Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for joint production of weapons with the countries of the Western Balkans. Can these countries help? And why are Germany and France supporting it?
Since Russia invaded Ukraine more than two years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly appealed for military aid from the US and the EU. At the Ukraine-Southeast Europe summit in Tirana, Albania, at the end of February, he went a step further and proposed joint production of weapons with the countries of the Western Balkans.
The question arises whether the Western Balkan region is technically capable of fulfilling Zelenski's wish. And if so, will Serbia, which is known for its strong political ties with Russia, be willing to do so?
Why did Zelenski single out the Western Balkans?
"Although the countries of the Western Balkans do not have a significant production of large weapons, they have numerous ammunition factories, and ammunition is what Ukraine is interested in," says Katarina Djokic, a researcher in the Arms Transfer Program of the International Institute for Peace Research in Stockholm.
Djokic told DW that most of the arms production in the region is concentrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia, with several companies producing ammunition in a wide range of calibers and for different types of weapons, including artillery systems and mortars.
"We have little reliable data on how much ammunition they could produce annually - and it is certainly far from Ukraine's current needs - but since Ukraine is looking for as much ammunition as it can get, the interest in Western Balkan production is not surprising," Djokic said.
Which countries of the Western Balkans produce weapons?
The latest report (2021) of the Southeast and Eastern European Organization for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (SEESAC) says that Serbia is the leading exporter of weapons and ammunition in the region, with 65,79 percent of total exports, with a profit of some 1,2 billion euros. It is followed by BiH, which accounts for 31,75% of the region's total exports.
According to data provided by the Balkan countries themselves, Albania exports ammunition, BiH and Montenegro export 12,7 mm caliber weapons and automatic weapons, ammunition, bombs and missiles, North Macedonia mainly exports ammunition and bombs, while Serbia exports a wider range of ammunition and weapons , including bombs, shells, torpedoes, mines, missiles and similar munitions of war.
What is Serbia's position on weapons for Ukraine?
Although Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić warmly greeted President Zelenski at the summit in Tirana, he did not make an official statement about Zelenski's request for joint production of weapons.
The only statement in this regard was made by Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, who told reporters that President Zelenski "talked about the possibility of cooperation, which implies investment, production and cooperation, and of course everyone said yes, not only Albania".
Although Serbia condemned the Russian war in Ukraine, it never imposed sanctions on that country.
Katarina Đokić, who is a Serb herself, tells DW that Serbia's foreign policy and security position "can be described as opportunistic rather than oriented towards Russia".
She says that this is also reflected in the export of weapons from the country: "It is not a question of whether Serbia would agree to export ammunition to Ukraine, because, based on available intelligence sources, Serbia is already doing it, albeit through third countries," she told DW. .
"There have been a lot of photos circulating on social media showing recently produced Serbian ammunition being used by Ukrainian troops. However, the Government of Serbia perceives this as a sensitive issue in the domestic political arena and will probably not publicly support such exports."
According to her, last year, when US documents were leaked (Pentagon Leaks) that Serbia was ready to export weapons to Ukraine - or that it was already doing so - the President of Serbia ordered the temporary suspension of all ammunition exports, officially, in order to give priority to the supply of the Serbian Armed Forces , but most likely to limit the damage.
Judging by his recent statements, the argument "we cannot export ammunition because we need it" is still being used, but this does not mean that Serbian-made ammunition will not find its way to Ukraine.
What could Albania do?
Ermal Jauri, chairman of the George C. Marshall Albania Alumni Association, sees the recent NATO-funded modernization of Kuchovo Air Base in Albania as a perfect example of what could be done.
With the right investment, he says, former ammunition production facilities and military bases in Albania could be modernized and returned to full functionality in a short period of time. Before the 90s, these centers produced mortar ammunition, Kalashnikov, Makarov and Parabellum pistols, Simonov rifles, offensive and defensive grenades and anti-personnel mines.
With or without EU financial support?
Josep Borelj, the EU's top diplomat, earlier this year asked member states to temporarily suspend arms exports to countries other than Ukraine.
The question arises, which European countries are in a position to help Ukraine and the Western Balkans to produce weapons together?
"The German government has shown interest in financing the procurement of ammunition for Ukraine from non-EU countries. "France has also indicated that it would be open to the purchase of ammunition for Ukraine that is not produced in the EU," says Djokic. "Given that Berlin and Paris are also involved, the use of EU funds seems more likely."
According to Ermal Jauri, this kind of initiative cannot be implemented without the support of the Western Balkan allies in NATO and the EU. "This is not because the allies are unable to produce ammunition and combat equipment themselves, but their support for the creation of such an idea in the Western Balkans, I think, would significantly reduce the costs of producing this ammunition and military equipment," he said.
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