"Like the previous few cycles, these elections are also a struggle to preserve at least the basic elements of democracy. Serbia has been a country under an autocratic regime for years, and every election is less and less free and fair. On the other hand, only elections enable the defense of democracy and are the only way for the country to exit the system of personal rule established by Aleksandar Vučić. Therefore, the citizens of Serbia are not choosing the option that offers them the best program, but are fighting to save democracy," said Dragan Popović, director of the Center for Practical Politics, to "Vijesta".
"The upcoming elections are a referendum on the future of democracy in Serbia. Citizens will have the opportunity to decide what kind of future they want for themselves and their families. Do they want a Serbia where the Constitution is a piece of paper that has long since lost its purpose; in which basic democratic principles, such as the separation of powers and the rule of law, are not respected; where every time you want to express your disagreement, you face belittling and threats; in which journalists' houses are set on fire; in which 99 percent of the media is captured by interest groups in power; in which the degree of promotion and tolerance of violence by the authorities contributed to the fact that no one feels safe anymore; in which only crime is very well organized, while health care and education are failing undignified", said Srđan Majstorović, president of the Management Board of the Center for European Policies (CEP), in an interview with "Vijesti".
He assessed that today's elections will certainly not change Serbia for the better overnight, but that their importance lies in the hope that "a different Serbia is possible, that the government is replaceable and that faith in democracy is restored, which is never perfect but can ensure respect for rights of all citizens, regardless of who they vote for, and special respect for the opinion of the minority, which must be included in all social processes".
In today's extraordinary parliamentary elections, the citizens of Serbia will elect 250 members of the Assembly of Serbia, and they will also vote in provincial elections in Vojvodina, as well as in local elections in 65 cities and municipalities, including Belgrade.
President Aleksandar Vučić expects to confirm the dominance of his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in the competition with the pro-Western opposition coalition. Although he is not formally a candidate, he led a tireless campaign for the "Aleksandar Vučić - Serbia must not stop" list.
The main opposition bloc "Serbia Against Violence" brings together the parties that were behind months of street protests this year after two mass shootings in May in which 18 people were killed. Demands were sent from the protest to the authorities to oppose the culture of violence and for early elections to be held before the end of the year.
Opposition parties and organizations for the protection of human rights also accuse Vučić and SNS of stifling media freedom, supporting violence against political opponents, corruption and ties to organized crime. Vučić and his allies deny such accusations.
Today's parliamentary elections are the fifth since the progressives came to power in 2012.
Campaign observers reported voter pressure, fear-mongering, and abuse of public offices and institutions, and there were numerous reports of vote-buying, voter bribery, and falsification of signatures on electoral lists. Both Vučić and SNS rejected accusations of abuse.
The campaign was unequal, considering the absolute predominance in the presence of representatives of the ruling party in the media
Commenting on the campaign, Majstorović said that once again it was shown that the parties in power are not shying away from including all available resources in order to show to what extent they are ready to defend their positions.
"This is the natural state of those whose survival and relevance depends on staying in power. The campaign was extremely dirty. For the first time, we witnessed the abuse of illegally obtained private recordings in order to discredit opposition politicians. The campaign was unequal, considering the absolute predominance in the presence of representatives of the ruling party in the media".
He added that election monitoring organizations recorded more than 800 appearances by public officials at various local promotional gatherings, which indicates that the official campaign was in full swing.
Vučić is omnipresent in the campaign
Majstorović pointed out Vučić's dominant presence in party activities, as if presidential elections were being held, as a "special bizarreness" of the campaign.
Dragan Popović assessed that the campaign was, as expected, even dirtier and more aggressive than the previous one.
"The government in Serbia uses violence in a wide range, from beating political opponents to running dirty campaigns in the media and on the networks. On the other hand, all public resources in the country are harnessed for the needs of the ruling party's campaign, including media, institutions and the budget. Under those conditions, it is difficult to objectively evaluate the opposition's campaign and judge whether it could have been better".
The President of Serbia turned the election campaign into a referendum "for" or "against" him and said that he does not see himself in cohabitation if the opposition wins. Vučić, whose mandate expires in 2027, drove to the north of Serbia in his "Skoda" to visit road works, helped farmers cook crackers, made pancakes, opened an account on Tiktok, and after seven and a half years gave an interview to an independent weekly NIN. In the months leading up to the election, the government paid out one-time aid to students, pensioners and single mothers, and announced wage and pension increases in part of the public sector.
His supporters see Vučić as the only leader who can maintain stability and lead the country.
"It is difficult to find an understandable explanation for his omnipresence in the campaign for elections in which he does not participate, except for the fact that the party of which he is a member suffered a significant drop in voter confidence, so it was necessary to make the most of the image of the president of the state and his omnipresence in the media - according to the data In fact, in the 43 days of the campaign, even 41 days he had public appearances promoting the party of which he is a member," said Majstorović.
Battle for the capital
Opposition parties have more chances for good results in local elections, but this should not be seen as a 'consolation prize', says Majstorović.
"On the contrary, at the moment, the opposition parties do not manage any of the municipalities in Serbia, and any victory, especially in the larger cities, would be a huge success considering the unequal electoral conditions. Success in Belgrade is quite certain if all opposition parties remain principled in their intention not to form a coalition with the currently ruling parties after the elections. "Success in a few more major cities would already represent a serious result for the opposition and show cracks in the monolithic image that the ruling party has been trying to impose for more than ten years," Majstorović believes.
He added that at the national level, a significant presence of the opposition in the National Assembly is also expected, which in theory should contribute to its significant role and influence on the work of the parliament.
"It would be a great success if the opposition parties managed to somehow return the parliament to its constitutional competences and contribute to the return of the control function of the legislature over the executive."
Dragan Popović interprets the fact that there are almost no public opinion polls in Serbia as another indicator of bad election conditions. "Therefore, it is impossible to give more serious forecasts. I assume that the most uncertain battle will be fought for the city of Belgrade, where the chances of the government and the opposition are fairly even."
The loss of power in Belgrade would be a serious blow to SNS because the capital of 1,4 million people represents about a quarter of the electorate, and the mayor is considered one of the most influential officials in Serbia.
Violence should not be ruled out
According to the results of the survey published by the New Serbian Political Thought on December 12, the ruling SNS was in the lead with 39,8 percent of the votes, the "Serbia Against Violence" coalition had 25,6 percent of support, and the Socialist Party of Serbia of Foreign Affairs Minister Ivica Dačić, coalition partner SNS, 8,9 percent.
When asked if he expects election fraud and if he fears violence on December 18, Popović says that the elections have been irregular from the beginning and that the theft takes place long before election day, by putting pressure on public sector employees, social assistance recipients and everyone who are in any relationship with the state.
"How the election day itself will go will depend on the government's nervousness, but with progressives, violence should never be ruled out as an option."
Majstorović does not expect any major irregularities and incidents that would call into question the legality of the elections, because, in his opinion, this would be very harmful to the government, its foreign policy legitimacy and relations with international partners.
He says that in the past 10 years, it has been shown that there are not many essential irregularities on election day itself, and that the inequality of participants in the pre-election campaign, various manipulations of lists, pressure on voters and control of safe votes mostly take place before the election is held.
The elections are irregular from the beginning and the theft takes place long before the election day, putting pressure on public sector employees, on social assistance recipients and on everyone who has any kind of relationship with the state.
Asked what scenario he expects in case the opposition wins, Majstorović replied:
"According to public opinion polls that are more or less reliable, it is expected that the ruling party will record the weakest result so far and it is not certain that it will be able to form a government independently. If the opposition were to win, it would certainly be a big surprise and even a shock for the ruling party. In that case, according to the President of Serbia, the ruling party is ready to congratulate the victory. It remains to be seen whether that will happen."
If the opposition wins, the new government would face similar challenges that the first democratic government faced after the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević, Majstorović said.
He added that the restoration of democratic institutions and citizens' trust in institutions would take a lot of time and energy, given the state of institutions in Serbia today.
The new government would face similar challenges that the first democratic government faced after the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević, Srđan Majstorović said.
"At the same time, the new government would face great expectations from the outside, primarily regarding relations with Kosovo. A huge effort for the new government will be the fight against organized crime and the decriminalization of state institutions. For that, it is necessary to restore trust in the security apparatus and the judiciary, which citizens see as the most susceptible to corruption."
Popović does not believe that Vučić would peacefully hand over power, but he believes that it does not depend on him, but on the determination of the people to defend their will.
"Milošević ordered the demonstrators to be stopped by force on October 5, but in the end all the organs of the force disobeyed him," said Popović.
ProGlas is a cry of citizens' dissatisfaction
Commenting on the fact that the government characterized the Proglas initiative as subversive, Popović says that the government is capable of bringing all its voters to the elections, but that "there are no new ones that it could win over."
"To win, she needs to demotivate opposition voters and force them to stay at home. ProGlas does exactly the opposite - it motivates voters and spreads faith that change is possible. That is why he is so dangerous for the government".
The ProGlas initiative, which called on people to go to the polls in as large a number as possible, was launched by 14 people from different professions and signed by about 180 citizens of Serbia.
Majstorović says that the call to vote and freely express one's opinion about the current state of Serbia can be recognized as "subversion" only in an autocratic regime in which political pluralism is recognized as an obstacle to the achievement of one's own goals.
"ProGlas is a call for change and a cry of dissatisfaction of the citizens of Serbia. The essence of ProGlas is for citizens to empower themselves and free themselves from fear, recognize the importance of the upcoming elections and go out to vote. It is evident that support for the ruling party is in decline and that in such circumstances, a higher turnout of citizens contributes more to the chances of the opposition in the elections".
The support of the stabilocracy will backfire on the West
Asked to comment on the West's attitude towards Serbia and why the EU is losing credibility, Popović replied:
"The West still supports stabilocracy in the Balkans, clinging to authoritarian leaders it believes can deliver peace and stability. In the name of these goals, they turn a blind eye to the autocratic tendencies of the Serbian authorities. It is a completely wrong policy that will eventually backfire on the West itself. Stability is never guaranteed by autocrats, since it is in their interest to keep conflicts alive and to manipulate people's fears."
According to Majstorović, the EU is losing some of its credibility for several reasons.
"One is related to the stagnation of the Union enlargement process, despite the fact that some countries in the region conscientiously fulfilled the set conditions, going through a sometimes traumatic experience such as changing the official name of the country, in the case of North Macedonia. The second reason is in some way caused by the first and comes down to the lack of interest of the political elites, especially in Serbia, to sincerely devote themselves to fulfilling the conditions for membership in the Union. The logic is - if there is no EU enlargement, we will not change either, we are fine this way, we will look for partners in other countries".
He points out that, in such circumstances, the government in Serbia was often the source of anti-EU messages and thus significantly influenced the decline of the EU's popularity among citizens. Such an attitude, Majstorović believes, is particularly cynical considering that the EU is Serbia's largest trade partner, which realizes a surplus of over a billion euros in the exchange of agricultural products.
"The EU is the largest donor, and the member states are the largest investors who employ Serbian citizens. Despite all of the above, the citizens of Serbia are today the most skeptical in the region regarding EU accession".
Majstorović said that the normalization of relations with Kosovo is a central issue in relations with the West, especially in the current geopolitical context caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.
"Under such circumstances, the West wants to resolve the existing open issues and consolidate the Western Balkans by "anchoring" it into the Euro-Atlantic structures. Aleksandar Vučić is recognized as a partner in solving the aforementioned issues and is regularly promoted as a guarantor of peace and stability by Western partners, regardless of the constant collapse of democracy in Serbia during the previous 10 years, as evidenced by numerous reports of relevant organizations. For this reason, the EU and the West are losing the trust of even the part of Serbian citizens who support EU accession".
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