publishes lists with the names of "Russian agents" in Serbia, said that Serbia is under "hybrid occupation" by Russia.
Stojković filed criminal charges against the Russian ambassador Aleksandar Bocan Harčenko and the director of the Security and Information Agency (BIA) Aleksandar Vulin for the activities of the Russian mercenary group Wagner in Serbia.
Reuters reports that this influence is spreading through media such as "Rasha Today" television and the "Sputnik" portal, which are allowed to work in Serbia despite being banned elsewhere in Europe, and through at least three daily newspapers that openly support the Kremlin's positions.
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