Repeated elections in the capital of Serbia will be held on June 2 by the decision of the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić. The fact that the President of Serbia had to make a decision on this may be enough to explain why the election was repeated.
At the first moment, it seemed that the authorities would delay it, because their original idea was to hold the elections at the end of April or the beginning of May, which the opposition opposed.
The arguments of the opposition were that there was too little time to fulfill the recommendations of the ODIHR and it seemed that there would be a fierce fight about it, but to everyone's surprise the government quickly cut it short and set the deadline for June 2.
Vucic chooses concessions
Faced with internal and external pressure, Aleksandar Vučić decided on that term, because "obviously he had to make some concessions", political analyst Dragomir Anđelković assesses for DW.
"Aleksandar Vučić is afraid of an international investigation. The President of Serbia knows that the recommendations of the European Parliament can easily turn into decisions of the European Commission to launch a serious European investigation. Vučić is afraid of that investigation, because it would show how corrupt the system in Serbia is and to what extent the elections are rigged. That's why he decided to make a concession about the date in order to try to avoid fulfilling the recommendations of the OSCE", Anđelković believes.
Avoiding additional pressure
The reason is certainly the pressure that exists, and "Vučić is now trying to get away with the least damage to himself," Dragan Popović, director of the Center for Practical Politics, told DW.
"The date is something where he feels he can give in." If he had stuck to the fact that the elections would be held during the holidays in April and May, it would have inevitably opened the story of the boycott of the elections and the meaning of those elections. In this way, he prevented some additional pressure on his government", assesses Popović.
The elections at the beginning of June practically leave more time for improving electoral conditions and fulfilling the recommendations of European organizations, but, as Dragomir Anđelković notes, "if that were to happen, Vučić would lose power and that system would be dismantled."
"Therefore, Vučić will try to fulfill some things formally, but not essentially. Now imagine elections with equal media treatment or if the government stops allocating money before the elections. "He will try to avoid all that in order to make some secondary concessions," Anđelković expects.
There is no chance that these recommendations will be fulfilled, because if that were the case, the elections would already be fair and regular, notes Dragan Popović.
"Each recommendation identified by the ODIHR essentially boils down to the political will of the regime not to allow fair and free elections, so even minimal concessions are achieved only after great pressure. Bearing in mind that Vučić is still not so weak that he would make some big concessions, I think there is nothing wrong with having better electoral conditions", says the director of the Center for Practical Politics.
Elections already illegitimate?
In recent days, the media in Serbia have already recorded cases of registration of voters from other places in Belgrade, and it is clear that the regime will not give up all tricks and manipulations in the repeated elections. The conquest of Belgrade was declared a top priority in the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), which is evident from the almost unprecedented engagement of party activists from the ruling parties.
Party quotas also jumped, so now, instead of, for example, the previous twenty, it is necessary to provide at least 50 safe votes. Some directors put entire public companies at the service of progressive campaigns. In addition, the presence of Vučić in the campaign for the Belgrade elections is perhaps even more intense than before.
"Vučić is simply not ready to lose power, and he will certainly continue to cheat in the elections," says Dragomir Anđelković. "It is also clear that this is a violation of the Constitution. Since he is no longer the president of SNS, Vučić has no right to engage in this way. This shows that we have a personal regime, and it is by no means compatible with a democratic environment," emphasizes the DW interlocutor.
The fact that some information about Dragan Popović has appeared in the public testifies that "some restraints are being loosened within the SNS as well." "It is about very precise information as it is organized. I would say that all this is part of a complex political reality that we live in, where on the one hand we have a desperate attempt by the regime to keep the capital, and on the other hand the pressure of the democratic public is not letting up," Popović points out.
The appearance of Aleksandar Vučić on the ballot, and in any campaign for local elections, perhaps best reflects the nature of the authoritarian regime, adds Dragan Popović.
Boycott is not a solution
For now, the opposition seems ready to act, but the question remains whether and by what political means better election conditions can be achieved.
"If the opposition started protests now and called on citizens to passively resist, I think Vučić would be in big trouble." When many people are on the streets, there is a much greater chance that the European Commission will react. That is why he will try to manipulatively avoid further irritating the opposition, but the opposition must not agree to that game. So it's okay to have some requests on paper, but that's not enough," Anđelković believes.
Judging by the government's first steps, it is difficult to expect significant improvements in electoral conditions. This raises the question of the opposition's further steps and whether, for example, boycotting the elections will be one of the possible solutions. Dragan Popović thinks that it is "never a good solution".
"The answer is actually what is being done now. On the one hand, pressure, and on the other, a stronger campaign. "The job is not easy, but it is not impossible either, because we had worse election conditions, so the opposition won," concludes Popović.
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