Declaring that the "vital interests" of Serbia are threatened, President Aleksandar Vučić has caused concern for stability in the Balkans, and this should be taken seriously, French researcher Floran Parmantier said today for the Figaro newspaper, drawing a parallel with Ukraine.
On March 26, Vučić announced that in the last 48 hours he had received information that the national interests of Serbia and Republika Srpska (RS) were directly threatened, but he did not specify in what way.
"Difficult days are ahead of Serbia. At this moment, it is not easy to say what kind of news we have received in the last 48 hours. They directly threaten our vital national interests, both of Serbia and Srpska," Vučić wrote on Instagram at the time.
Parmantije said that Vučić's statement about the threat to the vital interests of Serbia can be interpreted in two ways.
"The statement may be part of the president's oratory, then Serbia will remain in the negotiation game, or we are facing a conflict. I personally favor the first option," said the expert.
According to him, the second option about a possible conflict can only be if "Serbia considers that it is armed enough to go on the offensive, knowing that Russia will not come to defend it", since it is occupied with Ukraine.
Parmantije expressed doubt that Serbia would risk militarily supporting the potential secession of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"Militarily, it's doubtful. But the war in Ukraine has nevertheless opened up another front in the Middle East. If ever in the last 25 years there was an opportunity to renew the conflict, it might be now. Would the Serbian president risk being excluded from the Council of Europe? Probably. Would he succeed in taking revenge for the scenario from 25 years ago? That is not the most likely outcome," the expert assessed.
However, if that scenario were to occur, it would likely happen in the near future.
Regarding the ties between Serbia and Russia, Parmantije believes that Russia is a useful card for Vučić because it allows him to gather some of the nationalists on the internal level and to show that Serbia is not alone on the international stage.
He said that there are two aspects to Serbia's possible interest in entering the conflict.
"There are two aspects. First, to wage a high-intensity war, you need people and a lot of ammunition. I have no doubt that there are nationalist groups that want to fight. However, the Balkans today is in a relatively weakened demographic situation," Parmantje assessed. and added that in the event of a high-intensity war, he does not see how "Serbia could sustainably keep its gains".
On the other hand, the possibility of an armed conflict would force Bosnia to make concessions. The overall geopolitical situation is not in Bosnia's favor because the Europeans certainly have fewer opportunities to help them than two years ago. Production capacities and supplies are directed to Ukraine, the expert added.
Bonus video:
