By opposing the Ohrid Agreement and its Annex to become part of the negotiation chapter 35, Serbia is closing the door to membership in the European Union, says Robert Cooper - a former mediator in the technical dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia - for Voice of America.
With this position, the retired British diplomat reacted to the claim of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, that the inclusion of the documents agreed upon by Kosovo and Serbia in the first half of 2023 in the negotiation framework would mean that the union is closing the door to Serbia.
By the way, Chapter 35 in Serbia's accession negotiations includes neighborly relations - that is, the regulation of relations with Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008.
"The European Union does not want to be part of the problem, but to solve it. Its mission is that all members of the union have some kind of, not normal, but supernormal relations with their neighbors," said Cooper, who mediated the technical dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia between 2011 and 2012.
The talks between the two parties started after the International Court of Justice, at the request of Serbia - in 2010 decided that the declaration of Kosovo's independence did not violate international law.
The Union does not want divisions
"The idea of bringing Serbia into the European Union, while refusing to recognize the independence of its neighbor and accept it as a separate state - is not at the core of the Union. This would strengthen the divisions between Serbia and Kosovo. What we want is for those divisions to disappear," Cooper told VOA.
At the summit of European leaders at the end of next week, the European Council should declare the conclusions on the enlargement - a document covering Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Turkey, Moldova and Guzia.
In the draft that Voice of America had access to, it was recommended that the Ohrid Agreement and its annex, which defined the steps on the way to the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, be included in the expectations and obligations of both parties.
"It is obvious that the sense of urgency dominates here. "No one remembers when the two sides achieved a significant breakthrough in the talks," notes Cooper - reminding of the upcoming elections for the composition of the European Parliament, which will be held in June 2024.
The beginning of the year and the achievement of the Ohrid Agreement instilled a dose of optimism that there could be results in the more than a decade-long dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia, with extremely variable results.
However, several unsuccessful meetings were held instead and harsh rhetoric was exchanged. A dark shadow over all efforts was cast by an armed attack by Serbs on Kosovo policemen in the village of Banjska, in the north of Kosovo. According to official data, there were a total of four victims, three on the side of the attackers and one member of the Kosovo police.
Normalization part of the access process
"The European Union has always indicated that the legally binding comprehensive agreement on normalization is part of the accession path of the two countries of Serbia and Kosovo. It is less relevant in the case of Kosovo, because there are currently no prospects for membership - since five EU member states do not recognize its independence," Toby Vogel - from the Brussels non-governmental Council for Democratization Policy - explains to Voice of America.
Vogel underlines that the current moment is much more important for Serbia - which has traveled a certain distance in the accession process.
"Ever since the Ohrid Agreement was reached, the position of the European Union, even though President Vučić refused to sign it, is that it is a legally binding agreement. It is a document to which both parties have verbally committed themselves. This is the moment when it will be checked," said Vogel.
The Brussels expert underlines that the disagreement of the President of Serbia is understandable to him - given that he refused to sign the Ohrid Agreement and its annex.
"However, his consent is not required - the European Union can include him in Chapter 35 independently. It seems to me that the European Union, in some way, is trying to persuade him to accept the Ohrid Agreement - as something tangible, because that has not happened so far. "Neither side acted on it – it was, until now, a dead letter," says Vogel.
EU proposal - Agreement on the road to normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia
Article 1
The two parties will develop normal good-neighborly relations with each other, based on equal rights. Both parties will mutually recognize the documents and national symbols of the other party, including passports, diplomas, license plates and customs stamps.
Article 2
Both sides will be guided by the goals and principles set forth in the United Nations Charter, especially those on the sovereign equality of all states, respect for their independence, autonomy and territorial integrity, the right to self-determination, protection of human rights and non-discrimination.
Article 3
In accordance with the Charter of the United Nations, the parties shall resolve all disputes between themselves exclusively by peaceful means and refrain from the threat or use of force.
Article 4
The parties start from the assumption that none of them can represent the other in the international sphere or act on its behalf. Serbia will not oppose Kosovo's membership in any international organization.
Article 5
Neither party will block, nor encourage others to block, the other party's progress towards the EU on its own merits. Both parties will respect the values stated in Articles 2 and 21 of the Treaty establishing the European Union.
Article 6
Although the current agreement represents a significant step in normalization, both sides will continue the dialogue process led by the EU with new momentum, which should lead to a legally binding agreement on the comprehensive normalization of their relations.
The parties agree to deepen future cooperation in the fields of economy, science and technology, traffic and connectivity, judicial and police relations, post and telecommunications, health, culture, religion, sports, environmental protection, missing and displaced persons and other similar areas through concluding specific agreements.
Details will be agreed in additional agreements in the EU-sponsored dialogue.
Article 7
Both parties undertake to establish special arrangements and guarantees, in accordance with the relevant instruments of the Council of Europe and relying on existing European experiences, in order to ensure an appropriate level of self-governance for the Serbian community in Kosovo and the ability to provide services in certain areas, including the possibility financial support from Serbia and a direct channel of communication between the Serbian community and the Government of Kosovo. The parties will formalize the status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in Kosovo and provide a strong level of protection to Serbian sites, which are part of religious and cultural heritage, in accordance with existing European models.
Article 8
The parties will exchange permanent missions. They will be established in the seats of government. Practical issues related to the establishment of missions will be discussed separately.
Article 9
Both sides take into account the commitment of the European Union and other donors to establish a special investment and financial support package for joint projects of the parties in economic development, green transition and other key areas.
Article 10
The parties will establish a joint committee, chaired by the European Union, to monitor the implementation of this agreement. Both parties will confirm their commitment to implement all previous agreements from the dialogue, which are still valid and binding.
Article 11
Both parties undertake to comply with the implementation roadmap, attached to this agreement.
The current tones from Belgrade have also made the doubt whether Aleksandar Vučić, for the first time publicly, expressed the possibility or the readiness of Serbia to interrupt or suspend the negotiations with the European Union on membership - which started back in January 2014?
"It is absolutely clear that things are not going anywhere. But I wouldn't be able to talk about the possibility of a complete break. However, an additional slowdown is possible, as in the case of Turkey," retired diplomat Robert Cooper points out, recalling the country that began accession negotiations with the union in 1987 - without almost any tangible results.
One Orban is enough for the Union
"It is also necessary to note that Serbia is not currently acting as a credible candidate for membership in the European Union. One Viktor Orban is enough for her. Serbia is a democracy in form, but is it in reality... Is the media free and does everyone have equal access to it... Will another party succeed the ruling party in the near future? I would say no,” says Cooper.
Almost in parallel with the process of the European Union institution declaring its conclusions on enlargement, Serbia is awaiting new extraordinary parliamentary and local elections during the upcoming weekend. Did the President of Serbia address the voters of the Serbian Progressive Party, which he supports, and from whose leadership he recently resigned, with a harsher stance on the European Union?
"Aleksandar Vučić is maintaining himself in power in a very successful way compared to his competitors. He's using the upcoming election as an opportunity to confirm the next steps he plans to take, which is interesting because I don't think he's made up his mind about all of them. He wants to make sure he stays in power. If he manages to secure enough support to implement difficult decisions - the ultra-nationalist current will have to come to terms with that. Otherwise, he can face the consequences - which has already happened to other political leaders in Serbia", explains Richard Kremer - associate of the American Institute for Foreign Policy Research (FPRI) for Voice of America.
The Chinese-Russian alternative, balancing and funds
An American expert considers Vučić's criticism of the European Union as unfair - pointing to the efforts of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to, as he says, bring Serbia as close as possible.
An alternative to European integration, as he underlines, would be a direction to the east and a focus on countries like China and Russia - which, as Kremer specifies, are designated as opponents and direct enemies in the National Security Strategy of the current US administration.
Expressed efforts to bring Serbia closer to European values, as well as generous cash funds - tell Tobi Vogel that the President of Serbia, just for a moment, used somewhat harsher rhetoric when talking about the European Union.
"I wonder why any tightening would be in Vučić's or Serbia's interest... As long as he manages to balance his political alignment with China and Russia and mainly, based on words, commitment to Serbia's membership in the European Union and money," the Brussels analyst points out.
"What would make sense to me is for him to be heavy with words, to use harsh rhetoric in relation to the EU - for the sake of the local media scene, which is relentless in disparaging it. They say that the union is facing ambition and disintegration - at a time when membership is supported by 30 percent of citizens, compared to 50 percent in other countries of the Western Balkans. So, why would he give up everything that enabled him to consolidate his power in Serbia?" Toby Vogel, an expert from the non-governmental Council for Democratization Policy, concludes for Voice of America.
Conclusions on the enlargement of the European Union are planned to be adopted on December 12 by the ministers for European affairs at a meeting of the Council of General Affairs. They should then be confirmed by the European Council at the summit of European leaders on December 14 and 15.
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