The fact that in the elections on December 17, about 30 percent of the total number of voters voted for the opposition is an important and significant piece of information. This is the best result that the opposition has achieved in the last ten years despite unfair and undemocratic elections and numerous electoral irregularities, - says Igor Bandović, from the Belgrade Center for Security Policy (BCSP).
"This tells us that for the first time a critical mass is being created in society that can cause change in the coming period," Bandović told "Vijesti".
Commenting on the government's reaction to the protests over the alleged election theft, Bandović says that the regime of Aleksandar Vučić responded with a complete unwillingness to even consider the remarks and objections of the opposition through the institutions, and then with the brutal use of force against, above all, young people.
"The arrests of more than 30 people and the charges against them show that their goal is primarily to intimidate and discourage people who are protesting expecting their electoral will to be respected."
After the riot in front of the Belgrade City Assembly on Sunday evening, the police arrested 38 people who are suspected of having committed the crimes of "undermining the constitutional order" and "violent behavior at a sports event or public gathering."
Thousands of people had gathered to demand the annulment of the parliamentary and local elections, which were judged unfair by international observers. The opposition coalition "Serbia against violence" claims that it organized a peaceful protest, but that elements and hooligans appeared who became violent, which prompted the police to react and start arresting people.
The reaction of the West is restrained, but unlike some previous times, we have neither congratulations nor enthusiasm for the victory of the Serbian Progressive Party
Domestic and international observers reported irregularities during the election process, such as vote buying and bringing voters from abroad to vote in local elections. They also noted that the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) gained an unfair advantage through media bias and the undue influence of President Vučić.
The government rejects all accusations as "lies" and claims that these elections were "the cleanest so far", and that the opposition wants to destroy the constitutional order. Vučić said that the protests were an attempt to overthrow the government with the help of "mentors from outside".
Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Aleksandar Bocan-Harchenko said after the meeting with Vučić that the president said he had "irrefutable evidence" that the West had instigated the protests. A day earlier, the outgoing Prime Minister of Serbia, Ana Brnabić, stated that evidence of Western involvement in the opposition protests was provided to Vučić by Russia.
Bandović says that Ana Brnabić's statement is ambiguous.
"She first talks about the xenophobic, conspiratorial nature of the government, which is more like the regime of Slobodan Milošević from the 90s than the Prime Minister's statement that she wants to bring the country into the European Union. Second, she talks about the closeness and apparent cooperation of the Russian security services with the domestic services, which is worrying, bearing in mind that no country in Europe has that kind of cooperation with the Russian Federation. Thirdly, she talks about the deep contempt Ana Brnabić's government shows towards the citizens who did not vote for her, revealing her authoritarian and undemocratic character".
When asked about the West's reaction to the protests, the director of the BCSP said that it was restrained, but that "unlike some previous times, we have neither congratulations nor enthusiasm for the victory of the Serbian Progressive Party".
"The German government had a harsh statement, and the statements of EU officials are not without reservations towards the election victory," says Bandović.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany announced that abuse of public resources, voter intimidation and vote buying are unacceptable for a country with the status of a candidate for EU membership.
The EU said that, although the right to peaceful demonstrations must be preserved, violence is not a solution and is unacceptable, and that complaints that there were irregularities during the elections should be properly investigated.
Regarding the position of the United States, Bandović points out that there is a difference in the statements from Washington and the embassy in Belgrade.
"In that sense, I think the State Department's position is closer to what the administration thinks about this."
The State Department has called on the authorities in Serbia to cooperate with the OSCE mission in investigating allegations of electoral irregularities.
"We note with concern the ODIHR's findings that the elections were marred by numerous procedural flaws, pressure on public officials and abuse of public resources, and that these factors, together with the systemic advantages of the ruling party, created unfair conditions," the statement said.
The American ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, said, among other things, that "violence and vandalism against state institutions have no place in a democratic society" and that "the leaders of Serbia and its citizens should bear in mind that the legitimacy of democratic processes depends on the transparency and readiness of all sides, both winners and losers, to respect the will of the people expressed in the elections".
I think that soon Kosovo and the post-election crisis, i.e. the rule of law in Serbia, will become cumulative obligations, without the fulfillment of which there will be no talk of Serbia's democratic and European future.
The day after the riots in Belgrade, Hill also stated that he has "full confidence" that Serbia will "pass through the current challenges with a strengthened democracy".
Such comments were criticized by pro-Western opposition activists, saying that Vučić seems to be supported by both Moscow and Washington.
"This clear support from both sides means that Vučić is just trading deals," said Savo Manojlović, campaign director of the "Kreni promeni" movement.
"With Russia it's about sanctions, and with the West it's about Kosovo. The sad truth is that in a sensitive geopolitical moment, every major power prefers to choose a corrupt leader with whom it can make deals".
How the crisis in Serbia will be resolved depends on many factors, according to Igor Bandović.
"First of all, from the ability of the opposition to mobilize the citizens of Serbia and to motivate them to fight for their electoral will, on the other hand from the internationalization of this crisis and, above all, the institutions of the European Union to take part in mediating about it".
He said that the third factor is missing, which is the ability of state institutions to solve problems caused by electoral fraud within the system.
"Unfortunately, being completely trapped, I think the institutions have already failed that test," Bandović concluded.
The EU should take the protests in Serbia seriously, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, together with the President of the EU Council, Charles Michel, and the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metzola, should express solidarity with the pro-European forces and request an investigation into allegations of irregularities in the elections," she said. is German analyst Johanna Deimel.
Dymel, who follows the Western Balkans and Southeastern Europe, assessed that it is currently unthinkable that Vučić's regime will be overthrown now, "not only because he himself rules with an iron fist and has many voters who support him, but also because "unfortunately, little hopes that the EU and the US will exert any real pressure" on the Serbian leader.
"The EU continued to support Vučić and watched blindly for too long as he continued to turn the country into an autocracy. That's why the change must mainly come from Serbia itself. And it will take time. "A broad opposition alliance must offer a real political alternative, a clear strategy and a vision of medium and long-term perspectives in order to appeal to Serbian citizens," Dajmel said.
The tablets temporarily reduce the pressure
When asked by "Vijesti" whether Vučić's decision to recognize Kosovo license plates is related to the post-election crisis, Igor Bandović says that the connection is direct, but that, in his opinion, it will only create temporary relief and remove pressure from the regime in Belgrade.
"There is a huge obligation and pressure related to Kosovo for the agreements that have been signed and it does not mean only the technical aspects of the agreement, but also the essential ones. I think that soon Kosovo and the post-election crisis, that is, the rule of law in Serbia, will become cumulative obligations, without the fulfillment of which there will be no talk of the democratic and European future of Serbia."
On December 25, the Government of Serbia made a decision to allow freedom of movement for all vehicles from Kosovo from January 1. The EU welcomed Serbia's decision to officially recognize Kosovo's RKS license plates and announced that it expects Pristina to make a decision that would abolish the sticker regime on license plates from Serbia.
Kosovo Prime Minister Aljbin Kurti said that Kosovo will recognize license plates from Serbia only after it is convinced that Serbia fully implements the decision on freedom of movement for vehicles with RKS plates.
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